Predicting the future part II

[Shanghai]

Where do you see cull/weigh cow prices in the fall going into winter ?

 

[NCLiz 3]

Re:

Where do you see cull/weigh cow prices in the fall going into winter ?

If you are talking about beef cattle they will continue to go up.
If you are talking about dairy cattle they won't be worth a plug nickel.

FYI: Soon you will be seeing a resurgent in CAB advertising.
SL

 

[Dave]

Re:

Where do you see cull/weigh cow prices in the fall going into winter ?

If you are talking about beef cattle they will continue to go up.
If you are talking about dairy cattle they won't be worth a plug nickel.

FYI: Soon you will be seeing a resurgent in CAB advertising.
SL

??????? Cull cows are cull cows. To the packing plants it is all about how much lean beef they get off a cow. They don't care the color or breeding of the cow. CAB is not cull cows.

Dairies are doing good right now so I don't see them adding big numbers to the cull cow stream. There is always an increase in available cull cows in the fall as cattle come out of the hills and open cows are culled. This will push the market down some. That trend will most likely hold. The question is how much will it push the market down.

 

[cow pollinater]

Dairies have more to do with the price of hamburger than we dummy cowboys like to admit. If cheese stays high and dairymen are able to keep cows then the price of cull cows will stay high as well. If my state keeps on with the drought then we're in then hamburger is going to be free by the end of the summer.

 

[Shanghai]

What would your opinion on buying thin weigh cows and turning them out on summer grass and selling in the fall

 

[Aaron]

What would your opinion on buying thin weigh cows and turning them out on summer grass and selling in the fall

As long as you aborted them all as they came through the chute, it would probably work. Some guys might think of a calf out of a cull as a bonus...I guess I don't like a bunch of extra work and surprises. I prefer rigid routine and strict management.

 

[Stocker Steve]

What would your opinion on buying thin weigh cows and turning them out on summer grass and selling in the fall

Not a lot of cows left in this area, so I don't see anyone flooding the market locally.
Seasonal price is usually lowest in the fall, so summer selling of culls will make more $$$ on average. If you do it right I think there is more 2014 profit potential here than with stockers.
I have also tried buying "June/July" calvers, syncing the cows to try moving them up, and then selling the open cows after it snows.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

What would your opinion on buying thin weigh cows and turning them out on summer grass and selling in the fall

At the current prices I wouldn't think of doing that. Cheaper heavy bred cows are the best buy right now.

 

[Shanghai]

What would your opinion on buying thin weigh cows and turning them out on summer grass and selling in the fall

Seasonal price is usually lowest in the fall, so summer selling will make more $$$ on average.

That was kind of my thought and why I was asking
Buying in spring and selling in the fall would be bassakwards on the market prices

 

[Shanghai]

What would your opinion on buying thin weigh cows and turning them out on summer grass and selling in the fall

At the current prices I wouldn't think of doing that. Cheaper heavy bred cows are the best buy right now.

I agree but calving cows isn't an option at the time

My thought was buying the cheap thin cows at say .70 ish and putting 2-3 hundred pounds on them and selling fleshy cows at .80 plus

 

[Stocker Steve]

I think stockpiling some grazing for fall, and then selling after Jan 1, could work.

 

[Shanghai]

I think stockpiling some grazing for fall, and then selling after Jan 1, could work.

I could do that
Just few details I'd need to address first but that may be the best option

 

[backhoeboogie]

Where do you see cull/weigh cow prices in the fall going into winter ?

If the drought ends, people will need something to eat their hay. If I have extra, I might just speculate on some cows this fall if the prices are right. Could be dragging home an empty trailer.

Lots of pastures still empty around here. I bit the bullet and fertilized the hay fields. Feel like it we get some rain, hay may go cheap since the herds are so low in numbers. Demand for hay will be impacted.

They told me milk was up to 26 cents a pound. That's just as outrageous as cattle prices. Surely that will play into the supply and demand.

As crazy as it is, I am actually raising bottle babies. There is profit in it again even with the high cost of milk replacer. Got beef bottle babies and some dairy heifers too for nurse cow prospects. Didn't think I would ever do bottle babies again but I have facilities at the house and the girlfriend likes doing it. Just wished I have some wet nurse cows but all of mine are dry at the moment.

I don't look for the cattle supply to be back up for quite some time. Some folks are talking about getting back in.

The breeds suitable for this climate took a serious hit in the sell out. I hear beefmasters are already jumping up there in price. Rumor is all I know on that.

Culls are worth a small fortune. Every thing that was really sorry was culled long ago and some of the culls I am seeing aren't really that bad.

My thoughts.

 

[Texas PaPaw]

Buying now and selling in fall will be like paddling upstream but not knowing how fast the river will be flowing. Could be easy or could be impossible. Due to many factors, don't think packer cows prices will decline greatly this fall but will be even higher next spring. The fall to spring price run up is one of the most reliable cycles there is due to at least 2 reasons.
1. Fall cull cow supply increases due to fall culling and burger demand declines due to colder winter weather.
2. In spring cull supply declines due to approaching green grass and burger demand increases due to warmer weather.

