Cattle population reports

[ddg1263]

You know the more I read up on the cattle market the more I really want to dig into the numbers. Recently, the government just published that the cattle population was down by 1% over last year. I personally think it was much higher than that. I wonder where they get their info and how they conduct their census of the country's herd population.

I know of farmer after farmer who have either sold out or scaled back their herd because of economic pressures. I am certain that the South American herd population is up but I really think our numbers and Canada's are way down. I have looked at the total numbers from the sales in the stockyard report, but some of that is misleading. A lot of those guys may buy a few cows and then rerun them through the sale ring in a few months trying to make a buck. I am curious if you guys know of people who have gotten out of the business? Also, have you guys known of many farms adding substantial numbers to their herd in the past 18 months? The only guy I know of that was buying cows to put on a farm happened in winter of 08 when hay was expensive. He was a hay farmer and could not sell his hay to anyone because it was way too high. He bought a bunch of cows so he would not lose out completely, but he sold the following spring. I guess he bought 100 head to stick out on his place. However, I do know of 5 farms that have sold out completely in the past 24 months. Anyway, it would be an interesting thread…

 

[backhoeboogie]

2003 was the worst drought locally since records have been kept. You read the stories about them burning the needles off of cactus and feeding it to cows in the 50's. Prickly pear looked like dried up pieces of purple cardboard laying in curls on the ground. So we didn't have the options they used in the 50's. The drought was literally so bad cactus died.

Everyone in this area culled to the bone. Many sold out completely. Since then, most of us have been expanding and retaining. There is a lot of imported cold climate cattle and we don't buy those because they don't work in our environment. Not many of us are running terminal bulls at the moment. We're running bulls for retention purposes.

So I am seeing exactly the opposite thing you are seeing.

200 miles south of here has been in a terrible drought that we have not experienced over the last two years. I suspect many of those folks are going to be building back up this year and the next several. Since you can't buy good eared cows easily (or cheaply) there will be a lot of heifer retention going on.

Does this explanation help? It may not even be a drop in the bucket to the whole U.S.

 

[backhoeboogie]

I didn't mention the wild fires out west of here either. You may recall that thousands of cattle were killed by grass and brush fire. Cows are needed to repopulate those ranches. That is one thing I have not had to deal with in the last two decades.

 

[Howdyjabo]

The thing to watch is the market reports and the number of heifers being butchered compared to steers.

 

[TexasBred]

ddg....another Gov't report said number of illegal aliens was down over one million since 2007....I don't know if we can believe anything they say. ;-)

But..one other thing to watch for is amount of acreage pulled out of row crop production and put into grazing and vice versa. Won't give you the whole story but another small indicator.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Recession has had a big impact over this way as well, lot of people that lived down Houston and had places here have sold way down or out. Couple reasons I figured was they were two member income and someone has got laid off. Another reason is a lot of these people buy hay and there is none to be had to buy around here. I get calls everyday for hay, saw one horse guy buying squares at the feed store for 8 bucks a bale and bought sixty. Feed store has a few rounds for 75 bucks a pop.

 

[uscangus]

Recession has had a big impact over this way as well, lot of people that lived down Houston and had places here have sold way down or out. Couple reasons I figured was they were two member income and someone has got laid off. Another reason is a lot of these people buy hay and there is none to be had to buy around here. I get calls everyday for hay, saw one horse guy buying squares at the feed store for 8 bucks a bale and bought sixty. Feed store has a few rounds for 75 bucks a pop.

in our neck of the wood-state of washington, our square bale of hay around 50-75lbs is about 3-5 dollars. your hays in that area is so expensive and it is like loan sharks. our 600 lbs of round bale of hay is about 30-40 dollars.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Recession has had a big impact over this way as well, lot of people that lived down Houston and had places here have sold way down or out. Couple reasons I figured was they were two member income and someone has got laid off. Another reason is a lot of these people buy hay and there is none to be had to buy around here. I get calls everyday for hay, saw one horse guy buying squares at the feed store for 8 bucks a bale and bought sixty. Feed store has a few rounds for 75 bucks a pop.

in our neck of the wood-state of washington, our square bale of hay around 50-75lbs is about 3-5 dollars. your hays in that area is so expensive and it is like loan sharks. our 600 lbs of round bale of hay is about 30-40 dollars.

