Cattle Futures

[backhoeboogie]

I am liking what the short term forecasters are saying about cattle for the next couple of years.

Lets all hope they are better at forecasting than the weathermen are :D

 

[Jeanne - Simme Valley]

Amen to that!

 

[Caustic Burno]

I am liking what the short term forecasters are saying about cattle for the next couple of years.

Lets all hope they are better at forecasting than the weathermen are :D

Does look good but I have seen the bottom fall out before. Just because futures are good doesn't mean our prices will be. Get a hay shortage in an area and the buyers will skin us alive.

 

[cypressfarms]

Inventories of beef cattle - as in herd population, is still as low as it's been since the early 60's. That has to be a good sign. Even if the supply is lower, low inventory normally means higher demand = higher price.

So I guess the "whether to keep your heifers or buy bred heifers" argument will keep going...

 

[Red Bull Breeder]

Cattle still ain't selling that high compared to the cost of your imputs. When people can just barely afford to put fuel in the rigs just to go to work they ain't going to buy much steak.

 

[kenny thomas]

Are you watching the futures this week. Aug. 2011 feeders are down about $2.00 this week so far.

 

[kenny thomas]

From agcenter.com

The second trading day of the new year brought a broad selloff to the commodities that had been on a rampage. Gold, oil, grains and cattle futures moved lower and in some cases, sharply lower. The two day sell off in live cattle futures triggered nervous trade among cattle owners across the plains. Texas sold cattle at $106-106.50 or .50 to $1 lower than last week. Kansas and Nebraska sold cattle at $105-105.50 also one lower. In the beef sales were at $169 in the beef or steady with last week.

 

[backhoeboogie]

From agcenter.com

The second trading day of the new year brought a broad selloff to the commodities that had been on a rampage. Gold, oil, grains and cattle futures moved lower and in some cases, sharply lower. The two day sell off in live cattle futures triggered nervous trade among cattle owners across the plains. Texas sold cattle at $106-106.50 or .50 to $1 lower than last week. Kansas and Nebraska sold cattle at $105-105.50 also one lower. In the beef sales were at $169 in the beef or steady with last week.

I am still liking what I read. Don't plan on selling next fall when prices typically drop. The majority of my steers will go out this spring.

http://www.agcenter.com/newcattlereport.aspx

In a finite world with only so many cattle, it is logical to expect as world population expands, beef prices will rise. The U.S. herd is in decline and no one expect the cycle to turn this year. The first six months of 2011 will likely feature larger beef supplies than last year and only in the second half is beef production expected to fall from 2010 levels.

 

[uscangus]

Cattle still ain't selling that high compared to the cost of your imputs. When people can just barely afford to put fuel in the rigs just to go to work they ain't going to buy much steak.

excellent response-"Red Bull Breeder"- if gas goes up 4-5 dollar per gallon, ethanol got another subsidy from big govt., and cost making hay or feeds, plus, it will make people stay home and defer buying much steak or prime cut or eat out. it may be the hiccups for the economy. without consumer buying, eating out, or spending, there goes 2/3 of the gross domestic product for the economy. in los angeles,ca. and when gas hit 4.50 per gallon, it curtail the consumer, last year.

 

[kenny thomas]

Today from agcenter.com.

The cattle inventory on the first of the year will be published soon and the news is not good. Cow slaughter as a percent of the cow herd was up to 12% from a more traditional 8-9% number. Fewer beef producers are breeding smaller numbers of cows and the nation's beef cattle herd is continuing to shrink.

The repercussions will be felt throughout the beef industry and overcapacity in grazing, finishing and processing will suffer. The critical question is what does it take to create a desire to rebuild on the part of the breeder? The breeder belt from South Texas across the south to Florida is the heartland of cow/calf operations with Missouri included. These areas have options of choosing either beef cattle or traditional farm crops. With farm crop prices breaking out to the high side, many are choosing crops like cotton.

The incentives to add replacement breeder cattle is there. Each week stocker and feeder cattle set new record highs. Stories of light calves bringing well over $2 a pound flourish with record feeder cattle prices causing many 800# cattle to sell into the $120s.

This leaves the beef production chain from the breeder on in trouble. One would think $105-106 for finished cattle would be very profitable for cattle owners. Unfortunately the price is sometimes a breakeven but more often a loss. Sky high corn combined with sky high replacement cattle have changed the equation for profit and threatened the consumers ability to afford beef.

If conditions look bad now, they are about to get a lot worse. Any third grader can take a 750# feeder steer, selling for $123 delivered in the southern plains, finish the steer on $6 corn and find the breakeven with all cost is in the area of $117. This means the market must rise $12 cwt. or almost $150/head to return the cattle feeders money. Careful not to hedge. This option will guarantee you a loss of $75/head.

 

[kenny thomas]

What a difference a week makes. August 2011 at 127.90. Up 4.00+ since last Wednesday.

 

[shaz]

What limits beef supply the most? Price of land does it here. Beef is a low yield per acre.

 

[kenny thomas]

No younger people getting into it here. Lots of land that is growing up. Land price is still too high also but a lot being bought for hunting.

 

[backhoeboogie]

I pulled the trigger again and sold a trailer load of steers with one heifer this week. Wow!

Yes TB, I went with Mike Domel again and don't have any regrets whatsoever. Check these prices

http://www.mlslivestock.com/new_page_6.html

 

[TexasBred]

I pulled the trigger again and sold a trailer load of steers with one heifer this week. Wow!

Yes TB, I went with Mike Domel again and don't have any regrets whatsoever. Check these prices

http://www.mlslivestock.com/new_page_6.html

Looks like the market was very active...but it's that way everywhere. Ever haul to Clifton Sale? I've never been there but have had several fellows tell me that calves sell great there but cows sell better at MLS.

 

[backhoeboogie]

I pulled the trigger again and sold a trailer load of steers with one heifer this week. Wow!

Yes TB, I went with Mike Domel again and don't have any regrets whatsoever. Check these prices

http://www.mlslivestock.com/new_page_6.html

Looks like the market was very active...but it's that way everywhere. Ever haul to Clifton Sale? I've never been there but have had several fellows tell me that calves sell great there but cows sell better at MLS.

I've been to Clifton once and don't have any significant memories. Been to MLS many times. Once had to haul a load home and go back and get another load because the trailer was too small. I've also bought and sold in Cleburne. Do most of my buying in the last few years at Dublin.

I like selling in Meridian because of the farm location and haul route. It aint bad. That's where Dad did most of his activities back when he was alive.

I have had to help out a vet friend from time to time at some sales at other places, but when I am there I am no where near the ring to see what goes on. I do see what comes through tho. Its not all that often that I do this.