Smallest US Cattle Herd since 1958

[Oldtimer]

Many of the industry "experts" and prognosticaters are saying that we will continue to see good cattle prices for many years to come...
Low supply, increasing nationwide and world population, many new Asian markets just beginning to use beef all lead to higher demand...

Smallest U.S. Cattle Herd Since January 1958?

Northern Ag Network
general admin posted on January 27, 2012 08:56 :: 126 Views


As the boards of trade are taking final bids Friday afternoon, the USDA will be getting ready to release their catle inventory numbers. Ahead of the 1 MST report, Allendale, Inc. has made the following predictions:

■The beef cow herd has contracted for six years straight.
■The decline in the beef cow herd over 2011 was the largest one year decline since 1985.
■Lowest January 1 total cattle herd since January 1958.
■Lowest annual calf crop since 1950. Lower calf crop numbers will continue for three years.

 

[Red Bull Breeder]

Gonna make for some wild markets OT.

 

[Alan]

Also makes me wonder if the farm raised beef market is keeping up with increasing beef prices in the super market. It's hard to justify raising a two year old steer from newborn, worm and grain him plus winter him for two winters and then some guy on craigslist adververtises $2 lb organic beef. The organic beef turns out to turned out on his 2 acres with nothing more the pasture and water, that's what in his mind makes it organic.

Hoping not to get this post hijacked, I just wonder if this market niche is keeping up. I took my low end weanling calves to market last fall and got the best price I ever gotten before ..... For some POS calves.

Alan

 

[shaz]

Also makes me wonder if the farm raised beef market is keeping up with increasing beef prices in the super market. It's hard to justify raising a two year old steer from newborn, worm and grain him plus winter him for two winters and then some guy on craigslist adververtises $2 lb organic beef. The organic beef turns out to turned out on his 2 acres with nothing more the pasture and water, that's what in his mind makes it organic.

Hoping not to get this post hijacked, I just wonder if this market niche is keeping up. I took my low end weanling calves to market last fall and got the best price I ever gotten before ..... For some POS calves.

Alan

I wonder how the packers and feedlot operators are doing. Are they getting squeezed?
Don't know if I should sell now or hold out till March.

 

[BRG]

It all depends on what happens in the world, economy, disease, etc. But if things stay the same or if the economy improves, then the market will stay very good for a long time, if not forever. The world population continues to grow at 1 1/2% a year. They way I see it, water, food, and energy will be where most the big money investments will be in the future.

 

[bigbull338]

plus the sell off of cows will only be over if the drought breaks completely.

 

[inbredredneck]

Per capita Americans consume less beef in 2011 than they did in 1958.

Herd size in 2011 is at or about at the same level as 1958, however production has increased 103% in the period between 1958 and 2011. The population increase during that period it was 78% so in reality we have more beef production per American capita now than in 1958.

 

[BRG]

Per capita Americans consume less beef in 2011 than they did in 1958.

Herd size in 2011 is at or about at the same level as 1958, however production has increased 103% in the period between 1958 and 2011. The population increase during that period it was 78% so in reality we have more beef production per American capita now than in 1958.

That all may be true, but the world population is growing and that is who we market to, not just here at home.

 

[inbredredneck]

Per capita Americans consume less beef in 2011 than they did in 1958.

Herd size in 2011 is at or about at the same level as 1958, however production has increased 103% in the period between 1958 and 2011. The population increase during that period it was 78% so in reality we have more beef production per American capita now than in 1958.

That all may be true, but the world population is growing and that is who we market to, not just here at home.

Prior to this year the US imported more beef than it exported.

 

[BRG]

Per capita Americans consume less beef in 2011 than they did in 1958.

Herd size in 2011 is at or about at the same level as 1958, however production has increased 103% in the period between 1958 and 2011. The population increase during that period it was 78% so in reality we have more beef production per American capita now than in 1958.

That all may be true, but the world population is growing and that is who we market to, not just here at home.