Most of the custom balers have died off the ones left won't mess with little 10 to 20 acre hay fields.
We have no railroad in the county I live in so if they can't buy excess off a local it has to be trucked in.

 

[ga. prime]

You know the more I read up on the cattle market the more I really want to dig into the numbers. Recently, the government just published that the cattle population was down by 1% over last year. I personally think it was much higher than that. I wonder where they get their info and how they conduct their census of the country's herd population.
I know of farmer after farmer who have either sold out or scaled back their herd because of economic pressures. I am certain that the South American herd population is up but I really think our numbers and Canada's are way down. I have looked at the total numbers from the sales in the stockyard report, but some of that is misleading. A lot of those guys may buy a few cows and then rerun them through the sale ring in a few months trying to make a buck. I am curious if you guys know of people who have gotten out of the business? Also, have you guys known of many farms adding substantial numbers to their herd in the past 18 months? The only guy I know of that was buying cows to put on a farm happened in winter of 08 when hay was expensive. He was a hay farmer and could not sell his hay to anyone because it was way too high. He bought a bunch of cows so he would not lose out completely, but he sold the following spring. I guess he bought 100 head to stick out on his place. However, I do know of 5 farms that have sold out completely in the past 24 months. Anyway, it would be an interesting thread…

One place they get it is from the questionaire that the USDA sends out to answer these and other questions about agricultural input and output regarding all sectors of agriculture and forestry. Lotsa folks throw these questionaires in the trash. I don't. I'm not superstitious. If you research this website on the subject of USDA questionaires, it'll answer your question. Superstition rules.

 

[1982vett]

You know the more I read up on the cattle market the more I really want to dig into the numbers. Recently, the government just published that the cattle population was down by 1% over last year. I personally think it was much higher than that. I wonder where they get their info and how they conduct their census of the country's herd population.
I know of farmer after farmer who have either sold out or scaled back their herd because of economic pressures. I am certain that the South American herd population is up but I really think our numbers and Canada's are way down. I have looked at the total numbers from the sales in the stockyard report, but some of that is misleading. A lot of those guys may buy a few cows and then rerun them through the sale ring in a few months trying to make a buck. I am curious if you guys know of people who have gotten out of the business? Also, have you guys known of many farms adding substantial numbers to their herd in the past 18 months? The only guy I know of that was buying cows to put on a farm happened in winter of 08 when hay was expensive. He was a hay farmer and could not sell his hay to anyone because it was way too high. He bought a bunch of cows so he would not lose out completely, but he sold the following spring. I guess he bought 100 head to stick out on his place. However, I do know of 5 farms that have sold out completely in the past 24 months. Anyway, it would be an interesting thread…

One place they get it is from the questionaire that the USDA sends out to answer these and other questions about agricultural input and output regarding all sectors of agriculture and forestry. Lotsa folks throw these questionaires in the trash. I don't. I'm not superstitious. If you research this website on the subject of USDA questionaires, it'll answer your question. Superstition rules.

On top of that, I'll bet you answer them honestly....

 

[Stocker Steve]

I am expanding but I usually buck the trend. Cow/calf herds are down in my area and it looks like folks with wet feed are starting to fight over feeders.
Numbers at bred cow sales were up in my area. Hard to afford hay with the $400 calf prices during last fall. I only know one who is quitting but a lot of folks are cutting back.
I paid an average of $560/head for mostly young thin bred cows in November. After culling the old and the ugly and the high headed - - and processing the remainder - - I had another $100 each into them. Still not a lot over cull cow price.
I don't really care about the population report but I do care about the cash flow. I buy rwf cows and I sell balck calves. :cboy:

 

[ga. prime]

