Cattle bubble like housing bubble?

[bigbull338]

ill see sometime tomorrow or monday if the cow prices have dropped some on reg beefmasters.im trying to get a price some cows thats for sale.an he says they will fitt my herd just right.i hope he has a nice set of cows for me.

 

[ANAZAZI]

Hey bigbull, are you always buying cattle? Or only replacing the old commercial cows with reg beefmasters?

 

[bigbull338]

right now im trying to replace some cattle.thus adding to the reg herd.if i buy anymore now itll be the last i buy for 1 or 2 years.cant expand the reg herd when they all have bull calves.ive bought from this guy before so he knows what i like.an i know pretty much where they buy cattle from.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Now the hard question. With calf prices up, can you afford not to sell all of your calves? Everyone will be buying replacements to increase their herd, so their value will go up.

My economist says sell all the calves, but what does he know? Since we have a hay surplus in my area I am retaining more heifers than usuall.

Also, I say sell some big old cows that only have a calf or so left in them and buy back bred heifers. The prices will be close and the bred heifer will not eat as much this winter.

 

[1982vett]

Now the hard question. With calf prices up, can you afford not to sell all of your calves? Everyone will be buying replacements to increase their herd, so their value will go up.

My economist says sell all the calves, but what does he know? Since we have a hay surplus in my area I am retaining more heifers than usuall.

Also, I say sell some big old cows that only have a calf or so left in them and buy back bred heifers. The prices will be close and the bred heifer will not eat as much this winter.

:lol: Ya got to keep/buy them when nobody wants them and sell them when everbody wants them. The trick is not to sell them to soon or hold them to long.

Now ain't that easy. :???: :lol:

 

[dun]

I say sell some big old cows that only have a calf or so left in them

My clairvoyance isn;t good enough to know when that is

 

[uscangus]

when you can buy hay dirt cheap an feed is fairly cheap.that will push the cow an calf prices up.an they will stay high as long as the feed an hay is cheap.plus cheap feed gets the feedlots to buy alot of calves an fill their pens.

i never thought about that. but, if feeds are dirt cheap, then eventually their will be oversupply of cattle or cow/calf in the
market. eventually, they will sell the cow or cow/calf in the market, creating oversupply of meat.

like stock market, when the average person knows about the individual stocks, it is time to sell because too many buyers to support the price. thanks bigbull338. go usc,,uscangus.............

 

[uscangus]

Hay price varies by region and I don't think it has much effect on the market. Corn on the other hand is what the vast majority of cattle are finished on and is pretty much priced in the same ballpark all over with regards to distance from major shipping terminals. Corn prices will control the market as far as feeder cattle are concerned.

For finished cattle it is pretty much supply and demand. Keep in mind that we export a lot of beef so it's not just our economy. Also with a struggling economy; people are still going out and eating beef but instead of going to a steakhouse they are choosing to have burgers instead. Also I think there are more home cooked meals with a tough economy and ground beef is used in many ways as a protein source.

Others are way more in tune with the markets but that is how I see things.

thanks ChrisB for your generous response. i understand that corn play a part on cow prices on finishing cattle in feedlot. but the averageperson like me just feed pasture grass or hay. then, we sell it to the local auction.

i understand that we are starting to export in korea but Canada, Australia, and South America are ahead of us in Asia and South
America. Don't forget we have Canadian and Mexico meat. I hope we could get our consumer to go out and buy and eat.
but, you are correct in regard that many people are staying home and bunkering for this lethargic economy. i have five kids. we don't go out as much due to uncertainty. three of my kids in college, i feel like i am over stretcheeeeed. go usc, uscangu. any way thanks ChrisB for your advices.

 

[uscangus]

Cattle numbers are the lowest they have been since 1952. Toss in a high cull cow market because there is a demand for hamburger. Things are set up to keep cow numbers down for a while. 500-600 wgt calves for $0.95-$1.10 is not a high price. In fact it is lower than the market in lots of parts of the country. The break even number probably isn't too terribly far below that price if all the costs are really calculated.

