Outlook

[Caustic Burno]

With the price of fuel, fertilizer,corn going up along with everything else as all prices are tied to transportation and feed cost and our product prices down to 2002 levels is going to be tough.
The commodities market is just plan nuts this year on everything from rice to oil.
This will be one of the toughest years since the seventies to break even much less turn a profit .

 

[Earl Thigpen]

Hey, CB, what's going on with the rice markets? Wife came home last night and told me the grocery store was limiting the amount of rice folks could purchase - afraid of a run on it. I sure ain't seen any indication that rice was or will be in short supply and I don't know of any outside pressure (like conversion to fuel) that would cause short supply. Maybe the chinese had a crop failure last year.?

Maybe I need to get my head out and be more observant.

 

[bigbull338]

the reason they are limiting rice.is because everyone is getting scared .an buying up all the rice they can get.so they can have some food in storage.i think this 1 maybe worse than the 70s.because now you have double or triple hay feed an fuel prices.an the feedlots may get nervious an only buy the bare min # of cattle just to stay open.as for the farmer/cattlemen they will cut their overhead expenses as much as they can.

 

[john250]

Earl-several countries where rice is THE staple have halted exports. There are reports of Phillipinos in the US buying up rice here and shipping it back to family over there. I'm not a rice expert, but there are a couple varieties more scarce than others.
This is going to get worse before it gets better. The weather this season is going to be huge. If there is any hint of a dry spell in Iowa or Illinois the corn market will go bananas, and that market is already crazy.
We all have our tickets, and the coaster just pulled away going up that first hill. Strap in.

 

[john250]

With the price of fuel, fertilizer,corn going up along with everything else as all prices are tied to transportation and feed cost and our product prices down to 2002 levels is going to be tough.
The commodities market is just plan nuts this year on everything from rice to oil.
This will be one of the toughest years since the seventies to break even much less turn a profit .

The cattle coming to market now are the result of decisions we made three years ago. Who could have known then what we would face today.
Have you seen that hog producers are having trouble finding buyers for all the sows they want to ship?
My experience with hard times comes from the late 70's and 80's and this is a trainwreck to match and maybe exceed that. At least it looks like it.

 

[mnmtranching]

Hard to come up with anything optimistic. Up here so many of the producers are nearing retirement. Few young people in the cattle business. We are all hoping for a good Summer. If not, lot of cows will be sold for kill off pasture.
Can't see how it can pay to fertilize the hay. Last couple years, it was so dry we couldn't see any benefit from the fertilizer. Better off to put the money toward $130 per ton hay.

 

[Howdyjabo]

For the first time in 25 yrs I can't pencil a profit on ANYTHING.
We normally run over 1000 head thru here- this year it may just be the 45 I bought back in Jan .
Very odd feeling having no cattle-and everything sitting idle. But for right now it seems to be the best option.
The pastures need a rest after the drought last year anyhow. and to tell the truth I am enjoying the break too

 

[Earl Thigpen]

Well, it figures. Just my rotten luck. Work for thirty years to get my place ready to produce some meaning- ful income for when I retire from my day job and the economy goes to s___.

I live in an area in Texas where a lot of rice is grown and I don't see the panic going on with those folks to produce more. Usually, like corn, when there "appears" to be a shortage and the price goes up for that commodity you see folks putting every piece of arible land they have into production. Ain't happenin here. So that's why I asked the question.

Well, I've got about 50 head of 5 to 6 weight calves that I'll PO and the sale barn if they don't bring a decent price. They ain't gettin' them for nothing even if I have to take it in the shorts. I still have a couple hundred bales left from last year so I'll just feed them if that's what it takes. (And it may because we've only had 1.25 inches of rain in the past 2 months - pastures are starting to look bad.) Man, don't ya just love it!!!!! I think I'll get a Holstien bull and make a pet out of him :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[I luv herfrds]

I think with the rice what started it was an AG report on the price for rice going up. Now I didn't pay much attention either, but heard later that Wally World was limiting the amount of rice a person could buy to keep them from hoarding it.
I bet that report on Wally World got everybody to panic.

 

[Dave]

I saw something on the news out of Seattle. An Asian man who has a restaurant there goes through about 50 pounds of rice a day just for the lunch crowd. He just can't get any rice. His normal suppliers don't have any. He said that after he uses up what he has in his store room he will be out of rice and maybe business.

 

[backhoeboogie]

The media keeps talking about recession. I don't see many prices receeding on consumer goods. Rice is way up and people are hording it. A half acre spread in the city is still well over $50K. Trucks are getting really cheap. Cattle are too.

For those waiting for the prices to drop before buying cattle, the time is getting right.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Well, it figures. Just my rotten luck. Work for thirty years to get my place ready to produce some meaning- ful income for when I retire from my day job and the economy goes to s___.

I live in an area in Texas where a lot of rice is grown and I don't see the panic going on with those folks to produce more. Usually, like corn, when there "appears" to be a shortage and the price goes up for that commodity you see folks putting every piece of arible land they have into production. Ain't happenin here. So that's why I asked the question.