You know the more I read up on the cattle market the more I really want to dig into the numbers. Recently, the government just published that the cattle population was down by 1% over last year. I personally think it was much higher than that. I wonder where they get their info and how they conduct their census of the country's herd population.
I know of farmer after farmer who have either sold out or scaled back their herd because of economic pressures. I am certain that the South American herd population is up but I really think our numbers and Canada's are way down. I have looked at the total numbers from the sales in the stockyard report, but some of that is misleading. A lot of those guys may buy a few cows and then rerun them through the sale ring in a few months trying to make a buck. I am curious if you guys know of people who have gotten out of the business? Also, have you guys known of many farms adding substantial numbers to their herd in the past 18 months? The only guy I know of that was buying cows to put on a farm happened in winter of 08 when hay was expensive. He was a hay farmer and could not sell his hay to anyone because it was way too high. He bought a bunch of cows so he would not lose out completely, but he sold the following spring. I guess he bought 100 head to stick out on his place. However, I do know of 5 farms that have sold out completely in the past 24 months. Anyway, it would be an interesting thread…

One place they get it is from the questionaire that the USDA sends out to answer these and other questions about agricultural input and output regarding all sectors of agriculture and forestry. Lotsa folks throw these questionaires in the trash. I don't. I'm not superstitious. If you research this website on the subject of USDA questionaires, it'll answer your question. Superstition rules.

On top of that, I'll bet you answer them honestly....

Honest as I can. Cow numbers are easy to get right. Some of those questions, it's true you gotta guess on. I don't throw the questionaires in the trash or burn them on the courthouse square.

 

[Aaron]

You know the more I read up on the cattle market the more I really want to dig into the numbers. Recently, the government just published that the cattle population was down by 1% over last year. I personally think it was much higher than that. I wonder where they get their info and how they conduct their census of the country's herd population.

I know of farmer after farmer who have either sold out or scaled back their herd because of economic pressures. I am certain that the South American herd population is up but I really think our numbers and Canada's are way down. I have looked at the total numbers from the sales in the stockyard report, but some of that is misleading. A lot of those guys may buy a few cows and then rerun them through the sale ring in a few months trying to make a buck. I am curious if you guys know of people who have gotten out of the business? Also, have you guys known of many farms adding substantial numbers to their herd in the past 18 months? The only guy I know of that was buying cows to put on a farm happened in winter of 08 when hay was expensive. He was a hay farmer and could not sell his hay to anyone because it was way too high. He bought a bunch of cows so he would not lose out completely, but he sold the following spring. I guess he bought 100 head to stick out on his place. However, I do know of 5 farms that have sold out completely in the past 24 months. Anyway, it would be an interesting thread…

Canada's cattle inventory report as of January 1, 2010 comes out on February 16. :cowboy:

 

[ddg1263]

I think everyone here has said the same thing. People have culled their herd hard over the last several years because of the economic times. I know people are trying to catch a niche in the market, but in general the main force of our cattle population has dropped. I think it is much more than 1%. They may make that up the difference by bringing cows across the border from Mexico, but the guys in the trenches have hunkered down.

The guys who make the beef market have claimed that there is a lack of demand for our product, and this is the reason it has not spiked very much. However, I think our consumption is higher than ever. We may have seen a drop in prime steak consumption, but the rest of the cow is being consumed at higher levels than ever. Hamburger, roasts, briskets are in demand. I just do not trust the middle men who are publishing these reports and keeping the farmer deep in the red for their personal profits. I am sure the government wants to skew the data to keep food prices down as much as they can. People lacking a job and being hungry makes for terrible elections. Anyway, it just seems to me that there are going to be fewer claves being sold this year due to us rebuilding our herds and an oversold market.

 

[AudieWyoming]

I got this E-mail about a week ago, this thread reminded me of it. I usually don't get too excited about Internet boogyman stories but most of this is nothing new. Its been going on for a long time now. @

MUST Read about McDonalds
THIS IS A GOOD DECENT MAN WHO TOOK THE TIME TO WRITE THIS AND: HE SIGNED THE STATEMENT AND: INCLUDED HIS CONTACT INFO:

READ ON

I'm sure those of you who aren't in the cattle business don't understand the issues here. But to those of us whose living depends on the cattle market, selling cattle, raising the best beef possible... This is frustrating.
This will keep us from ever stopping there again, even for a drink. The original message is from the Texas Cattle Feeders Association American cattle producers are very passionate about this.

