Swing Acres

[john250]

I'm dealing with some acres that can raise grains or they can raise hay.
I can contract November beans for $12. I rarely fell below 40 bushels, when I raised beans, so let's use 35 as a worst case yield. 35*12=420/a
I would expect worst case hay would yield 1.5 tons (that was last year, after the April freeze and the summer drought).
To equal $420/acre the hay would have to be worth $280/ton. I bale a 1000 lb bale 4*5 so that is $140/bale.
If beans fell to 25 bu/acre, they hay would still have to be worth $200/ton or $100 per bale.
I still have some acres that are only suited for pasture, so I won't exit the cow business. But short of $2/lb feeders there are precious few acres here for cows.
Tofu, anyone.
The preceeding analysis leaves out tons of details, including some I probably haven't thought to consider. But I do think it illustrates where us cowfolk are in the fight for acres.

 

[bigbull338]

if you have the farmland.an can get those bean yelds pre acre.an that bean price or close to it a bu.an make a profit after you pay your expenses.id go the farming rout.if the beans dont make youll have soybean hay.an youll still have a few cows to boot.

 

[rkm]

John, can you double crop those beans with winter wheat? I see that a lot in Va and Md. A couple of years of that at todays prices and you will be sitting with your feet proped up.

 

[john250]

if you have the farmland.an can get those bean yelds pre acre.an that bean price or close to it a bu.an make a profit after you pay your expenses.id go the farming rout.if the beans dont make youll have soybean hay.an youll still have a few cows to boot.

Bull, yes I can get that $. I want to have 200 cows, but the numbers tell me it is more like 40. This year, anyway.

 

[john250]

John, can you double crop those beans with winter wheat? I see that a lot in Va and Md. A couple of years of that at todays prices and you will be sitting with your feet proped up.

Because of the freeze and the drought, I invested in strengthening my hay fields with wheat last fall. I have wheat to cut for hay and then I can plant sudax for hay or beans for grain (oilseeds). It seems a no brainer. A rock solid deal.

When it is too good to be true, that is where the trouble starts. Eh?

I like my feet propped up.

 

[somn]

John, can you double crop those beans with winter wheat? I see that a lot in Va and Md. A couple of years of that at todays prices and you will be sitting with your feet proped up.

Because of the freeze and the drought, I invested in strengthening my hay fields with wheat last fall. I have wheat to cut for hay and then I can plant sudax for hay or beans for grain (oilseeds). It seems a no brainer. A rock solid deal.

When it is too good to be true, that is where the trouble starts. Eh?

I like my feet propped up.

One thing you need to pencil in on that bean contract. What if you cant fulfill your contract?

It is called the harvest price option