Corn
- Thread starter somn
- Start date
Help Support CattleToday:
- Status
The Bachelor
Well-known member
Dagnabit!!!! Wrong again........
larryshoat
Well-known member
Since I raise corn and can sell whatever I don't feed the high cost of corn helps me . If I can pencil a profit on the cattle above costs, total dollars I'm ahead at higher corn . Though at a $1.50 I can still collect an LDP . I think we're in a time right now where the guy thats's diversified is a little better off . I've got friends and family that are so big in hogs, all their eggs are in one basket, and right now the hog thing don't look good.
Larry
Larry
jbar
Well-known member
i voted for $1.50,but i would rather feed $4.97 at a profit than $1.50 at a loss.that is what matters the profit.and this is not a no brainer with the high price of corn it hurts the pork and chickens and will help the grass fed beef ,it also drives the price of almost all food up and corn price might fall but once everything else is jacked up it will not be so quick to fall? might not see $1.50 corn again.
A
Anonymous
$1.50
High grain prices will hurt all producers.
Technology has been keeping producers of all commodities alive for years. The rate of yields and efficiency have stayed in step with the rising cost of inputs. Well, now high grain prices have changed the game - more for non-grain producers. Most inputs are going to be priced against what they think grain producers can afford to pay for them- look at the cost of nitrates, glyphosate, equipment, you name it - it is on the rise.
High grain prices will hurt all producers.
Technology has been keeping producers of all commodities alive for years. The rate of yields and efficiency have stayed in step with the rising cost of inputs. Well, now high grain prices have changed the game - more for non-grain producers. Most inputs are going to be priced against what they think grain producers can afford to pay for them- look at the cost of nitrates, glyphosate, equipment, you name it - it is on the rise.
mnmtranching
Well-known member
One thing about 4.97 per bushel corn is, it will end the corn/ethanol fiasco :lol: unless of coarse the tax payer ups the subsidy.
A
Anonymous
You are right- without the govt. incentives corn will come down but I do not forecast it ant time soon.
Why? The $0.52 tax credit the blenders get helps as well as the MTBE regulations will keep it in business. Without those 2 corn for ethanol is toast- but there are too many people behind it for the govt. to allow the true economics of it to play out. I will wait until after the Prospective Plantings report in MArch to decide if I will get long corn again. I will remain long bean, bean oil, and wheat futures before the report.
Why? The $0.52 tax credit the blenders get helps as well as the MTBE regulations will keep it in business. Without those 2 corn for ethanol is toast- but there are too many people behind it for the govt. to allow the true economics of it to play out. I will wait until after the Prospective Plantings report in MArch to decide if I will get long corn again. I will remain long bean, bean oil, and wheat futures before the report.
larryshoat
Well-known member
Is ethanol why we have $10 wheat and $14 beans . I've said for months that either corn is too cheap or beans are too high . Don't have a clue which is which but, I don't think they can stay that way .
Larry
Larry
mnmtranching
Well-known member
Yes Larry, It's Ethanol. And the increased demand for corn ethanol thats been putting the pressure on acres available for other feed grains. Corn is the number 1 crop and all feed crops including wheat will follow the corn markets.
larryshoat
Well-known member
I don't know, I've been forward contracting my crops because I think it might go down and cotracting feed because I think it might go up . Talk about confused .
Larry
Larry
somn
Well-known member
So you are telling us the price of wheat is high because of ethanol. Are they using wheat for the production of ethanol now? You are the all knowing when it comes to ethanol so I'm sure you are correct. I think the price of wheat is high because of supply and demand. 53.9 million acres of wheat in 1999 60.5 million acres of wheat in 2007. It is not an acerage problem it is a supply problem. A supply shortage is a result of a demand for a product. Now maybe they are using it to produce ethanol you are the all knowing on that. I have not seen it as the feedstock for any of the plants I've ever been to. I think this might be one of those cases like roundup wears off. Consider the source of said statement when considering the truth.mnmtranching":1mc0wd9m said:
A
Anonymous
Somn,
Ethanol is part of the cause for the grain crops to increase. In the wheat market- the U.S. is currently the only game in town due to a shortage of world production. Wheat and soy acres will continue to be displaced to satisfy the demand for corn. With all that being said- hedge funds are also very active in these markets as well- those funds are like electronic herds moving the market any which way they please. We have not seen increases in cotton and sugar because both of those have healthy Stocks-to-Use ratios and neither of their demands are increasing.
Ethanol is part of the cause for the grain crops to increase. In the wheat market- the U.S. is currently the only game in town due to a shortage of world production. Wheat and soy acres will continue to be displaced to satisfy the demand for corn. With all that being said- hedge funds are also very active in these markets as well- those funds are like electronic herds moving the market any which way they please. We have not seen increases in cotton and sugar because both of those have healthy Stocks-to-Use ratios and neither of their demands are increasing.
somn
Well-known member
The price of wheat is being driven by demand. The millers are not paying a plus basis on cash wheat because of speculators fighting over acres they are paying a plus basis because they need wheat to mill plain and simple. It is a supply shortage. Now a shortage of wheat will encouarge more acres be planted to wheat. That in itself will raise prices for soybeans and corn because the end consumers of both soybeans and corn will be trying to keep the acres they need to meet their demand. So we should really be blaming wheat for all the high grain prices. Demand for a product is what raises the price of products if they need to meet demand they need to buy acres when trying to get acres away from other crops now those end users need to raise their prices. Blaming ethanol is pointing the finger the wrong way. There are piles of corn at elevators everywhere some have been there for 3 to 4 years. Corn is trying to protect it's acres same as beans. The commodity with short stocks and high demand is where the price increases start. And wheat is it. As a trader you know that all to well.Sugarman":2oo9j1cn said:
mnmtranching
Well-known member
Wonder what it would be like to know "almost nothing about almost everything" :frowns:
somn
Well-known member
Ok then all knowing what drives prices supply or acres? Do you see cotton or sugar rising? Are they not also planted on acres of land? Wonder why they haven't moved higher? Did you read sugarmans post or do you know more than him also. They have a positive stocks-to-use ratio and there demand is not rising. Keep working on an explanation about how roundup wears off.mnmtranching":16qgkxtb said:
auctionboy
Well-known member
Cotton and sugar are not competing as livestock feed. It tends to make my cows act hyper.
larryshoat
Well-known member
Grain is going up because enough speculators think that it can keep going up .One day they will decide that it's over and that stuff will drop just like it went up .No market ever gets so high that it can't go right back to where it came from .
Larry
Larry
auctionboy
Well-known member
I think as corn gets higher it is replaced by other grains in rations and those other grains demand goes up so there price follows! The "fault" is all on corn based ethnol. I thought this was obvious?somn":3cgjo8p1 said:
- Status