Well, I've got about 50 head of 5 to 6 weight calves that I'll PO and the sale barn if they don't bring a decent price. They ain't gettin' them for nothing even if I have to take it in the shorts. I still have a couple hundred bales left from last year so I'll just feed them if that's what it takes. (And it may because we've only had 1.25 inches of rain in the past 2 months - pastures are starting to look bad.) Man, don't ya just love it!!!!! I think I'll get a Holstien bull and make a pet out of him :lol: :lol: :lol:

Earl don't feel like the lone ranger, still to wet here to fertilize a couple of my hayfields and each week when I check the price it has went up again. I will bale pastures, pond dams, rightaways, before I pay 700 a ton and supplement poor hay with CLS. Talking with the neighbors this might be the year to cull hard and deep. This reminds me of the seventies going to have to get real tight with a nickel, I always thought you could make more money with more I am rethinking that. Maybe instead of carrying a cow to an acre and a half go to 1 to 3 stockpile grass. Have to cut fuel and fertilizer cost somewhere, put the pastures on an every other year fertilizer program. Most of my cost is producing hay cut the hay cost by baling poorer quality and supplement, cut the cattle to produce more hay out of the pastures without fertilize.
Or line up the trailers and go to the salebarn call Champion and have them plant the place in pines.

 

[Miss Daisy]

I saw something on the news out of Seattle. An Asian man who has a restaurant there goes through about 50 pounds of rice a day just for the lunch crowd. He just can't get any rice. His normal suppliers don't have any. He said that after he uses up what he has in his store room he will be out of rice and maybe business.

Tough luck, welcome to the world. Get it or get out!

 

[1982vett]

Well, it figures. Just my rotten luck. Work for thirty years to get my place ready to produce some meaning- ful income for when I retire from my day job and the economy goes to s___.
I live in an area in Texas where a lot of rice is grown and I don't see the panic going on with those folks to produce more. Usually, like corn, when there "appears" to be a shortage and the price goes up for that commodity you see folks putting every piece of arible land they have into production. Ain't happenin here. So that's why I asked the question.

Well, I've got about 50 head of 5 to 6 weight calves that I'll PO and the sale barn if they don't bring a decent price. They ain't gettin' them for nothing even if I have to take it in the shorts. I still have a couple hundred bales left from last year so I'll just feed them if that's what it takes. (And it may because we've only had 1.25 inches of rain in the past 2 months - pastures are starting to look bad.) Man, don't ya just love it!!!!! I think I'll get a Holstien bull and make a pet out of him :lol: :lol: :lol:

Earl don't feel like the lone ranger, still to wet here to fertilize a couple of my hayfields and each week when I check the price it has went up again. I will bale pastures, pond dams, rightaways, before I pay 700 a ton and supplement poor hay with CLS. Talking with the neighbors this might be the year to cull hard and deep. This reminds me of the seventies going to have to get real tight with a nickel, I always thought you could make more money with more I am rethinking that. Maybe instead of carrying a cow to an acre and a half go to 1 to 3 stockpile grass. Have to cut fuel and fertilizer cost somewhere, put the pastures on an every other year fertilizer program. Most of my cost is producing hay cut the hay cost by baling poorer quality and supplement, cut the cattle to produce more hay out of the pastures without fertilize. Or line up the trailers and go to the salebarn call Champion and have them plant the place in pines.

Same thought here Earl. Been dumping money into this place trying to get it together so upkeep will be simple as possible as I quickly become decrepid. Sometime think I should have put the money into t-bills. Government will gladly give you (at the moment) $1.68/$100 and ask for $.34 back next April 15th. What an offer. :roll:

Going to have to dig up that Holstien bull post and read it now. I passed it over at the time because I figgured I really didn't want to know. :lol2:

Caustic, kind of been thinking along those line also but I broke rank today. :frowns: Just couldn't stand not fertilizing the hay meadows. Took $4389.95 to fertilize 43 acres. 30-20-10 was $771.40/ton, 30-10-10 was $632.70/ton and 30-10-0 was $675.38/ton. Have vowed that this will be all until time for planting oats. 50 acres of oats will take 7 1/2 tons of 30-10-10. Cutting the herd 50% or more really wouldn't matter as a full herd has not produced living for quite some time. Would be nice for them to pay their own way, when they no longer do that, I have to agree that it is time for the trailer.

 

[ga. prime]

I prefer the Uncle Ben's variety of rice. The kind that takes 20 minutes to cook. That instant stuff is inedible.

 

[Crowderfarms]

I have to say that a false shortage will equal high prices, and in some parts of the world Civil Unrest where Rice is a staple.Imagine this scenario: 50 million Chinese with no rice in their belly's.Maybe it'll shut production down there and Wally World will ride off into the sunset.

 

[Fred]

It sounds like the shortage was over the imported rice from Thailand. There's no need to buy imported rice in the US. There is plenty of US grown rice.Buy US rice and support American rice farmers. My wife bought a 20 pound bag today and it was less than 30 cents a pound, still pretty cheap. We eat a lot of rice and gravy down here in Louisiana.

 

[TheBullLady]

I've never been much of a "shopper".. I run to the grocery store, pick up what we want / need, complain about the price and go home. The past few months I've been actually looking at the price of stuff, and it is really depressing. I can recall standing in front of the produce department looking at the yellow and red peppers with a price tag of $2.89 A PIECE. That's just not right....

And please remember.. BRAHMAN bulls make much better pets than Holsteins. :lol2: