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Who on the boards run stocker cattle?
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<blockquote data-quote="Central Fl Cracker" data-source="post: 224573" data-attributes="member: 1921"><p>Bama</p><p>From the stocker magazine</p><p></p><p> Market Perspective</p><p>No Betting On The Come... For Now</p><p>"The last few years, time has usually saved you if you're a margin operator (feeder or stocker), now it will be against you," says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. "There's no more betting on the come."</p><p></p><p>That's the quintessential summary of cattle-industry economics now compared to last year. The market is running away from margin operators because supplies are increasing significantly relative to demand.</p><p></p><p>"The biggest difference today than at this time last year is we have about 10% more cattle on feed heading into the summer, which is record large for this time of year," explains Mike Miller, Cattle-Fax director of research and education.</p><p></p><p>Not only is a wall of increased supply set to hit the market during what are historically the softest market months of the year, it's coming at a time when high breakevens already have feeders losing around $100/head (more on yearlings, less on calf-feds, Miller says).</p><p></p><p>However, Peel believes the record April 1 cattle-on-feed numbers make reality appear darker than it actually is. Though numbers are up, he says it's not because the cattle inventory is 9%-10% larger than predicted but because more calves were forced into the feedlot earlier than anticipated by drought and a lack of stocker pasture.</p><p></p><p>"We started the year with a cattle inventory 1.7% larger than in 2005. We'll add maybe another 1-1.5% to those numbers with feeder calves from Canada. So, we have the capability for feeder cattle supplies to be 4-4.5% larger this year, but not 9%," Peel says.</p><p></p><p>Either way, Miller adds, "We're still in really good shape from a demand perspective, but probably not good enough to offset the supplies we see coming toward us."</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Central Fl Cracker, post: 224573, member: 1921"] Bama From the stocker magazine Market Perspective No Betting On The Come... For Now "The last few years, time has usually saved you if you're a margin operator (feeder or stocker), now it will be against you," says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. "There's no more betting on the come." That's the quintessential summary of cattle-industry economics now compared to last year. The market is running away from margin operators because supplies are increasing significantly relative to demand. "The biggest difference today than at this time last year is we have about 10% more cattle on feed heading into the summer, which is record large for this time of year," explains Mike Miller, Cattle-Fax director of research and education. Not only is a wall of increased supply set to hit the market during what are historically the softest market months of the year, it's coming at a time when high breakevens already have feeders losing around $100/head (more on yearlings, less on calf-feds, Miller says). However, Peel believes the record April 1 cattle-on-feed numbers make reality appear darker than it actually is. Though numbers are up, he says it's not because the cattle inventory is 9%-10% larger than predicted but because more calves were forced into the feedlot earlier than anticipated by drought and a lack of stocker pasture. "We started the year with a cattle inventory 1.7% larger than in 2005. We'll add maybe another 1-1.5% to those numbers with feeder calves from Canada. So, we have the capability for feeder cattle supplies to be 4-4.5% larger this year, but not 9%," Peel says. Either way, Miller adds, "We're still in really good shape from a demand perspective, but probably not good enough to offset the supplies we see coming toward us." [/QUOTE]
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