McDonald's claims that there is not enough beef in the USA to support their restaurants. Well, we know that is not so. Our opinion is they are looking to save money at our expense. The sad thing of it is that the people of the USA are the ones who made McDonald's successful in the first place, but we are not good enough to provide beef.

We personally are no longer eating at McDonald's, which I am sure does not make an impact, but if we pass this around maybe there will be an impact felt.

All Americans that sell cows at a livestock auction barn had to sign a paper stating that we do NOT EVER feed our cows any part of another cow. South Americans are not required to do this as of yet.

McDonald's has announced that they are going to start importing much of their beef from South America . The problem is that South Americans aren't under the same regulations as American beef producers, and the regulations they have are loosely controlled.

They can spray numerous pesticides on their pastures that have been banned here at home because of residues found in the beef. They can also use various hormones and growth regulators that we can't. The American public
needs to be aware of this problem and that they may be putting themselves at risk from now on by eating at good old McDonald's..

American ranchers raise the highest quality beef in the world and this is what Americans deserve to eat. Not beef from countries where quality is loosely controlled. Therefore, I am proposing a boycott of McDonald's until they see the light.

I'm sorry but everything is not always about the bottom line, and when it comes to jeopardizing my family's health, that is where I draw the line.


I am sending this note to about thirty people. If each of you send it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at l east ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000) ... and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth generation of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers!

I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you? Acting together we can make a difference. If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on..

David W. Forrest, Ph.D ., PAS, Dipl.
ACAP Department of Animal Science
Texas A&M University
Phone (979) 845-3560 (979) 845-3560
Fax (979) 862-3399
2471 TAMU College Station , TX 77843-2471

 

[SRBeef]

I got this E-mail about a week ago, this thread reminded me of it. I usually don't get too excited about Internet boogyman stories but most of this is nothing new. Its been going on for a long time now. @

MUST Read about McDonalds
THIS IS A GOOD DECENT MAN WHO TOOK THE TIME TO WRITE THIS AND: HE SIGNED THE STATEMENT AND: INCLUDED HIS CONTACT INFO:

READ ON

I'm sure those of you who aren't in the cattle business don't understand the issues here. But to those of us whose living depends on the cattle market, selling cattle, raising the best beef possible... This is frustrating.
This will keep us from ever stopping there again, even for a drink. The original message is from the Texas Cattle Feeders Association American cattle producers are very passionate about this.

McDonald's claims that there is not enough beef in the USA to support their restaurants. Well, we know that is not so. Our opinion is they are looking to save money at our expense. The sad thing of it is that the people of the USA are the ones who made McDonald's successful in the first place, but we are not good enough to provide beef.

We personally are no longer eating at McDonald's, which I am sure does not make an impact, but if we pass this around maybe there will be an impact felt.

All Americans that sell cows at a livestock auction barn had to sign a paper stating that we do NOT EVER feed our cows any part of another cow. South Americans are not required to do this as of yet.

McDonald's has announced that they are going to start importing much of their beef from South America . The problem is that South Americans aren't under the same regulations as American beef producers, and the regulations they have are loosely controlled.

They can spray numerous pesticides on their pastures that have been banned here at home because of residues found in the beef. They can also use various hormones and growth regulators that we can't. The American public
needs to be aware of this problem and that they may be putting themselves at risk from now on by eating at good old McDonald's..

American ranchers raise the highest quality beef in the world and this is what Americans deserve to eat. Not beef from countries where quality is loosely controlled. Therefore, I am proposing a boycott of McDonald's until they see the light.

I'm sorry but everything is not always about the bottom line, and when it comes to jeopardizing my family's health, that is where I draw the line.


I am sending this note to about thirty people. If each of you send it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at l east ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000) ... and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth generation of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers!

I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you? Acting together we can make a difference. If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on..

