Beef Exports in 2014

[HDRider]

http://beefmagazine.com/beef-exports/wh ... ports-2014

 

[HDRider]

The long-running winning streak has seemingly come to an end. Fed prices began to retreat in December as trade slipped $13 back to $158/cwt from the record-high established in November. Since that time, steer and heifer prices have made a run to the upside, even managing $169 in early-January. But that rally was short-lived.

http://beefmagazine.com/cattle-marketin ... k-come-end

 

[HDRider]

So confusing...

"If herd expansion plans move forward on adequate or better forage conditions, cull cow prices will likely stay above $90/cwt. for the remainder of the year and average in the mid $90s or higher,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

http://beefmagazine.com/cattle-prices/c ... nue-higher

 

[AllForage]

So how's does this effect you or your operation directly?

 

[greybeard]

So confusing...

"If herd expansion plans move forward on adequate or better forage conditions, cull cow prices will likely stay above $90/cwt. for the remainder of the year and average in the mid $90s or higher,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

http://beefmagazine.com/cattle-prices/c ... nue-higher

Where does the confusion come in? Herd expansion can only happen thru more heifer retention or heifer purchases (as well as buying bred cows) Fewer heifers going to market means decreased supply under stable or /\ demand so the cull cows will still bring a pretty good price or even go up.
Overall demand=steady or increasing
Overall Supply=steady or decreasing because of fewer heifers sold to slaughter=
Means steady or increasing prices for whatever is being sold for slaughter. (cull bulls, cull cows, steers)

 

[HDRider]

I am about to start an operation and we all know how high prices are right now.

My confusion comes from trying to understand if prices are going to hold steady, or are they going to drop a lot. I understand no one has a crystal ball.

I understand herd expansion is happening, and I feel like I am getting in on the high side of the cattle cycle.

I have already lived through a housing crash, I sure don't want to ride beef prices down. Probably just being overly cautious.

 

[greybeard]

I understand herd expansion is happening, and I feel like I am getting in on the high side of the cattle cycle.

I'm by no means any kind of "expert" but I don't think we have seen the top yet, but I also don't think it will take much travel to re-visit today's prices on the way back down from the top. We're close dollarwise, but I think still a year off timewise, with prices being slightly upward trending the rest of this year and early spring 2016. Mostly flatline (very little growth in price) for 2016, and a drop beginning in early 2017.

/\ all a guess. Drought, flood--anything at all can change everything.

 

[stocky]

It is hard to base our prices on herd expansion or heifer retention or how much beef is being produced in the United States. Our record high market was based on the amount of beef we were exporting at sky high prices and the smaller amount we were importing. Our national consumption has been flat because people cannot afford to buy alot of beef with this economy and the prices in the stores, thus our prices have been based on the exports. Then along came a much stronger dollar and with that, our exports became too expensive for other countries to buy and Australia, Mexico, and others found that with the strong US dollar, they could export to us a record amount of beef. So, we lost alot of export pounds and gained a huge amount of import pounds, so our record high prices took a big hit. The stronger dollar is a disaster for beef farmers. If we were to have a bad grain year and corn was to go back to 8 dollars per bushel, we might see the feeder prices cut in half. So, there is far more than herd expansion and heifer retention involved in the price of cattle. The strong dollar must first be considered before the other situations have their impact.

 

[HDRider]

It is hard to base our prices on herd expansion or heifer retention or how much beef is being produced in the United States. Our record high market was based on the amount of beef we were exporting at sky high prices and the smaller amount we were importing. Our national consumption has been flat because people cannot afford to buy alot of beef with this economy and the prices in the stores, thus our prices have been based on the exports. Then along came a much stronger dollar and with that, our exports became too expensive for other countries to buy and Australia, Mexico, and others found that with the strong US dollar, they could export to us a record amount of beef. So, we lost alot of export pounds and gained a huge amount of import pounds, so our record high prices took a big hit. The stronger dollar is a disaster for beef farmers. If we were to have a bad grain year and corn was to go back to 8 dollars per bushel, we might see the feeder prices cut in half. So, there is far more than herd expansion and heifer retention involved in the price of cattle. The strong dollar must first be considered before the other situations have their impact.

Very good point..

 

[Dave]

Along with the strong dollar there is also the longshoreman slow down. Most of the exported beef goes out through the west coast. There has been an on going dispute with the longshoreman that has put west coast ports into a stand still. That export beef has just simply not been able to get on to the ships.