Prior to this year the US imported more beef than it exported.

That goes to show more and more countries are eating beef today.

 

[inbredredneck]

Exports remained at the same level imports were down.

 

[BRG]

Exports remained at the same level imports were down.

Our exports are up. Plus the meat we used to import that we don't anymore is now going somewhere else. So the other countries are either eating their own, or exprting it themselves to other beef eating countries.

 

[inbredredneck]

Exports remained at the same level imports were down.

Our exports are up. Plus the meat we used to import that we don't anymore is now going somewhere else. So the other countries are either eating their own, or exprting it themselves to other beef eating countries.

Maybe the 2011 numbers are up on exports, I have not seen them yet would you care to provide them?

 

[BRG]

Here are some numbers I just read on a USDA sight:

•U.S. beef exports
2007: 1.434 billion pounds
2008: 1.996 billion pounds
2009: 1.935 billion pounds
2010: 2.300 billion pounds

From Cattle Network:

November beef exports performed well, reaching 105,268 metric tons valued at $456.25 million. This was steady with the October 2011 volume and up slightly in value. On a year-over-year basis, November exports were up 4 percent in volume and 17 percent higher in value from the very strong totals recorded in November 2010. This boosted the January-November export total 22 percent higher in volume than a year ago to 1.179 million metric tons, and up 35 percent in value to $4.944 billion. When December results become available, beef export value will eclipse the $5 billion mark for the first time ever

From Bloomberg:

Export Surge
As supply tightens, exports are surging. The U.S. may ship a record 974,000 metric tons (2.15 billion pounds) of beef, excluding variety meats, in 2012 valued at $5.13 billion, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said. That's up 6.5 percent from an estimated 914,500 tons in 2011, the group said.

Consumers may pay as much as 5 percent more for beef this year, the biggest increase among all the food groups except for seafood, the USDA said in a Jan. 25 report. That follows an estimated 10.2 percent rise in the cost of the meat last year, and is projected to be higher than the 3.5 percent jump in overall food costs in 2012, the government said.

 

[BRG]

Here is another one from cattle network:
During September, U.S. beef exports were up 27% compared to a year earlier with every major foreign buyer purchasing more U.S. beef than in September 2010. Shipments to the top four destinations, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea, were up 8%, 13%, 16% and 20%, respectively. September beef exports equaled 10.6% of U.S. beef production during the month.

Beef imports during September were up 5% from a year earlier. The top three foreign suppliers, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, respectively shipped 13% less, 34% more, and the same amount of beef to the U.S. compared to September 2010. September beef imports were equal to 7.4% of U.S. beef production.

During the first three quarters of 2011 beef exports are up 27% and beef imports are down 14% compared to January-September 2010. Through September, 2011 beef exports have exceeded beef imports by more than 500 million pounds.

 

[Isomade]

Another listing stats for the first 3 quarters 2011.

http://www.thepigsite.com/articles/3767 ... ew-in-2011

 

[inbredredneck]

Like I said, last year was the first year we exported more beef than we imported. Take into account the fact how we import far more live cattle compared to export every year. One year doesn't establish a pattern in my opinion. We are still a net importer of beef and cattle.

 

[BRG]

Back to my original statement, population is growing 1 1/2% a year, world cattle numbers are down, exports are up. Prices are here for a while.

 

[inbredredneck]

Back to my original statement, population is growing 1 1/2% a year, world cattle numbers are down, exports are up. Prices are here for a while.

At some point they will stop paying for it, they will just take it.

 

[Jake]

It's going to be interesting to watch the feeder cattle vs live cattle board spread after the report we had last Friday. We are in for a couple years of very tight feeder supply no matter which way we skin the cat. Unless we increase Mexican or Canadian cattle imports.

These prices will eventually fall, that's the nature of the market. But I am definately in the camp of 12-18 months of continued strength because of the tight supply. Similar to what the grains are doing, we are going to reach a point that the outside markets are going to play more of a role in cattle prices than the actual fundamentals.