Billions will be lost.

[Old Man]

Jim Odle just said in this opening comments before this week's Superior Livestock Video auction on Dish Satellite, that reopening the Canadian border for livestock imports on March 7 will cost the U.S. cattlemen between 2.8 and 3 billion dollars a year. Now we can all have 50-cent cattle. :( :( :(

 

[Jake]

that's probably about right...

 

[Cattle Rack Rancher]

How much would that be per animal? If I was to guess I would say that there will be a temporary correction caused mostly by uncertainty when the Canadian borber opens. After trade is back to normal, I would expect the total effect might be 2-3 cents per pound. Anybody want to bet on that?

 

[Jake]

Wouldn't want to bet on it but I would guess that the initial hit will last up most of a year and then the stable market loss to be of around $10-15

 

[Cattle Rack Rancher]

I guess there are alot of other factors that may make that happen. You have to remember that before the BSE thing, we were supplying about 6-8% of the beef consumed in the US. Imports have actually increased into the US since that time. That beef is coming from Australia and South America instead of Canada. Currently, we are supplying about 3% of US beef consumption through boxed beef. If trade is normalized, it will increase rather slowly as the infrastructure to ship cattle to the US is mostly gone and will have to be rebuilt. If this is done properly, and imports from other countries are slowed as the Canadian beef is let in, the impact will be zero. There will be those, however, who will spend their time spreading rumors and lies and that will have far more effect on the market than the actual border being opened. Good Luck.

 

[Jake]

yes in theory nothing should happen to the market as the reasonalble, logical plan is that of what you stated... BUT god know that that isnt how it's going to happen, it never does. The power of the media would have to be used but the way it's built in both of our countries it will hurt us if anything because of the stories they will run... Packers will do what they can to keep prices down and as long as they dont run out of a supply of beef or have extremely high demand they will use the border as an excuse to drop our prices and keep them there.

JMO

 

[Cattle Rack Rancher]

As I said, the border opening is not the problem, it is those who would use it as an excuse to manipulate the market. From what I understand, many Americans are buying cattle up here in speculation that the border opening will go ahead. I, honestly, don't know whether to be angry at them for taking advantage of our bad situation or praise them for being smart businessmen. Good Luck.

 

[Jake]

I don't know that I can blame them, just personally hope they get stuck feeding them up there for another 6 or 7 months... I am really pessimistic about the border getting opened. I know you guys are gettting kicked in the gonads day after day with more bad news and worse markets but I don't see that until Japan and a few other export markets of ours open do we need to import any beef from Canada. Yes I've heard the arguements that allowing Canuck beef in would show that we feel safe with yours and our beef, but personally I think that's a crock of you know what... The packers are complaining about not having enough cattle to butcher but once again they come out on the news (national news) complaining about it trying to manipulate once again to get the American public to think we need to import beef to keep the plants open and keep the jobs going. Tyson foods just shut down 3 plants in Nebraska for a week because of the "low volume of cattle" but they can't be too poorly off because they are giving all their employees paid vacation during that week... PUBLICITY STUNT!!! So the reason of low cattle numbers in the U.S. must not be a problem if they can still afford that... I would say that the guess of an open border is up in the air for the next month or so, we'll ALL have to keep our eyes on it and fight for what we believe is best for one's self and their operation.

take care

Jake

 

[Oldtimer]

Jim Odle just said in this opening comments before this week's Superior Livestock Video auction on Dish Satellite, that reopening the Canadian border for livestock imports on March 7 will cost the U.S. cattlemen between 2.8 and 3 billion dollars a year. Now we can all have 50-cent cattle. :( :( :(

Jim Odle is using the figures that USDA has estimated-- While that itself will be a horrific impact to the US cattle industry, I personally feel it will be nothing compared to the amount as consumers become more knowledgeable and realize they are eating Canadian beef which is being passed off to them as US..... They are not even allowed a choice between eating possibly diseased imported beef or US-- USDA allows the packers and retailers to remove the Canadian stamps and markings, slap on a USDA stamp and pass it off as a US product......Demand for all beef could diminish especially if more Canadian BSE cattle are found.......

