Bred cows price outlook?

[mncowboy]

Just looking for opinions on where the bred cows prices are at and the direction they are headed for the northern midwest area, or elsewhere.
Thanks in advance :cowboy:

 

[hillbillycwo]

Just my opinion not worth what you pay for it I am sure but...I think they will go up. The drought in Texas and other areas has decreased the national herd. Feed and fuel costs could slow the increase but folks have to eat. I think feeder calves will go through the roof in the spring. Whatever happens it will be interesting to see.

 

[bigbull338]

theres no doubt in my mind that the bred cows will go sky high when this drought breaks.some say they will go up to $2000 a hd but i dont know.

 

[thommoos]

I do not know about $2000 hd for a base cow, but i believe it will be high, A good idea is to but down here @ 1075 for a 3n1 the sell there for $1500.00.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I paid $1100 for some bred cows this past March.
Bred 1300# colored cows sold for $800 each this month in Fergus. I don't think many folks were there. :cowboy:
No one knows the future. I think a better question is what are they worth today???

 

[hillbillycwo]

I agree right now price is the main consideration but like anything you gotta look to the future and lay plans based on the best information and analysis you can get. I kept several heifers with the intent of possibly selling them as 4-6 month breds if my pasture fails next year. I feel confident that the decision will pay off. I have a few older cows that can go to slaughter if they are bringing better at that time and a few 4-6 year olds if they are selling better and I can calve out the heifers to replace them. Just my plan nothing more and worth less I am sure. Experienced thoughts and tweeks are always welcomed as I am still learning.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Lot's of empty pastures down here, cows are going to be higher than a cat's back.

 

[cross_7]

After The Drought, Will Cattlemen Restock?

Sep 30, 2011 8:00 AM, By Burt Rutherford, BEEF Senior Editor

How extensively and how aggressively cattlemen in the drought areas of the country will restock after it starts raining is the (insert your own dollar figure here) question. For the sake of discussion, let's use $200,000 – that's 100 bred replacement heifers at $2,000 a pop.

For those considering a replacement heifer enterprise as part of their management mix, those are numbers worth contemplating.

According to Jim Robb, director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver, it's clear that some outfits, particularly in South Texas, won't come back with cattle after it rains. Other land uses, particularly hunting, have already overtaken livestock production as the principal and more profitable use of the land in that region. Robb expects that trend to speed up as a result of the drought, which he calls a game-changer. "This drought is unprecedented," he says. "This drought sets into motion a whole new set of circumstances."

Among those new circumstances is the thought that when producers do restock after it rains, they may initially come back with stockers instead of cows, to give them more agility in their pasture-management options. "We're going to chase stocker animals and that's going to change the stocker price dynamic."

And, some ranches will come back with females. "It's a heck of an opportunity to build genetic quality, and it's a heck of an opportunity to have fall- and spring-calving herds as part of your operation."

It's a tremendous opportunity for cattlemen positioned with the right genetics and management to develop a replacement-heifer enterprise to supply those who are looking to restock. (See "Ten Reasons To Consider A Bred Heifer Enterprise".)

And the market will react to the upsurge in demand for females. "I think we could have unbred 550-lb. heifer calf prices, as soon as it starts raining, at the same price as 550-lb. steers," Robb says, "and maybe a slight premium."

He's not saying it's a copper-riveted cinch, but he thinks there's a 50:50 chance we could see no rollback on a heifer calf vs. a steer when it starts to rain.

And then, he says, remember what else is happening with land use in much of the drought regions of Texas and Oklahoma. Oil and natural gas. "People are sitting on these leases," he says. "So the capital requirements in that part of the country to come back overnight and pay $500 more/cow than they sold them for, they won't have to go to the banker."

Robb says that idea hasn't been talked about very much, "but I think it's part of the dynamic. It's part of the reason I think that Oklahoma and that part of the picture will repopulate their cows much quicker than people anticipate and push the stocker market much more than people anticipate."