David W. Forrest, Ph.D ., PAS, Dipl.
ACAP Department of Animal Science
Texas A&M University
Phone (979) 845-3560 (979) 845-3560
Fax (979) 862-3399
2471 TAMU College Station , TX 77843-2471

While it is an admirable thought on the part of the originator, if this is legitimate, there is much more to the issue. Here is an interesting press release from JBS, the Brazilian Company that purchased Swift & Co, Packerland, 5 Rivers Feeders, etc etc etc..

http://www.jbsswift.com/media/releases/Material_Fact_SmithfieldClosing_20081023.pdf

According to their own press release, JBS is the world's largest beef producer and exporter at 65 thousand head PER DAY, owns 22 plants in Brazil, 6 in Argentina, 16 in the USA, 10 in Australia and 10 in that beef capital, Italy. They claimed to be the worlds largest "exporter of processed beef".

I would imagine that McDonalds is one of the worlds largest customers for processed beef and a likely customer for JBS.

Does anyone really think any of these folks care where the beef they are shipping around the globe comes from???? McD's as a publicly owned company is interested in one thing: profits for the stockholders. They are going to buy the cheapest beef they can get us to consume - and that is most likely NOT going to be from the US.

 

[MO_cows]

I got this E-mail about a week ago, this thread reminded me of it. I usually don't get too excited about Internet boogyman stories but most of this is nothing new. Its been going on for a long time now. @

MUST Read about McDonalds
THIS IS A GOOD DECENT MAN WHO TOOK THE TIME TO WRITE THIS AND: HE SIGNED THE STATEMENT AND: INCLUDED HIS CONTACT INFO:

READ ON

I'm sure those of you who aren't in the cattle business don't understand the issues here. But to those of us whose living depends on the cattle market, selling cattle, raising the best beef possible... This is frustrating.
This will keep us from ever stopping there again, even for a drink. The original message is from the Texas Cattle Feeders Association American cattle producers are very passionate about this.

McDonald's claims that there is not enough beef in the USA to support their restaurants. Well, we know that is not so. Our opinion is they are looking to save money at our expense. The sad thing of it is that the people of the USA are the ones who made McDonald's successful in the first place, but we are not good enough to provide beef.

We personally are no longer eating at McDonald's, which I am sure does not make an impact, but if we pass this around maybe there will be an impact felt.

All Americans that sell cows at a livestock auction barn had to sign a paper stating that we do NOT EVER feed our cows any part of another cow. South Americans are not required to do this as of yet.

McDonald's has announced that they are going to start importing much of their beef from South America . The problem is that South Americans aren't under the same regulations as American beef producers, and the regulations they have are loosely controlled.

They can spray numerous pesticides on their pastures that have been banned here at home because of residues found in the beef. They can also use various hormones and growth regulators that we can't. The American public
needs to be aware of this problem and that they may be putting themselves at risk from now on by eating at good old McDonald's..

American ranchers raise the highest quality beef in the world and this is what Americans deserve to eat. Not beef from countries where quality is loosely controlled. Therefore, I am proposing a boycott of McDonald's until they see the light.

I'm sorry but everything is not always about the bottom line, and when it comes to jeopardizing my family's health, that is where I draw the line.


I am sending this note to about thirty people. If each of you send it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at l east ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000) ... and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth generation of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers!

I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you? Acting together we can make a difference. If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on..

David W. Forrest, Ph.D ., PAS, Dipl.
ACAP Department of Animal Science
Texas A&M University
Phone (979) 845-3560 (979) 845-3560
Fax (979) 862-3399
2471 TAMU College Station , TX 77843-2471

I have received this email several times over the last few years and believe it to be a hoax. Never took the time to call Dr. Forrest, but as I recall someone else did and then sent around a retraction of their original forward.

 

[AudieWyoming]

This world market dynamic is the impetus behind the U.S. premium branded beef programs. The U.S. is still the world leader in producing quality grain fed beef, We virtually have that market to ourselves, but Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and to a lesser extent Canada, Mexico, and the other countries mentioned in SRBEEF's post have been carving into the traditional commodity beef market world wide with lower cost beef.

