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Time to Hit Lick
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<blockquote data-quote="1982vett" data-source="post: 695282" data-attributes="member: 7795"><p>Won't Get Fooled Again</p><p></p><p>By Rev Shark</p><p>RealMoney.com Contributor</p><p>9/4/2009 8:17 AM EDT</p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p></p><p>"<em>The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true."-</em>Robert Oppenheimer </p><p></p><p></p><p>Although the market has lost momentum and developed some technical cracks, lately, the big danger for market players is being too aggressively bearish. This market is very likely to contain still a few more surprises to the upside, and downside is unlikely to come quickly or smoothly. </p><p>There has seldom been a time when more folks have been rooting for a market pullback -- the bears for obvious reasons and the bulls because so many failed to embrace the stunning the rally that started back in March. This whole rally has been one of the most uncomfortable we have ever experienced, since so many market players were gun-shy after the worst market meltdown since the Great Depression. The market just kept going and going and never really allowed much time for market players to adjust to the idea that things might be improving. </p><p></p><p>It is not at all unusual for the market to make great legions uncomfortable, and, in this case, it has left a huge audience of folks who are feeling frustrated that they were too shy in the bullishness. Those who didn't quickly and aggressively jump on shallow dips had no choice but to chase the market or sit on the sidelines in frustration. </p><p></p><p>Now we are finally starting to see some more meaningful pullbacks, and these folks who missed out so much during the last few months are determined not to be left out again. They are going to continue to provide some consistent underlying support for this market. Dip buying has not failed to work for quite some time. We had a misstep on Tuesday, but buying weakness has been the way to go for a very long time now. </p><p></p><p>The great danger for the bears is that they count on these dip buyers going away too quickly. It is going to take some real disappointment to turn would-be dip buyers into frightened sideline sitters. These potential buyers are almost gleeful about the idea of some seasonal weakness that finally allows them to add long positions just in time for a resumption of the rally into the end of the year. </p><p></p><p>There are lots of fundamental reasons for this market to see more downside, and I think we eventually will, but don't look for it to come too fast. Respect the fact that there are so many dip buyers still out there who will be looking for opportunities to jump in. They aren't going to go away until they suffer some real pain, and that hasn't happened yet. </p><p></p><p>This morning, we have the monthly jobs report coming up, which should give us some insight into how market psychology is evolving. Lately, there has been a greater inclination to sell the news and lots of folks will be anticipating that response yet again. If we see sharp selling of good news that will help to confirm the idea that the character of the market is changing, however, it will also be a good test of those dip buyers if we see a poor response to the numbers. </p><p></p><p>To complicate matters a bit, we should have thin trading in front of the three-day weekend. Pre-holiday trading tends to have a bullish bias, which favors the dip buyers, so keep that in mind if we see initial weakness on the jobs numbers. </p><p></p><p>We'll see how the action looks after the numbers are out. I'm expecting some quick whipsaws, no matter what the numbers might be, but I'm not inclined to place any bets in front of the news.</p><p>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</p><p><span style="color: #0000FF">I guess I'm not one to believe the end of the world is at hand</span>.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="1982vett, post: 695282, member: 7795"] Won't Get Fooled Again By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 9/4/2009 8:17 AM EDT "[i]The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true."-[/i]Robert Oppenheimer Although the market has lost momentum and developed some technical cracks, lately, the big danger for market players is being too aggressively bearish. This market is very likely to contain still a few more surprises to the upside, and downside is unlikely to come quickly or smoothly. There has seldom been a time when more folks have been rooting for a market pullback -- the bears for obvious reasons and the bulls because so many failed to embrace the stunning the rally that started back in March. This whole rally has been one of the most uncomfortable we have ever experienced, since so many market players were gun-shy after the worst market meltdown since the Great Depression. The market just kept going and going and never really allowed much time for market players to adjust to the idea that things might be improving. It is not at all unusual for the market to make great legions uncomfortable, and, in this case, it has left a huge audience of folks who are feeling frustrated that they were too shy in the bullishness. Those who didn't quickly and aggressively jump on shallow dips had no choice but to chase the market or sit on the sidelines in frustration. Now we are finally starting to see some more meaningful pullbacks, and these folks who missed out so much during the last few months are determined not to be left out again. They are going to continue to provide some consistent underlying support for this market. Dip buying has not failed to work for quite some time. We had a misstep on Tuesday, but buying weakness has been the way to go for a very long time now. The great danger for the bears is that they count on these dip buyers going away too quickly. It is going to take some real disappointment to turn would-be dip buyers into frightened sideline sitters. These potential buyers are almost gleeful about the idea of some seasonal weakness that finally allows them to add long positions just in time for a resumption of the rally into the end of the year. There are lots of fundamental reasons for this market to see more downside, and I think we eventually will, but don't look for it to come too fast. Respect the fact that there are so many dip buyers still out there who will be looking for opportunities to jump in. They aren't going to go away until they suffer some real pain, and that hasn't happened yet. This morning, we have the monthly jobs report coming up, which should give us some insight into how market psychology is evolving. Lately, there has been a greater inclination to sell the news and lots of folks will be anticipating that response yet again. If we see sharp selling of good news that will help to confirm the idea that the character of the market is changing, however, it will also be a good test of those dip buyers if we see a poor response to the numbers. To complicate matters a bit, we should have thin trading in front of the three-day weekend. Pre-holiday trading tends to have a bullish bias, which favors the dip buyers, so keep that in mind if we see initial weakness on the jobs numbers. We'll see how the action looks after the numbers are out. I'm expecting some quick whipsaws, no matter what the numbers might be, but I'm not inclined to place any bets in front of the news. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [color=#0000FF]I guess I'm not one to believe the end of the world is at hand[/color]. [/QUOTE]
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