Can probably buy most older med to short breds for their kill value and they will be fall calvers and should be in high demand when heavy bred at late summer. Think these potential fall calvers may be your best bet as they can be calved out by you/other buyers or sold for slaughter. By stocking on the light side for summer could have grass to winter on. Don't worry about being able to be around for calving as cows have been calving without our assistance for thousands of years and older cows have proven they can do the job. My cows do get checked every day whether they need it or not if I'm around but I don't sweat it if I'm out of town for a day or 3. As long as they have plenty to eat, water to drink and possibly some windbreak for winter they can pretty much take care of their self. My experience is the old bred cows are a lot more self reliant than stockers. Fall calvers to sell after Jan should have excellent profit potential.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Can probably buy most older med to short breds for their kill value and they will be fall calvers and should be in high demand when heavy bred at late summer. Think these potential fall calvers may be your best bet as they can be calved out by you/other buyers or sold for slaughter. By stocking on the light side for summer could have grass to winter on. Fall calvers to sell after Jan should have excellent profit potential.

I think you are right on about the profit potential. Some stockpiling would allow us to graze into December during an average northern winter. Market usually goes up sharply during January.

 

[Shanghai]

Buying now and selling in fall will be like paddling upstream but not knowing how fast the river will be flowing. Could be easy or could be impossible. Due to many factors, don't think packer cows prices will decline greatly this fall but will be even higher next spring. The fall to spring price run up is one of the most reliable cycles there is due to at least 2 reasons.
1. Fall cull cow supply increases due to fall culling and burger demand declines due to colder winter weather.
2. In spring cull supply declines due to approaching green grass and burger demand increases due to warmer weather.

Can probably buy most older med to short breds for their kill value and they will be fall calvers and should be in high demand when heavy bred at late summer. Think these potential fall calvers may be your best bet as they can be calved out by you/other buyers or sold for slaughter. By stocking on the light side for summer could have grass to winter on. Don't worry about being able to be around for calving as cows have been calving without our assistance for thousands of years and older cows have proven they can do the job. My cows do get checked every day whether they need it or not if I'm around but I don't sweat it if I'm out of town for a day or 3. As long as they have plenty to eat, water to drink and possibly some windbreak for winter they can pretty much take care of their self. My experience is the old bred cows are a lot more self reliant than stockers. Fall calvers to sell after Jan should have excellent profit potential.

The winter weather and small calves would be my biggest concern
That and keeping the water thawed when I can't be there everyday to bust ice
But I could figure something out on the water
I'd really like to buy a nice set of young cows with long term plans but with the continued drought I'm thinking more about short term and being able to bail out if it doesn't rain this summer
If it start raining again it'd help lots of folks

 

[NCLiz 3]

What would your opinion on buying thin weigh cows and turning them out on summer grass and selling in the fall

Bad idea!
If you are talking about buying thin beef cows and not dairy cows:
Those thin cows are thin for a reason, so unless you are way smarter then the seller, all you are doing is buying a pig in a poke.
Fact: There is no way you can look at a cow for a few minutes and know everything the seller knows about that cow. And as the seller has already determined she should go to slaughter, you are only asking for trouble if you buy her.

The last cull I took to the barn looked poor in the herd, but looked good compared to all those being sold at the barn that day. She was in the weigh pen, destined for slaughter, when some fool bought her for his cow/calf operation. Little does he know her teeth are gone and she will never regain weight and produce a calf. I would be surprised if she last another year with her teeth.

I would suggest you stop trying to out smart those who are successful in the business and start imitating them.

SL

 

[Calhoun Farm]

I agree with denver, heavy bred cows are selling pretty cheap here. I'm going to buy some and sell them as pairs this fall.

 

[Dave]

Will it work now as in today. I would think it would be too much of a gamble for me, today. However, I know a couple guy who do this and it works for them. You have to consider regional differences in the timing. They buy thin cows in the mid to late winter. Actually one of their favorites are the thin cows that just lost their calf. Anyway they time their buying to reduce winter feeding. They go to spring grass in April and sell in mid to late June at the peak of our cull cow market. Nothing packs on the pounds like a thin dry cow on good grass. You not only benefit from the gain but in the case of cull cows you gain value on the original weight. Prices for example only, but if you buy a 1,100 pound cow for 60 cents and put 200 pounds on her. She is now a 1,300 pound cow worth 80 cents because fleshier cull cows are worth more than thin cows. So you not only get the gain you get 20 cents on the original 1,100 pounds. Stockers work the other way. A 600 pound steer that you bought for $1.60 and put 200 pound on is a 800 pound steer who is worth $1.45. So you lose value on the original weight and have to hope the gain was enough to pay the difference.

 

[A.Lane]

What would your opinion on buying thin weigh cows and turning them out on summer grass and selling in the fall

Bad idea!
If you are talking about buying thin beef cows and not dairy cows:
Those thin cows are thin for a reason, so unless you are way smarter then the seller, all you are doing is buying a pig in a poke.
Fact: There is no way you can look at a cow for a few minutes and know everything the seller knows about that cow. And as the seller has already determined she should go to slaughter, you are only asking for trouble if you buy her.

The last cull I took to the barn looked poor in the herd, but looked good compared to all those being sold at the barn that day. She was in the weigh pen, destined for slaughter, when some fool bought her for his cow/calf operation. Little does he know her teeth are gone and she will never regain weight and produce a calf. I would be surprised if she last another year with her teeth.

I would suggest you stop trying to out smart those who are successful in the business and start imitating them.

SL

Why would you say such a thing? The only way to get ahead in life is to think of things nobody else has thought of or do the things nobody has the guts to do.
I am in the same boat...trying to come up with a way to money on my place that is an hour away from my main ranch and I can't winter there or be there everyday.
I think it's a fantastic idea and might have to pencil it out to see if it would work in my area.