If the border is opened to OTM beef it needs to be marked Product of Canada all the way to the consumer.... We need Country of Origin Labeling on all our food products........Let the consumer decide.......

 

[frenchie]

Beef News
Tyson to suspend beef operations at several plants

by Pete Hisey on 1/7/05 for Meatingplace.com

Tyson Foods, citing low beef operating margins and lower demand, is suspending slaughter for three to five weeks at four of its plants and will eliminate a second shift at a fifth plant.

Workers will be asked to take paid vacation for the first week of the shutdown, then will be paid for a 32-hour week, plus benefits, for the remainder.

The four plants that will suspend operations, starting on Monday, are located in Denison, Iowa; Norfolk and West Point, Neb.; and Boise, Idaho. A plant in Pasco, Wash., will eliminate its second shift.

The moves will reduce the company's weekly slaughter by some 25,000 head, and will carry the company most of the way to the proposed opening of the Canadian border on March 7.

"This is a difficult decision, however, we believe it's the right thing for us to do at this time, especially given the challenging market conditions and unfavorable operating margins our beef business continues to face," said John Tyson, chief executive. He added that plants have been running at 75 percent or less of capacity over the past two months, compared to 85 percent to 90 percent on a historical basis.

Approximately 2,100 employees will be idled by the decision, although most are expected to be kept busy on maintenance, sanitation and training projects.

 

[frenchie]

I don't know that I can blame them, just personally hope they get stuck feeding them up there for another 6 or 7 months... I am really pessimistic about the border getting opened. I know you guys are gettting kicked in the gonads day after day with more bad news and worse markets but I don't see that until Japan and a few other export markets of ours open do we need to import any beef from Canada. Yes I've heard the arguements that allowing Canuck beef in would show that we feel safe with yours and our beef, but personally I think that's a crock of you know what... The packers are complaining about not having enough cattle to butcher but once again they come out on the news (national news) complaining about it trying to manipulate once again to get the American public to think we need to import beef to keep the plants open and keep the jobs going. Tyson foods just shut down 3 plants in Nebraska for a week because of the "low volume of cattle" but they can't be too poorly off because they are giving all their employees paid vacation during that week... PUBLICITY STUNT!!! So the reason of low cattle numbers in the U.S. must not be a problem if they can still afford that... I would say that the guess of an open border is up in the air for the next month or so, we'll ALL have to keep our eyes on it and fight for what we believe is best for one's self and their operation.

take care

Jake

Jake these guys are beginning asked by Tyson to take their holiday pay, Tyson is not paying anything extra here.

 

[Jake]

not extra just paid vacation for the week off, every program I've watched has said that...

 

[mwj]

I watched the sale your speaking of and I did not hear Jim say a word about the Ok. steers that were from Mexico!!!!!!!!!!!!! I believe the only coment he made was that they were a good set of steers. Do you supose that people have any idea where these cattle come from?
your friend
Mike

 

[Old Man]

During the sale, there were many groups of cattle that were on identified as being of Mexican origin in the bottom left corner of the screen. I also remember the auctioneer asking the reps a couple times the origin of the cattle that were being sold and none were said to be of Mexican origin that didn't already have that designation on the screen. My impression was that the buyers were very concerned, perhaps cautious, about origin. I kind of wonder why, because once a live steer or a box of boned beef gets into the US, it doesn't have to be labeled as to country of origin, as you know. If it were required, I for one would eat only US born and raised beef. Americans should, I feel, support all American industry--be it beef or cars or clothes or whatever.

 

[tapeworm]

Mexican ranchers have been buying into our best genetics for years trying to improve there herds for our market. Trade goes two ways. Do you peopel understand that or not?
Much of the profit potential on these mexican cattle is here in the states. Some of these light M cattle gain 900 or 1000 pounds here. That profit is reinvested in stockers. Sometimes it is invested in more M stockers. Sometimes it is invested in my calves. or your calves. Free trade ain't goin to kill us