2016 Corn Belt Land Prices ?

[Stocker Steve]

There are 3 farms for sale near me but I don't think any of them will change hands. Asking prices are all well above the appraised market value. Two of the three are run down.

AP just wrote up that the median Minnesota land price dropped 5.5% last year. Lots of vague articles out there that some land somewhere is down 25%, or more, from its price peak. Are you seeing trends anything close to this, or is land not selling in your immediate area either?

 

[bball]

Lots of acreage has come open for sale within the last year. Haven't seen one parcel sell yet. Neighbor has 130 acres of very marginal ground, was asking 10k per acre. I approached him when he put it for sale to see if he would sell 15 acres that adjoins me to square things up(thats when he told me 10k, naturally, I passed).
He approached me a couple weeks ago and has had a change of mind.. he has come down 4k...and that still maybe a touch too high. But atleast I'm considering that. 10k no way. Several 120 -160 ac tracts for sale. And still sitting there. Couple years ago, the sign was barely in the ground and it was already under contract.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Dropping price from 10K to 4K ? How does this guy come up with his land value ?

 

[bball]

Dropping price from 10K to 4K ? How does this guy come up with his land value ?

Apparently, he listened to his real estate agent (doesn't specialize in ag) and thought someone from Chicago would come down here spending big money on 'recreation property'. After it sat for almost a year without a bite, he has come more to his senses.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Lots of acreage has come open for sale within the last year. Haven't seen one parcel sell yet.

Talking heads say there will not be an 80s style crash because land owners have more equity now and interest rates are low. That leaves death or divorce to motivate sellers.

A modest drop in land prices here would allow you to cash flow open ground with cattle, :cowboy: but not crops.

 

[bball]

Lots of acreage has come open for sale within the last year. Haven't seen one parcel sell yet.

Talking heads say there will not be an 80s style crash because land owners have more equity now and interest rates are low. That leaves death or divorce to motivate sellers.

A modest drop in land prices here would allow you to cash flow open ground with cattle, :cowboy: but not crops.

I expect when corn/beans come back up, these parcels will start turning over again. I was hoping the land prices would come down enough to make my wheels start turning about justifying land purchase/cattle, but I think folks are holding out, believing property will move again if row crop prices turn back up.

 

[Flatbroke]

One thing about land, they are not making any more of it, and each day in this great country we loose quite a bit more to development. Yes we are printing more money each and every day also! Whether it is because of shopping malls or urban neighbor hood sprawl the price has no where to go but up...eventually.....makes you think.......... when 60 K barely buys an undeveloped lot in suburbia to build on yet we think 4K is tad high for 15 acres that touches us on one side of our existing acres? At any rate 20A places up to 20 miles out of any city in Montana sell like hot cakes at a church bazar. I wish I had a bunch of 20A places to sell!!

 

[Stocker Steve]

I expect when corn/beans come back up, these parcels will start turning over again. I was hoping the land prices would come down enough to make my wheels start turning about justifying land purchase/cattle, but I think folks are holding out, believing property will move again if row crop prices turn back up.

They are clearing and converting and making more crop land in Africa and South America. GMO systems are spreading. Will Rogers did not anticipate any of this.
No one knows how the current commodity supply surplus will play out.
My guess is that crops will not be profitable for the next couple years, and so there is no rush to buy land.

 

[SJB]

Most folks that own land do t need to sell, and they can't get any interest in their money if they did. I looked at the place I bought for 4 solid years. The owner never dropped the price a penny in those 4 years.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Most folks that own land do t need to sell, and they can't get any interest in their money if they did. I looked at the place I bought for 4 solid years. The owner never dropped the price a penny in those 4 years.

So why did he sell ?

 

[bball]

I expect when corn/beans come back up, these parcels will start turning over again. I was hoping the land prices would come down enough to make my wheels start turning about justifying land purchase/cattle, but I think folks are holding out, believing property will move again if row crop prices turn back up.

They are clearing and converting and making more crop land in Africa and South America. GMO systems are spreading. Will Rogers did not anticipate any of this.
No one knows how the current commodity supply surplus will play out.
My guess is that crops will not be profitable for the next couple years, and so there is no rush to buy land.

I think you're spot on here.

 

[bball]

One thing about land, they are not making any more of it, and each day in this great country we loose quite a bit more to development. Yes we are printing more money each and every day also! Whether it is because of shopping malls or urban neighbor hood sprawl the price has no where to go but up...eventually.....makes you think.......... when 60 K barely buys an undeveloped lot in suburbia to build on yet we think 4K is tad high for 15 acres that touches us on one side of our existing acres? At any rate 20A places up to 20 miles out of any city in Montana sell like hot cakes at a church bazar. I wish I had a bunch of 20A places to sell!!

Flatbroke, I'm probably more shrewd than I should be.but it has served me well with regard to real estate. If I had been hasty or made the purchase simply because it adjoined my place, I would have overpaid significantly. I kind of look at almost every thing i buy with the attitude of " there is very very little I actually NEED." This attitude has made some great deals for me on property, homes, autos etc. If I have something that works and does what I need it too, it has to be a very good deal for me to upgrade, else, I just walk. My wife gets embarrassed while I'm dealing, but she loves the deal when its done (and of course, not every deal gets done.and that's A OK too)

 

[bball]

Lots of acreage has come open for sale within the last year. Haven't seen one parcel sell yet.

Talking heads say there will not be an 80s style crash because land owners have more equity now and interest rates are low. That leaves death or divorce to motivate sellers.

A modest drop in land prices here would allow you to cash flow open ground with cattle, :cowboy: but not crops.

Stockers? I have been toying with the stockers idea.just may be tough to consistently find them around here. Dr Hazard is a real propenent of stockers over cow/calf in his book. Makes a lot of valid points too. Would enjoy hearing about your set up.

 

[js1234]

Western Wyoming has seen ranches come back toward reality with the O&G money drying up.

 

[hurleyjd]

Lots of acreage has come open for sale within the last year. Haven't seen one parcel sell yet.

Talking heads say there will not be an 80s style crash because land owners have more equity now and interest rates are low. That leaves death or divorce to motivate sellers.

A modest drop in land prices here would allow you to cash flow open ground with cattle, :cowboy: but not crops.

Stockers? I have been toying with the stockers idea.just may be tough to consistently find them around here. Dr Hazard is a real propenent of stockers over cow/calf in his book. Makes a lot of valid points too. Would enjoy hearing about your set up.

Everyone cannot get into the stocker business. If so and people decided to quit the cow\calf part of the business there would be no stockers to buy.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Dr Hazard is a real propenent of stockers over cow/calf in his book. Makes a lot of valid points too.

Word is that he is still running calves at 93 years young, but mostly custom grazing.
Stockers can be a blood bath in a declining market...