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1982vett

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Had a little fun with your chart.



I believe that current market conditions across all sectors make charting a difficult tool to trust near term. As in this chart being an 8-year chart, the risk in prices retuning to the $75 level is not an immediate risk but a long term risk. However doubtful it migtht be, current speculators fleeing to raise cash or speculators selling a down market because they can, could just as easily slingshot the price to the $1.35 area as they have to return to the market and buy to deliver the beef they do not have.
 

1982vett

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Another possible scenario. Remember the BSE scare. Market took about a $30 short term dip. Current market is in about a $35 dip. Will have to wait and see if it is short term or not. Only tell is current market failed to reach the upward trend line before breaking to the downside.

Note: the time frame of each market decline in the last 5 years came near the end of the year and lasted thru the first of the year. This information suggest the market is near a bottom.
 
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HerefordSire

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In your first chart, the upward slanted line becomes resistance since it was previosuly support and was broken by selling pressure. The chart is a monthly chart so one candle is one month. As a side note, there were not too many times where three months of down candles were registered in a row. I am looking for price to trade to upper resistance, where the upward slanted line is, and sellers should send it downwards further. Could take many years to reach 75. One way to project price reversals is to take the high of 120, subtract the low of 70 which is 50, then take 62.128% (Fibonacci number) of the difference, or around 31 and deduct from the high of 120 which is 89. As you can see, 89 was just landed on and represents an excellent reversal entry point for the short to mid term play up to the upward slanting line resistance area.
 

RD-Sam

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My take on all of this is that you have had three main factors causing the price to drop recently. 1. Selloff due to drought conditions, which has flooded the market. 2. Selloff due to the CCS in the black angus, also flooded the market. 3. The economy downturn, people aren't spending money on pricey beef.

I figure the first two are about over for the most part. The economy is anyones guess, I give it three years and it starts to turn around, could happen sooner though. You will probably start to see alot of ranches building herds back in the near future, so seedstock sales may be good. Beef sales may take a bit longer, but should come back up. That the opinion of this amateur. :lol2:
 

Stocker Steve

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I asked once why there are departments and publications focused on technical analysis. I was told because (some) people actually bought and sold based on all this hocus pocus.
 

Angus Cowman

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Ok here is my opinion and not meaning to offend anyone
the economy has a lot to do with it but it does run in cycles and here is one of the reasons as I see it

Bill and all his buddies who have good jobs in town and bought cows when they were selling good and has made a few $ the last few yrs and tells everyone that they are a cowmen,

ok then the economy gets tight cow prices drop Bill and his buddies aren't making any money on their cows because the market is flooded and things are tight around the house so Bill and all of his buddies wives say sell those cows we can't afford them because they are taking money away from them getting their nails done and the kids need new $200 shoes although the last pair hasn't even got dirty yet

So Bill and his buddies sell their cows and that runs the market even lower so now all these guys that had only 20 - 40 hd are out in about a yr the market stabilizes and gains a little and the economy gets a little better

then in about 2 yrs Bill and his buddies have a lil more money and start buying cows again and lo and behold the market starts raising again for a couple more yrs because everyone is buying cows

then it starts all over again I have watched this for several yrs and it seems to run in 5-7yr cycles
I may be way out in left field but I don't beleive I am

So that is my opinion on the situation and no I don't like it but that is the way it seems to go
 

kenny thomas

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I totally agree Angus Cowman. In my area if cows are high I can sell them to anyone who passes by but if they are cheap I can't give them away on the farm.
 

1982vett

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Stocker Steve":2wnulj0m said:
Smaller solid mouth red spring calvers are going for $535 each here.

Count your area as lucky, around here they might bring $.35 - $.40. Most everything goes to slaughter now.
 
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HerefordSire

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Stocker Steve":127tk4ox said:
I asked once why there are departments and publications focused on technical analysis. I was told because (some) people actually bought and sold based on all this hocus pocus.

There are two sides to trades. In my experience, fundamental and technical traders usually trade to each other such that they are opposing each other on a trade. One usually sells while the other buys. It really doesn't matter which technique is used. What does matter is the profit after a closing trade. If technical traders are making allot of money, this trend will continue. However, the big money is being made in program trading. Program trading is the result of someone like me writing logic against a real time financial interface server which allows a client computer program to execute logic. This logic occurs without human intervention. For example, I can use all historic digital trading data known to man as the database. I can hire a couple of degreed statistical doctors to build models. I can even implement neural networks to find non-linear patterns in linear data. Once the pattern is located in the model, the same pattern is considered repeatable in the future, as markets are one of those things in nature that appear to repeat in cycles.
 

Stocker Steve

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Sounds like feeding cattle at a loss with other peoples money and the cheap dollar helping exports are both things of the past:

Grand Forks Agweek
Published: 11/26/2008
WICHITA, Kan. — The number of cattle going into Kansas feedlots is taking a steep dive.

That comes as the consumer appetite for beef wanes amid the economic downturn. High input costs for fattening that beef are also driving the losses.

Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service reports that Kansas had 2.23 million head of cattle in the state’s big feedyards as of Nov. 1. That number is down 8 percent from a year ago.

Cattlemen during October also placed 15 percent fewer cattle on feed. That means the available slaughter supply will remain tight in the coming months.

Marketings in October were down 12 percent from the same month last year.

Kansas Livestock Association spokesman Todd Domer says the numbers reflect the con-tinued liquidation in this business. He says the cattle feeding sector had huge losses this year.
 

Stocker Steve

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A neighbor bragged this weekend he bought a truck load of wet corn for $2.17 per bushel.
Calves have come up about 5 to 10cents the last couple weeks. Could be a bottom, then again...
 

TexasBred

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HerefordSire":23xvd7qx said:
KMacGinley":23xvd7qx said:
Ahh, but corn is down to $2.50 it is going to turn around.

Dec. Corn up 7.07% today to $314.25 I think you meant $3.1425 per bushel...basis is $.40 under the boardhttp://finance.yahoo.com/futures?t=grains

Jan. Feeders up 1.44% today to $87.90

http://finance.yahoo.com/futures?t=livestock

Looks like your theory bit the dust, for today.
 

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