Contrary

[gcreekrch]

To some opinions, northern cattle sell ok.

 

[Ky hills]

Yep, and apparently they ain’t all black calves either.

 

[Travlr]

Has the cattle business changed drastically in the last ten or so years?

Any producer when I had my ranches was trying their best to wean and sell 500 pound plus calves, and buyers were looking for higher weights than that if they could get them. Now ranches are selling at 325#? Why?

Or does # mean something different in Canada?

 

[Lee VanRoss]

Has the cattle business changed drastically in the last ten or so years?

[Any producer when I had my ranches was trying their best to wean and sell 500 pound plus calves, and buyers were looking for higher weights than that if they could get them. Now ranches are selling at 325#? Why?]

Or does # mean something different in Canada?

I think the answer may be in the emphasis on pounds per acre vs pounds per head. Which would have greater value?
40,000 lb @ 500 lb per head or 40,000 lb @ 325 lb per head Use the market rate for each weight category.
The cows can be a subject of discussion as the lighter weight can come from calving later when more grass is available.
The lighter weight can come from smaller more efficient cows that for the sake of argument are 300 lb less weight which
should save 3% per day of feed on 300 lb of the first 40 head. Most cattlemen will do tomorrow what they did today.

 

[gcreekrch]

Light calves are lates and heifer’s calves for the most part. We expect a heifer to bring home a calf and breed back. Nothing more. They will be backgrounded and go to grass next summer.

 

[gcreekrch]

Yep, and apparently they ain’t all black calves either.

Certainly no Corriente blood either.

 

[Rmc]

Now ranches are selling at 325#? Why?

Can you get a 325 lb calf to 525 for less then $180 Us buying feed. I can’t in these conditions and feed prices .
I would sell every steer calf at 325 lbs on the place if I could get over $950 us a piece for them
Well done gcreek

 

[wbvs58]

There looks like a lot of potential in those light ones Dave.

Ken

 

[uplandnut]

Well done on the calves, and welcome back from your hiatus.

 

[Dave]

Semi loads of reputation cattle sure helps the price. I don't know the exchange rate now. But you are ball park or a little higher than what load lots of reputation calves that size are bringing here. The market is doing good.

 

[gcreekrch]

Semi loads of reputation cattle sure helps the price. I don't know the exchange rate now. But you are ball park or a little higher than what load lots of reputation calves that size are bringing here. The market is doing good.

Our dollar yesterday was about 79 cents US

 

[Travlr]

Can you get a 325 lb calf to 525 for less then $180 Us buying feed. I can’t in these conditions and feed prices .
I would sell every steer calf at 325 lbs on the place if I could get over $950 us a piece for them
Well done gcreek

My point being that the cow is doing the work with no supplements required. Ya gotta feed her whether she's feeding a calf or not anyways so why not be feeding a cow that's raising a calf that will wean at 500+ in 205 days? Hell, if a cow can't do that she's going to be culled.

 

[Rmc]

My point being that the cow is doing the work with no supplements required. Ya gotta feed her whether she's feeding a calf or not anyways so why not be feeding a cow that's raising a calf that will wean at 500+ in 205 days? Hell, if a cow can't do that she's going to be culled.

Lots of ways to make a buck in cattle.
Like the old saying “if you always do what you’ve always done . You will always get what you’ve always got.”
If I can pull the calf 30-60 days earlier . That is feed left in the field . Hay is $350 a ton . If I can save 1 ton of hay feeding by selling 60 days early I am money ahead . By selling early. Cow in better condition, ground in better condition. More money in my pocket.
So I guess one has to decide do you want more money in your pocket at the end or do you continue to do things that earn less profit because that is the “traditional way .”
Best way to make money is to do opposite what every one else is doing .
Buy low and sell high not the other way around.
Why sell at 205 days and immediately take at least a 10+cent hit in price just to sell when everyone else is selling so you can be “traditional “?
It’s all about supply and demand. Sell when demand is low and price is high.
I have seen many people go broke following the crowd and buying at the top of the market and then selling when things crash .
Seem a few do quite well doing the opposite. Buy and build a good herd when price and demand is low. Then start to sell as the price increase. When price is at or near the top sell almost completely out if not completely out .
Seen a few who have more then double acreage and animals that way.
But I guess the idea isn’t supposed to be to make money. I guess we are supposed to be like lemmings and follow behind blindly even if off the financial cliff . Because that is “traditional “ and the way it should be done.

