Texas ?

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john250

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Jul 27, 2006
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Holton, IN elevation 768 ft
Kenny has posted about $1.50 futures on 8 wts. Lot of posts about the percent of cattle sold from inventory in Texas. So, at what price point does re-building the herd begin? You guys in Texas who have sold out or trimmed to the bone--are you itching to buy back? Assuming rain, of course. What strikes you as a fair price for a cow?
I think it totally depends on inputs. Will fuel stay about the same? Will dust regulation become part of the scheme? That sort of uncertainty.
If the market for housing returned to near where it was, cattle country would turn to subdivision country so quick it would spin your head. I don't think $1.50 for 8 weights is near enough to invigorate the cow calf or the stockers.
 
As somebody who makes his living loaning money to people to buy houses let me be the first to say we're a long ways off from any growth in the housing market.
 
I won't buy back until I can get a cow that will pay for herself in 2 calves preferably 1 and a half calfs
 
still wish I didn't have the ones a have........If I didn't have them I wouldn't have gambled the $600 bucks on seed for 25 acres of oats...but once again.....I have done my part....
 
I most likely won't buy back even if after getting my back fixed next month. If I did decide to build back up most likely to be middle aged heavies from neighbors in trade for F-1 heifers. Have several wanting to put more black cattle in their pasture. I doubt if I ever run over 20 again just want enough to play with. I held on to all my younger registered Hereford's, and put an Angus bull on them. I traded a Hereford bull calf for two heifers. I haven't made up my mind to hold or sell , I will most likely sell breed to the Angus as I don't like messing with heifers. With projected prices it just won't pencil out. As I have said before I refuse to subsidize a cow out of my savings account to feed someone else.
 
Vett, why oats over rye? Rye is about the same cost per acre or less and winters well. The only reason I put it down was to get around some of the high hay prices. Of course, with no rain ........

I'm not sure about this buy back business. It seems to me the the either the drought has to end or hay prices have to come down to even consider it. Right now bred cows can be had for $950 and buying back when the drought ends will be significantly higher IF attempting to by out of the same drought region.
 
TennesseeTuxedo":543dyuds said:
What are you having done to your back CB?
Click to expand...


Have seven bad disc four in the low back three in the neck. They are going to( and I can't spell it) orthoscopicly open the nerve pathway's in my low back. I won't let them mess with neck yet. Cousin did couple years ago and is still partially paralyzed on the left side.
 
What will feeders and fats be if they ever start to pull a substantial number of heifers out of the kill?

Larry
 
My post disappeared.

If it is like last drought, there will be hundreds of imported cull angus cows going through the sale barn next year. Darn few will be slick hided. None will be the cream of the crop. Several will be traders. When an eared cow comes through the sale barn, you'll be bidding against a whole bunch of folks. I am too cheap to play with the big bidders.

THis time I held 50 head. My plan is to rebuild the brangus herd. Holding that many stretches my hay to the limit and it is a risk.

The other alternative would be to buy a brahman bull, go on and buy those angus culls next year, and try to build a new herd that way.

If it is a normal year, several hundred round bales will be stock piled. I will never again sell round bales for a $5 a bale profit margin. 3 year old hay is better than this imported junk people are paying an arm and a leg for.
 
James T":3d15eoex said:
Vett, why oats over rye? Rye is about the same cost per acre or less and winters well. The only reason I put it down was to get around some of the high hay prices. Of course, with no rain ........

I'm not sure about this buy back business. It seems to me the the either the drought has to end or hay prices have to come down to even consider it. Right now bred cows can be had for $950 and buying back when the drought ends will be significantly higher IF attempting to by out of the same drought region.
Click to expand...


Because I've seen oats come up (September 21, 2010) and survive for 90 days on an inch of rain (November 12, 2010), then go on to to provide grazing till May on 3 more inches of rain (December 24, 2010 to January 9, 2011) - even after being burnt to the ground by 3 days of 28 degree temps (February 7 - 10, 2011)....ryegrass can't/won't do that....
 
john250":1o813j7u said:
Kenny has posted about $1.50 futures on 8 wts. Lot of posts about the percent of cattle sold from inventory in Texas. So, at what price point does re-building the herd begin? You guys in Texas who have sold out or trimmed to the bone--are you itching to buy back? Assuming rain, of course. What strikes you as a fair price for a cow?
I think it totally depends on inputs. Will fuel stay about the same? Will dust regulation become part of the scheme? That sort of uncertainty.
If the market for housing returned to near where it was, cattle country would turn to subdivision country so quick it would spin your head. I don't think $1.50 for 8 weights is near enough to invigorate the cow calf or the stockers.
Click to expand...

Will the " weather liars" err Aggies err?? be right and we are at the beginning of a 10 year drought? 10 year draught!! Geez we barely made it thru the first 15 months..............itching? Yea we are itching..............;( Fuel prices? Come on maN! I don't know you too well but fuel prices are a really big problem as I see it! I doubt we have much of a chance if fuel prices do not help us provide in the days to come.....
 
Caustic Burno":3sjm4h4y said:
Boogie as I have said many times no such thing as to much hay. Thought I would be going into this winter with two years worth. Thank goodness for last year's hay.
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I saw hay that was at least 4 years old leave a field last week........gone Mustang.
 
Caustic Burno":379wfx5l said:
Boogie as I have said many times no such thing as to much hay. Thought I would be going into this winter with two years worth. Thank goodness for last year's hay.
Click to expand...

I saw hay that was at least 4 years old leave a field last week........gone Mustang.
 
Caustic Burno":235sbq4f said:
Well I guess the drought is over, when the cold front came through this morning it rained for at least 5 mins.
That should last about 10 mins in this north wind.
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More than I got.... :lol: But yeah, a cold wet one would have been nice...it is October.
 
Caustic Burno":2e7ifsez said:
TennesseeTuxedo":2e7ifsez said:
What are you having done to your back CB?
Click to expand...


Have seven bad disc four in the low back three in the neck. They are going to( and I can't spell it) orthoscopicly open the nerve pathway's in my low back. I won't let them mess with neck yet. Cousin did couple years ago and is still partially paralyzed on the left side.
Click to expand...


Man oh man, good luck with that CB. I've got a pretty messed up back as well and will be looking at some kind of surgery myself down the road. Keep us posted and prayers be with you.
 

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