kenny thomas":3s7jy6n6 said:
Odd that all the experts did not know this before Christmas. Sure don't want them handling my money. Nothing has happened that should have made the cattle go up this much in 3 weeks. I am glad it has though. Have a few more to sell on Monday.
As far as corn goes, the "experts" on the above program, Market to Market, HAVE been advising producers to sell corn for the last month or so.
Here is their Jan 1, 2010 market analysis segment where the analyst urges producers to take advantage of profitable corn futures - corn growers could have sold some 2010 production for over $4 on the futures markets and covered themselves.
http://205.221.205.11/MarketToMarket/MarketAnalysis/a-podcast/3518disc.mp3
I think the main thing is to know what your costs of production are then sell a portion of your production on the futures market when the market offers you a profit. Corn is a bit different than cattle because you can store corn a bit easier.
However for larger cattle producers you CAN take advantage of futures markets and sell a portion of your production at intervals (once a month or once a week) when the market is offering a price above your cost of production.
Sure it may go higher later. but it may go lower too. Selling a part of production when there is a profit to be had means you won't make a "killing". But you won't go broke either. The difficult part for many of us is knowing what our real cost of production is. Also it is tough to pull the sell lever when you are busy feeding and it is -10, the waterer is frozen, etc. That is why I think it is better to establish a written sell plan and stick to it rather than having to make daily sell decisions.
As far as "experts" go, I think it is important to remember that if these folks were perfect they would probably be sipping cool drinks on a beach somewhere instead of sitting in front of TV cameras. But it is information for us to put together, combine with our own observations and local data/situation to make our own informed decisions.
jmho. Jim