Therein lies the long range problem with grass fed, least cost, marginal genetics programs in the U.S. Do you really want to try and compete with all these other countries for the least cost, low margin, end of the market or do you want to try to expand your share of the high end, larger margined, grain fed premium beef trade. @

While it is an admirable thought on the part of the originator, if this is legitimate, there is much more to the issue. Here is an interesting press release from JBS, the Brazilian Company that purchased Swift & Co, Packerland, 5 Rivers Feeders, etc etc etc..

http://www.jbsswift.com/media/releases/Material_Fact_SmithfieldClosing_20081023.pdf

According to their own press release, JBS is the world's largest beef producer and exporter at 65 thousand head PER DAY, owns 22 plants in Brazil, 6 in Argentina, 16 in the USA, 10 in Australia and 10 in that beef capital, Italy. They claimed to be the worlds largest "exporter of processed beef".

I would imagine that McDonalds is one of the worlds largest customers for processed beef and a likely customer for JBS.

Does anyone really think any of these folks care where the beef they are shipping around the globe comes from???? McD's as a publicly owned company is interested in one thing: profits for the stockholders. They are going to buy the cheapest beef they can get us to consume - and that is most likely NOT going to be from the US.

 

[MO_cows]

"Therein lies the long range problem with grass fed, least cost, marginal genetics programs in the U.S. Do you really want to try and compete with all these other countries for the least cost, low margin, end of the market or do you want to try to expand your share of the high end, larger margined, grain fed premium beef trade. @"

Now that there is a good point! However the grass finished beef I have seen marketed is at a premium price over conventional beef. That could change when supply catches up with demand, then your point definitely hits home.

 

[dun]

I got this E-mail about a week ago, this thread reminded me of it. I usually don't get too excited about Internet boogyman stories but most of this is nothing new. Its been going on for a long time now. @

MUST Read about McDonalds
THIS IS A GOOD DECENT MAN WHO TOOK THE TIME TO WRITE THIS AND: HE SIGNED THE STATEMENT AND: INCLUDED HIS CONTACT INFO:

READ ON

I'm sure those of you who aren't in the cattle business don't understand the issues here. But to those of us whose living depends on the cattle market, selling cattle, raising the best beef possible... This is frustrating.
This will keep us from ever stopping there again, even for a drink. The original message is from the Texas Cattle Feeders Association American cattle producers are very passionate about this.

McDonald's claims that there is not enough beef in the USA to support their restaurants. Well, we know that is not so. Our opinion is they are looking to save money at our expense. The sad thing of it is that the people of the USA are the ones who made McDonald's successful in the first place, but we are not good enough to provide beef.

We personally are no longer eating at McDonald's, which I am sure does not make an impact, but if we pass this around maybe there will be an impact felt.

All Americans that sell cows at a livestock auction barn had to sign a paper stating that we do NOT EVER feed our cows any part of another cow. South Americans are not required to do this as of yet.

McDonald's has announced that they are going to start importing much of their beef from South America . The problem is that South Americans aren't under the same regulations as American beef producers, and the regulations they have are loosely controlled.

They can spray numerous pesticides on their pastures that have been banned here at home because of residues found in the beef. They can also use various hormones and growth regulators that we can't. The American public
needs to be aware of this problem and that they may be putting themselves at risk from now on by eating at good old McDonald's..

American ranchers raise the highest quality beef in the world and this is what Americans deserve to eat. Not beef from countries where quality is loosely controlled. Therefore, I am proposing a boycott of McDonald's until they see the light.

I'm sorry but everything is not always about the bottom line, and when it comes to jeopardizing my family's health, that is where I draw the line.


I am sending this note to about thirty people. If each of you send it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at l east ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000) ... and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth generation of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers!

I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you? Acting together we can make a difference. If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on..

David W. Forrest, Ph.D ., PAS, Dipl.
ACAP Department of Animal Science
Texas A&M University
Phone (979) 845-3560 (979) 845-3560
Fax (979) 862-3399
2471 TAMU College Station , TX 77843-2471

Interesting that his old deal is still circulating. Proves there is life after death
http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/mcdbeef.asp