Dave-thanks. what do you mean break even number from the price. with this prices for me, it is too high. i will probably wait this early december or when there are too much snow. thanks Dave. uscangus.............

 

[bigbull338]

id forgotten to mention something else.you asked what if the US cow herd gets to big again.well that could happen but not probable.because i doubt if corn will ever bottom out at $2 a bu ever again.itll most likely stay at the $3 to $4 a bu mark.plus you have droughts putting pressure on cattlemen somewhere just about every year.plus as the cattlemen age they sell out an quit sooner or later.

 

[Dave]

The break even price is the total cost to raise a calf. If it cost 80 cents to raise a 500 pound calf and the price is 80 cents. Well, you break even. You don't make anything or lose anything. Calves selling for 95 cents are probably pretty close to the break even price for the person who raised the calf.

I was at a big feeder sale last week. Load lots. The majority of the calves were in the $1.10-$1.20 range. Some higher, and out of 2,000 head there probably weren't 50 head that brought under $1.00. But there was more money to be made on those $1.20 calves than there was on those 90 cent calves.

 

[uscangus]

cattle prices are acting like housing bubble. one time, they said we had a shortage of residential properties and
upgraded smaller properties or flip properties to a larger sizes or sugar coated.

i know we have a short of cattle this year from the last two-three years due to recessions and costs of feeds
eventually, everyone will start increasing their replacement quantity and increased the competition of feeds with ethanol. also, with the news that gas will increased, the prices will eventually drop from beef when the consumer will feel the cost of fuel, stay home, and diminished of dining out. it is about supply and demands in regard to producers, consumers, costs of feeds, and consumption and usuages of petro.

beef prices can't go up straight and linear fashion. there is up and downs. being a newbie, i appreciate your kind inputs. i believe taking some profits from the tops., uscangus, go seahawks and lakers

 

[Stocker Steve]

I say sell some big old cows that only have a calf or so left in them

My clairvoyance isn;t good enough to know when that is

I hauled in some big bred cows that did not milk the best, and they all went to kill for about $1000 gross. Apparently I can pick the ones with zero calves left in them. :cowboy:

 

[bigbull338]

i talked to a friend of mines formen.an he said they sent a cow that didnt milk good to the sale an got $1200 for her.

 

[uscangus]

i talked to a friend of mines formen.an he said they sent a cow that didnt milk good to the sale an got $1200 for her.

The break even price is the total cost to raise a calf. If it cost 80 cents to raise a 500 pound calf and the price is 80 cents. Well, you break even. You don't make anything or lose anything. Calves selling for 95 cents are probably pretty close to the break even price for the person who raised the calf.

I was at a big feeder sale last week. Load lots. The majority of the calves were in the $1.10-$1.20 range. Some higher, and out of 2,000 head there probably weren't 50 head that brought under $1.00. But there was more money to be made on those $1.20 calves than there was on those 90 cent calves.

:welcome: :welcome:

i hopes everyone is making a killing with these current prices and deserve the reward from their hard works calving, banding, and feeding and caring the cow/calf production., uscangus

 

[1982vett]

i talked to a friend of mines formen.an he said they sent a cow that didnt milk good to the sale an got $1200 for her.

The break even price is the total cost to raise a calf. If it cost 80 cents to raise a 500 pound calf and the price is 80 cents. Well, you break even. You don't make anything or lose anything. Calves selling for 95 cents are probably pretty close to the break even price for the person who raised the calf.

I was at a big feeder sale last week. Load lots. The majority of the calves were in the $1.10-$1.20 range. Some higher, and out of 2,000 head there probably weren't 50 head that brought under $1.00. But there was more money to be made on those $1.20 calves than there was on those 90 cent calves.

:welcome: :welcome:

i hopes everyone is making a killing with these current prices and deserve the reward from their hard works calving, banding, and feeding and caring the cow/calf production., uscangus

Making a killing? Or catching up to getting even?

 

[bigbull338]

all you ever do is catch up a little.an then the hard times will hit you again.

 

[uscangus]

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Yes.......................that is what i want to hear to my fellow cow/calf producer.
take advantage of it. all of you deserve so the hard work, especially calving seasons.