Interestingly, BEEF magazine conducted an online poll recently at beefmagazine.com that asked: "If you had to liquidate cattle this year because of flooding or drought, what do you plan to do with the proceeds? Of more than 100 responses, 47% said they planned to restock with cows when conditions improve, while 9% said they planned to restock, but change production models (e.g., buy stockers rather than cows). Another 26% said they planned to keep the cash and leave the business, while 5% planned to reinvest the cash in another non-livestock ag enterprise. The final 11% didn't know.

And, in another online poll conducted on beefmagazine.com, we asked: "If the drought were to end in six months, how long will it take Texas' cattle industry to fully recover from the drought?" Of more than 100 responses, 47% said "five years or more, while 39% said less than five years, and 13% believe that most of the cattle lost due to drought won't come back.

 

[Isomade]

Interresting read C7, thanks for posting.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Eared cattle are going to be sky high around here come spring. I know some Texans disagree with me on climate but more do agree. Those that do agree will be ready to pay more or else do without.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Eared cattle are going to be sky high around here come spring. I know some Texans disagree with me on climate but more do agree. Those that do agree will be ready to pay more or else do without.

You bet that is the reason I picked up that pair of 3/4 herf's 1/8 Char and 1/8 Brimmer they will have premium wrote all over them. If I knew this drought was going to break next spring I would have packed the trailer. Got shyt in my neck in not knowing for how long I might have to make hay last.

 

[dcara]

Last I checked the Climate Prediction Center's web site showed La Nina was still intensifying resulting in lower precipitation forecasts (i.e. drought) in Texas through 2012.

 

[slick4591]

Here's another opinion:

A Texas A&M climatologist has predicted a dire forecast for Texas over the next decade.

John Nielsen-Gammon said the state could remain in a drought until 2020 because of warmer temperatures in the Atlantic ocean and cooler temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth said they understand the science behind the theory but said there no way to predict weather that far into the future.

http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/130825543.html

 

[bigbull338]

Eared cattle are going to be sky high around here come spring. I know some Texans disagree with me on climate but more do agree. Those that do agree will be ready to pay more or else do without.

right now ear cattle prices are hitting bottom.talked to a friend that went to the 3 rivers beefmaster sale.an they said the sale aved $1400,an that sale is usually a high $ sale ave.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Eared cattle are going to be sky high around here come spring. I know some Texans disagree with me on climate but more do agree. Those that do agree will be ready to pay more or else do without.

right now ear cattle prices are hitting bottom.talked to a friend that went to the 3 rivers beefmaster sale.an they said the sale aved $1400,an that sale is usually a high $ sale ave.

I am surprised that you can give a cow away right now. That is a he!! of a price for cattle in this drought. Buying a cow now knowing it is going to be on welfare just wait until there is a sign of green grass.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Eared cattle are going to be sky high around here come spring. I know some Texans disagree with me on climate but more do agree. Those that do agree will be ready to pay more or else do without.

right now ear cattle prices are hitting bottom.talked to a friend that went to the 3 rivers beefmaster sale.an they said the sale aved $1400,an that sale is usually a high $ sale ave.

I am surprised that you can give a cow away right now. That is a he!! of a price for cattle in this drought. Buying a cow now knowing it is going to be on welfare just wait until there is a sign of green grass.

You got sale barns turning people away this year. "We're over capacity".

We've been darn lucky prices have held out like they have.

Beefmasters will probably be worth their weight in gold when rains come back.

 

[bigbull338]

well from what i know about that sale prices are off by 75%.my plans are to only buy back reg beefmasters when the drought breaks completely.some beefmaster sales was cancled this year due the drought.

 

[regenwether]

Last Jan I bought some purbred Bred Angus heifers for $1350. Worth every penny. The guy I bought then from is also a ABS rep. Cream of the crop angus in my opinion. I put a herford bull on them and keep back all the blk baldies.

 

[Amo]

Going to try and post a link. Local sale barn had there first test of spring calves. Not weaned. 93 hd weighing 622# brought $1001 per head. I think bread stock will be high.

http://www.burwelllivestock.com/salesum ... SaleId=225

 

[Dave]

My best steer brought $908 a head and top heifers were $780 a head. I don't think I will have a problem paying bigger dollars than I have in the past for bred cows in the spring.