Rebuilding the herd

[kenny thomas]

In other Topic's many think the numbers are rebuilding. I dont see it here. Most of the heifers are being shipped. very few are being kept.
I also dont see keeping a $1500 heifer calf and taking the chance that she will be profitable in 3 years. I want the profit that is there now and will rebuild when the prices are lower. The normal (if there is such a thing any more) cattle cycles means that a heifer kept during the high part of the cycle will just be begining to produce real well when the numbers recover and prices drop. Then by the time the prices recover she is begining to get too old to be the most profitable.
If you keep a heifer during the low part of the cycle she is the most profitable during the high years of the cycle.
Read my signature before you bet the farm on what I say.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

In other Topic's many think the numbers are rebuilding. I dont see it here. Most of the heifers are being shipped. very few are being kept.
I also dont see keeping a $1500 heifer calf and taking the chance that she will be profitable in 3 years. I want the profit that is there now and will rebuild when the prices are lower. The normal (if there is such a thing any more) cattle cycles means that a heifer kept during the high part of the cycle will just be begining to produce real well when the numbers recover and prices drop. Then by the time the prices recover she is begining to get too old to be the most profitable.
If you keep a heifer during the low part of the cycle she is the most profitable during the high years of the cycle.
Read my signature before you bet the farm on what I say.

J

What you say makes a lot of sense to me Mr. Thomas.

 

[Sunfish]

I'm not saying you're wrong
Lots of bred heifers are priced at 2500-3000 though

 

[greybeard]

I figure herd rebuilding means lots of retained heifers too--heifers that won't be going to slaughter. Supply \/ with demand steady or upward, means higher market prices until those retained heifer's calves are ready for market I guess about 30 months later.
And if prices do really go up, how many people are going to stick with heifer retention hoping to cash in on the market in 30 months instead of selling while prices are on an upward swing?

 

[Bigfoot]

I agree 100%. I've worked in town, and farmed for the last 20 years. There is a certain number of cattle you can take care of, and keep your sanity while your doing that. Years ago, I picked 2014 to start building my herd to my retirement number. I sure hate keeping these high priced heifers, but I like to stick with a plan. I've even been piecing some heifers together to go with them. I hope I never sell any more 550 pound weaned steers for .80. I'd bet the row crop guys said the same thing about $2 corn, and you see what happened to that. What goes around, comes around, and these high cattle prices will be no different.

 

[Aaron]

I was interested in buying my neighbors' nine open yearling Herf/Shorthorn heifers. Drop-dead gorgeous. Took them to the sales barn and they went from $1650 to $1850. Like most women, they were far too rich for my blood.

 

[Hook]

I agree kt. With one caveat. I've retained a higher percentage this year than years before and been more critical and culling harder. With cull prices as they are.

 

[larryshoat]

I agree with everything that has been said (which is scary at best). My worry for the fat market is these fellers trying to take cheap corn and feed a profit out of these feeders that they've paid too much for. The fat market is usually killed with heavy overdone cattle. Bigfoot"s analogy with the corn is a good one, commodities in general have taken a beating, hard to believe this cattle market can live in that kind of a vacuum, maybe it can. Like Kenny says "don't bet the farm on it".

Larry

 

[Kingfisher]

It aint like they don't make em any more...there will allways be good 2-4 /5/6 year old cows for sale. I think it's just going to be a change in the way business has been done. It's a new day.

 

[bigbull338]

im seeing alot of cattlemen in my area selling out.ive been seeing that for the lasr 2 months.i think the replacements will stay high for years to come.because i dont see the sell outs stopping any time soon.

 

[jltrent]

In other Topic's many think the numbers are rebuilding. I dont see it here. Most of the heifers are being shipped. very few are being kept.
I also dont see keeping a $1500 heifer calf and taking the chance that she will be profitable in 3 years. I want the profit that is there now and will rebuild when the prices are lower. The normal (if there is such a thing any more) cattle cycles means that a heifer kept during the high part of the cycle will just be begining to produce real well when the numbers recover and prices drop. Then by the time the prices recover she is begining to get too old to be the most profitable.
If you keep a heifer during the low part of the cycle she is the most profitable during the high years of the cycle.
Read my signature before you bet the farm on what I say.

Kenny it would not surprise me if a lot of the farms don't grow up as it appears corn isn't very profitable and hay want be either. I would like to keep a few, but they are going to the market. Maybe the old cows will hang on a little longer. Sometimes I wish the market would stabilize as I believe in the long run it would be better.

 

[Nesikep]

barring a BSE crisis, or sudden open borders, etc, I don't forsee a crash in cattle prices for a while... Lots of people around here downsizing as well.. Myself, I will have more calves next year than I've ever had, I kept a couple cows I'd have normally culled, just because they'll make me some more money next year.. I may or may not breed them, and they may spend a good portion of the summer on hay rather than pasture, and then sell them next fall... Another reason I didn't cull anything this year is because I had a poor selection of replacement heifers, and as tempting as it is to cash in on cull prices now, that'll only hurt my bottom line next year.

Edit, jltrent: It would be nice if you could just bank on $1/lb culls and $2.00 for calves and have certainty about the market

 

[Caustic Burno]

In other Topic's many think the numbers are rebuilding. I dont see it here. Most of the heifers are being shipped. very few are being kept.
I also dont see keeping a $1500 heifer calf and taking the chance that she will be profitable in 3 years. I want the profit that is there now and will rebuild when the prices are lower. The normal (if there is such a thing any more) cattle cycles means that a heifer kept during the high part of the cycle will just be begining to produce real well when the numbers recover and prices drop. Then by the time the prices recover she is begining to get too old to be the most profitable.
If you keep a heifer during the low part of the cycle she is the most profitable during the high years of the cycle.
Read my signature before you bet the farm on what I say.

I agree

There is the cost factor no matter if you purchase or raise.
Heifers I bought two to three years ago for 800-1000 dollars would cost 3K today.
Secondly I see an age factor here. The guys that didn't get out are satisfied with what they are
making with the herd that is left.

 

[Toad]

I'm selling all except the heifer out of one of my best cows. I can buy am older bred cow for almost what my 6 month old heifers will bring. My guess is that prices will hold a year or two and that I can make a buck now and then hold heifers to replace these older cows in a few years. I've been able to find bred cows for $1000 - $1500 although those are harder and harder to find.