Controlling Corona ?

[Stocker Steve]

Countries that seem to have gotten a handle on Corona had massive testing programs and contact tracing, or hard core quarantine. We seem to focusing on shelter in place to slow the rate of infection, but this will not allow us to get it under control. So really no end in sight till we achieve herd immunity? Just keep sending government checks till then?

 

[Redgully]

Personally i think the U.S. is in big trouble and is in for a real struggle. Desperately hoping for a vaccine real soon and some drugs that can control the symptoms.

Wonder if this will be remember as the U.S.A. virus in years to come, sincerely hope not.

 

[regolith]

herd immunity might be achieved faster than you think.

I did a google search of 'mitigation versus suppression' the other day. The resulting articles are interesting food for thought.
The key here... my country is in lockdown attempting to entirely *suppress* the virus and the reality is they *have* to be just to slow it down. There are lots of things I don't agree with on how it's being handled, but I do recognise that.
In fact with the sheer number of people outside of lockdown they may even struggle to slow it down by much. I'm reckoning around 70% of the population would have to be immune/out of contact while the lockdowns proceed to slow it down sufficiently that it will be safe to gradually lift the lockdown procedures without vaccinating.

Unless there's a vaccine soon the high risk group is going to need to take some care for quite a long time, regardless of herd immunity.

 

[Redgully]

herd immunity might be achieved faster than you think.

I did a google search of 'mitigation versus suppression' the other day. The resulting articles are interesting food for thought.
The key here... my country is in lockdown attempting to entirely *suppress* the virus and the reality is they *have* to be just to slow it down. There are lots of things I don't agree with on how it's being handled, but I do recognise that.
In fact with the sheer number of people outside of lockdown they may even struggle to slow it down by much. I'm reckoning around 70% of the population would have to be immune/out of contact while the lockdowns proceed to slow it down sufficiently that it will be safe to gradually lift the lockdown procedures without vaccinating.

Unless there's a vaccine soon the high risk group is going to need to take some care for quite a long time, regardless of herd immunity.

I agree, nobody wants it but it could be two years until a vaccine is available and we can't stay locked down that long. Now here in Australia we may be able to extinguish the virus but when we open the borders it will just be back to square one. It really needs to spread slowly so those that need help get it. If it spreads fast then lots of people will needlessly die. It is a tricky situation. Best we could hope for here is to eradicate it and keep international borders closed until a vaccine is available and hope that is less than 12 months away.

 

[SmokinM]

Hard to control something they don’t know anything about. The fact is it is much more widespread than you think and ALOT of people are asymptomatic but they don’t have the capacity to test so nobody knows. Several cases here found by “accident”. Best you can hope for is that the first strain does give you some immunity to the more severe strain. Shelter in place is a good idea in theory however it doesn’t work because you get some idiot like I saw yesterday in the grocery store with a nasty cough covering his mouth with a paper towel instead of staying home. WHAT ARE YOU DOING DUDE! Herd immunity is really what has to be achieved and is probably not as far off as you think as again for every one they test there are probably ten or more that never even know they had it or it has been passed over as they didn’t meet test criteria.

All eyes now will be watching what happens as seasons change in the two hemispheres. Will it die out in summer as hoped here and will it live on south of the equator as winter hits there. Plan and prepare for a repeat performance next year is the best guess.

 

[Stocker Steve]

There is a 2015 Ted Talk by Bill Gates on viral epidemics. His point was that we spend huge amounts on nuclear properness - - but the much bigger threat is viral. He had a high level plan to boost medical preparedness, partner with military on logistics, and increase biomedical research efforts.

Unfortunate that we don't have more competence in our government agencies. Mailing out more Trump checks is not going to get r done. I am sure there will be a medical miracle at some point, but we should expect more than that.

 

[CG1]

herd immunity might be achieved faster than you think.

I did a google search of 'mitigation versus suppression' the other day. The resulting articles are interesting food for thought.
The key here... my country is in lockdown attempting to entirely *suppress* the virus and the reality is they *have* to be just to slow it down. There are lots of things I don't agree with on how it's being handled, but I do recognise that.
In fact with the sheer number of people outside of lockdown they may even struggle to slow it down by much. I'm reckoning around 70% of the population would have to be immune/out of contact while the lockdowns proceed to slow it down sufficiently that it will be safe to gradually lift the lockdown procedures without vaccinating.

Unless there's a vaccine soon the high risk group is going to need to take some care for quite a long time, regardless of herd immunity.

I thought herd immunity didn’t apply here? That second exposures are possible and they have seen it in some severe cases?

 

[Buck Randall]

herd immunity might be achieved faster than you think.

I did a google search of 'mitigation versus suppression' the other day. The resulting articles are interesting food for thought.
The key here... my country is in lockdown attempting to entirely *suppress* the virus and the reality is they *have* to be just to slow it down. There are lots of things I don't agree with on how it's being handled, but I do recognise that.
In fact with the sheer number of people outside of lockdown they may even struggle to slow it down by much. I'm reckoning around 70% of the population would have to be immune/out of contact while the lockdowns proceed to slow it down sufficiently that it will be safe to gradually lift the lockdown procedures without vaccinating.

Unless there's a vaccine soon the high risk group is going to need to take some care for quite a long time, regardless of herd immunity.

I thought herd immunity didn’t apply here? That second exposures are possible and they have seen it in some severe cases?

Herd immunity definitely still applies. While there have been cases of people getting it twice, those are rare. Immunity can always be overwhelmed if the level of exposure is high enough, but most people are going to be safe for a period of time after they recover.

 

[Buck Randall]

There is a 2015 Ted Talk by Bill Gates on viral epidemics. His point was that we spend huge amounts on nuclear properness - - but the much bigger threat is viral. He had a high level plan to boost medical preparedness, partner with military on logistics, and increase biomedical research efforts.

Unfortunate that we don't have more competence in our government agencies. Mailing out more Trump checks is not going to get r done. I am sure there will be a medical miracle at some point, but we should expect more than that.

Nonsense. I've been told that no one could have seen this coming. ;-)

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

There is a 2015 Ted Talk by Bill Gates on viral epidemics. His point was that we spend huge amounts on nuclear properness - - but the much bigger threat is viral. He had a high level plan to boost medical preparedness, partner with military on logistics, and increase biomedical research efforts.

Unfortunate that we don't have more competence in our government agencies. Mailing out more Trump checks is not going to get r done. I am sure there will be a medical miracle at some point, but we should expect more than that.

Nonsense. I've been told that no one could have seen this coming. ;-)

Enough of the Cuomo and de Blasio bashing already.

 

[greybeard]

All eyes now will be watching what happens as seasons change in the two hemispheres. Will it die out in summer as hoped here and will it live on south of the equator as winter hits there. Plan and prepare for a repeat performance next year is the best guess.

As of a few days ago.

 

[Aaron]

There is a 2015 Ted Talk by Bill Gates on viral epidemics. His point was that we spend huge amounts on nuclear properness - - but the much bigger threat is viral. He had a high level plan to boost medical preparedness, partner with military on logistics, and increase biomedical research efforts.

Unfortunate that we don't have more competence in our government agencies. Mailing out more Trump checks is not going to get r done. I am sure there will be a medical miracle at some point, but we should expect more than that.

Nonsense. I've been told that no one could have seen this coming. ;-)

Enough of the Cuomo and de Blasio bashing already.

But it's New York. Aren't they supposed to be so much smarter than the rest of us? :roll:

 

[Aaron]

There is a 2015 Ted Talk by Bill Gates on viral epidemics. His point was that we spend huge amounts on nuclear properness - - but the much bigger threat is viral. He had a high level plan to boost medical preparedness, partner with military on logistics, and increase biomedical research efforts.

Unfortunate that we don't have more competence in our government agencies. Mailing out more Trump checks is not going to get r done. I am sure there will be a medical miracle at some point, but we should expect more than that.

Nonsense. I've been told that no one could have seen this coming. ;-)

It was a colossal f-up by all world leaders. By the 1st day of outbreak in China, all flights should have been shut down from China and all citizens told to get their asses home from around the world.

Now there is a steady flow of citizens returning to every country from vacation, always putting pressure on the containment system. Just had one local come back here from US, red hot positive. Luckily she knew she was not right and went straight from border to home and into quarantine, so she did not interact with anyone.

 

[callmefence]

All eyes now will be watching what happens as seasons change in the two hemispheres. Will it die out in summer as hoped here and will it live on south of the equator as winter hits there. Plan and prepare for a repeat performance next year is the best guess.

As of a few days ago.

How many cases does a red dot indicate?

 

[greybeard]

Depends on the size of the red dot.

It's an interactive map..click on any red dot and it will tell you how many cases that country has and the data behind those cases. It's how I knew how many cases they had in the countries on and south of the equator.
A menu allows you to narrow it down to separate nations and you can then click on any dot and get data for each state and most towns..or at minimum, county.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A different one:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[Stocker Steve]

They are blaming visitors. Wasn't me.

Projection is that south Florida is the next hot spot. A bad mix of spring break party crowds and (NY) retirees.

Wife just got a 75% off offer for plane fares. Would rather fence than visit a hot spot.

 

[SmokinM]

If they can ever contain this down to Florida, New York and California I would never have to worry about catching it.

 

[greybeard]

Projection is that south Florida is the next hot spot. A bad mix of spring break party crowds and (NY) retirees.

Wife just got a 75% off offer for plane fares. Would rather fence than visit a hot spot.

Same is being said about New Orleans. Post Mardi Gras cases. Lots of people from all over the country went to N.O. for the mardi gras then returned home to 'wherever'. (Mardi Gras ended the last week of Feb and N.O saw over 1 million visitors that week)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/coronavirus-new-orleans-mardi-gras/2020/03/26/8c8e23c8-6fbb-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html


Next week, CDC is going to reccomend that all Americans wear masks in their everyday life, whereas they have previously said only healthcare providers need to.

On Saturday, Weill Cornell’s Dr. Matt McCarthy reported that the Centers for Disease Control will revise their recommendations on protective masks.

In the next ten days, the CDC guidelines will reportedly change to advising Americans to wear masks “in everyday life.” This contrasts with the current guidelines, which only recommend masks for high-risk groups like health care workers.

This will make the mask shortage even more dire.

Something to consider:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phP9k3sxm3U

(there are lots of videos on how to do this. Everything you need is available at any big box store that sells fabric )

 

[Stocker Steve]

So CDC now concerned about no symptom spreaders and not enough corona test capacity? Seems like they are behind the curve, again.

SIL is a nurse and has a supposed corona case in her small town hospital, but no test results... Tough duty.

 

[CG1]

Although Canada isn’t testing as radically as they could and maybe should I think the social distancing thing is helping. Most my friends are nurses all working at one of the big 17 hospitals in BC where we are. They are seeing cases but also seeing dead ER rooms otherwise. I think Canadians are taking social distancing seriously and I think it is working.