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Coffee Shop
What do you THINK ?
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<blockquote data-quote="larryshoat" data-source="post: 623163" data-attributes="member: 6773"><p>I know vett, that is the exact same way I approached it too . What convinced me I was wrong was the little card game I talked about in the earlier post, after I decided that switching worked, I thought about it for 2 years before I came up with an answer as to why it worked and that is that if I choose #1 and there is a 1/3 chance that the car is there, it also means that there is a 2/3 chance that it is not there, in other words there is a 2/3 chance that the car is behind one of the 2 doors that I didn't choose and if the host always opens a door with a goat behind it then the chance of the remaining door is 2/3 . If when we made a choice on the first door and then just took that door out of play, I think we would all agree that the odds of the car being behind the remaining 2 doors is 2/3, therefore if we eliminate a wrong answer from those remaining 2 doors the chance of the door that is left is 2/3 .</p><p></p><p>Very confusing I know, I think the trick to understanding this is that the host will always eliminate 1 wrong answer from the remaining 2 doors .</p><p></p><p>Larry</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="larryshoat, post: 623163, member: 6773"] I know vett, that is the exact same way I approached it too . What convinced me I was wrong was the little card game I talked about in the earlier post, after I decided that switching worked, I thought about it for 2 years before I came up with an answer as to why it worked and that is that if I choose #1 and there is a 1/3 chance that the car is there, it also means that there is a 2/3 chance that it is not there, in other words there is a 2/3 chance that the car is behind one of the 2 doors that I didn't choose and if the host always opens a door with a goat behind it then the chance of the remaining door is 2/3 . If when we made a choice on the first door and then just took that door out of play, I think we would all agree that the odds of the car being behind the remaining 2 doors is 2/3, therefore if we eliminate a wrong answer from those remaining 2 doors the chance of the door that is left is 2/3 . Very confusing I know, I think the trick to understanding this is that the host will always eliminate 1 wrong answer from the remaining 2 doors . Larry [/QUOTE]
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