 

[Travlr]

Lots of ways to make a buck in cattle.
Like the old saying “if you always do what you’ve always done . You will always get what you’ve always got.”
If I can pull the calf 30-60 days earlier . That is feed left in the field . Hay is $350 a ton . If I can save 1 ton of hay feeding by selling 60 days early I am money ahead . By selling early. Cow in better condition, ground in better condition. More money in my pocket.
So I guess one has to decide do you want more money in your pocket at the end or do you continue to do things that earn less profit because that is the “traditional way .”
Best way to make money is to do opposite what every one else is doing .
Buy low and sell high not the other way around.
Why sell at 205 days and immediately take at least a 10+cent hit in price just to sell when everyone else is selling so you can be “traditional “?
It’s all about supply and demand. Sell when demand is low and price is high.
I have seen many people go broke following the crowd and buying at the top of the market and then selling when things crash .
Seem a few do quite well doing the opposite. Buy and build a good herd when price and demand is low. Then start to sell as the price increase. When price is at or near the top sell almost completely out if not completely out .
Seen a few who have more then double acreage and animals that way.
But I guess the idea isn’t supposed to be to make money. I guess we are supposed to be like lemmings and follow behind blindly even if off the financial cliff . Because that is “traditional “ and the way it should be done.

Well I was with you until that last paragraph and admiring your logic.

But the numbers still don't add up. Why would anyone save $350 a ton hay when they can be getting $1.6/80+ a pound live weight by feeding it? Besides which, I personally rotate my pastures so I don't feed hay until well after calves are weaned. No cow I've ever had needed seven months between lactations to be in good condition, and the length of the rest period has a decreasing benefit the further from future/anticipated parturition.

And... timing the market has some real value. I've done it enough to understand how it works and you're very correct that there are optimal times and others not so much. There are also ways to nullify risk.

Please feel free to throw some numbers at me if you feel differently. I'm here to learn.

 

[Rmc]

Using the prices in the first post
525lb steers brought 280 cad =21538 us
325lb steers brought 3805=29269 us
So 325lb calves brought $951.24 us
525 calves brought $1130.75
1130.75-951.24= $179.51 difference between 325 lb calf and 525 lbs.
still following it is pretty easy month actually.
If it takes 205 days to get to 525lbs. If you pull calves 60 (145)days earlier at 325 lbs.
So you have a extra 60 days of feed that the calf did not eat . Plus the extra feed left because nutrient requirement is less for a dry cow then a nursing cow .
Then you have the cow going into winter in better condition due to 1. Only had to nurse calf for 145 days instead of 205 days.cow was also dry for an additional 60 days prior to going into winter wich means going into winter in better condition.
So
60 days less pasture to feed calf +
60 day decrease in nutrition requirements of dry cow vs nursing cow +
Cow going into winter in better body condition =
Less hay or other supplemented feed requirements for cow throughout winter months plus time and fuel to feed.
If less feed supplement to cow is one ton less hay fed per cow.
If hay is $350 per ton.
So
$350 (savings in feed )
Minus
$179.51(difference between selling price of 525lb calf vs 325lb calf
=$170.49
So in this example you would profit $170.49 us if you sold calves at 325 vs 525.
That isn’t considering any death loss sickness ect.between 325 vs 525.

It also only considers saving of only one ton of hay.wich I think is very conservative especially if you have a 90-120 day feeding cow through winter.
May not make sense to those who live in areas that don’t have to feed 90-120 days ,but many times your feed expenses are far more of a determination of profit vs loss, then is the sale price of calf she produced.

 

[gcreekrch]

You guys are getting way to complicated! These calves are forward contracted for late October delivery. This is the latest we have contracted our calves in years, last year they were contracted in February, two months before birth.
Sell when you see a profit, keep when you smell one.

 

[gcreekrch]

This country is tough on young and old cows. Most are on their third calf before we see them over 475 lbs at the scale 220 miles away. These cows are not little but they aren’t elephants either. We make them graze in the snow until too cold or snow gets too deep, we don’t fertilize or pump water. There are other places that likely can feed a cow less during a shorter winter but I will bet the land costs are triple or more ours.

 

[SmokinM]

Good to see you back Gcreek. Hope you have been doing well. One thing I know for sure is with your success in the cattle business I am not questioning your math on when and how to sell calves! Particularly when they are upwards of $3 a lb. Nice calves as always!

 

[Dave]

Neighbor got $2.31 for 550 pound steers for an early November delivery. That is $1,270 per calf. And cows and calves are still in the hills eating feed that wont be available by late November. Pulling the calves early would mean gathering the cows early rather than utilizing the feed. Here light calves at the sale even in groups aren't bringing nearly what semi loads of reputation heavier calves are getting.

 

[anewcomer]

Rmc, always love your thinking!