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Predicting the future part II
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<blockquote data-quote="Texas PaPaw" data-source="post: 1120736" data-attributes="member: 2905"><p>Buying now and selling in fall will be like paddling upstream but not knowing how fast the river will be flowing. Could be easy or could be impossible. Due to many factors, don't think packer cows prices will decline greatly this fall but will be even higher next spring. The fall to spring price run up is one of the most reliable cycles there is due to at least 2 reasons.</p><p>1. Fall cull cow supply increases due to fall culling and burger demand declines due to colder winter weather. </p><p>2. In spring cull supply declines due to approaching green grass and burger demand increases due to warmer weather.</p><p></p><p>Can probably buy most older med to short breds for their kill value and they will be fall calvers and should be in high demand when heavy bred at late summer. Think these potential fall calvers may be your best bet as they can be calved out by you/other buyers or sold for slaughter. By stocking on the light side for summer could have grass to winter on. Don't worry about being able to be around for calving as cows have been calving without our assistance for thousands of years and older cows have proven they can do the job. My cows do get checked every day whether they need it or not if I'm around but I don't sweat it if I'm out of town for a day or 3. As long as they have plenty to eat, water to drink and possibly some windbreak for winter they can pretty much take care of their self. My experience is the old bred cows are a lot more self reliant than stockers. Fall calvers to sell after Jan should have excellent profit potential.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Texas PaPaw, post: 1120736, member: 2905"] Buying now and selling in fall will be like paddling upstream but not knowing how fast the river will be flowing. Could be easy or could be impossible. Due to many factors, don't think packer cows prices will decline greatly this fall but will be even higher next spring. The fall to spring price run up is one of the most reliable cycles there is due to at least 2 reasons. 1. Fall cull cow supply increases due to fall culling and burger demand declines due to colder winter weather. 2. In spring cull supply declines due to approaching green grass and burger demand increases due to warmer weather. Can probably buy most older med to short breds for their kill value and they will be fall calvers and should be in high demand when heavy bred at late summer. Think these potential fall calvers may be your best bet as they can be calved out by you/other buyers or sold for slaughter. By stocking on the light side for summer could have grass to winter on. Don't worry about being able to be around for calving as cows have been calving without our assistance for thousands of years and older cows have proven they can do the job. My cows do get checked every day whether they need it or not if I'm around but I don't sweat it if I'm out of town for a day or 3. As long as they have plenty to eat, water to drink and possibly some windbreak for winter they can pretty much take care of their self. My experience is the old bred cows are a lot more self reliant than stockers. Fall calvers to sell after Jan should have excellent profit potential. [/QUOTE]
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