Opinions on the market?

[tom4018]

Curious as to what others think the market will do? Has it leveled off? Or is it going lower? Futures have been quite a bit lower this week, always makes we wonder to hold or sell.

 

[Bigfoot]

My dad said cattle were down another dime here in town today. I thought we had done rubbed the bottom, so I guess I was wrong.

 

[sim.-ang.king]

Feed is cheap, and cattle are cheaper than 3 months ago, sounds like a perfect market to retain, and expand.

 

[tom4018]

Feed is cheap, and cattle are cheaper than 3 months ago, sounds like a perfect market to retain, and expand.

Trying to make my mind up about selling the steers I got now or if holding them a week or more would help. I am retaining a bunch of heifers.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

What weight Tom?

 

[tom4018]

What weight Tom?

I just have few 5 weights and a cull cow that need to go. Keeping most of the heifers.

 

[skyhightree1]

I had been talking about how prices dropped drastically here and continue... I am thinking of holding till next spring if they dont go up any this year... I have been talking with another person from this board on finishing them out then selling the meat which is also an option for me.

 

[Aaron]

All depends on how nervous the old timers are. When they get too scared, everything will be sold and the glut will hit, dropping prices like a rock. I have 3 of them within about a mile of this place, and the total head from all 3 would be about 200. But multiply that a few thousand times across this continent and the markets can turn quick.

 

[Nesikep]

I think the only thing preventing a glut here right now is the cattle are still mostly on range.. we also have very high feed prices and a shortage of feed which isn't helping anything

 

[sim.-ang.king]

Feed is cheap, and cattle are cheaper than 3 months ago, sounds like a perfect market to retain, and expand.

Trying to make my mind up about selling the steers I got now or if holding them a week or more would help. I am retaining a bunch of heifers.

Your probably going to have to hold on to them longer then a couple weeks to see the turn around, the Oct. overflow is just around the corner.
Stockpile enough feed till April, and if the market hasn't turned around before then, kick them out to pasture, and wait till the summer prices kick in, or finish them out.
Will they ever get back to the high $3 range for 4-5's again? Probably not unless there is a shortage, or demand (and with the strong US $, means less exports) , but your cost of gain is going to be low enough to make up the deference.
Only question you got to ask to yourself, can you survive without a pay check for that long, and do you have the storage and lot space to do it? Of course if you do need money, and can sell small lots over a long time, you would probably profit more then selling out right now.

I'm planning on keeping my spring calves till I wean my fall calves in March, and then shipping them all off in April.



*This is all my own opinion, and is based on my own experiences and understanding.*

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

What weight Tom?

I just have few 5 weights and a cull cow that need to go. Keeping most of the heifers.

Sell 'em now.

 

[bball]

Feed is cheap, and cattle are cheaper than 3 months ago, sounds like a perfect market to retain, and expand.

Trying to make my mind up about selling the steers I got now or if holding them a week or more would help. I am retaining a bunch of heifers.

Your probably going to have to hold on to them longer then a couple weeks to see the turn around, the Oct. overflow is just around the corner.
Stockpile enough feed till April, and if the market hasn't turned around before then, kick them out to pasture, and wait till the summer prices kick in, or finish them out.
Will they ever get back to the high $3 range for 4-5's again? Probably not unless there is a shortage, or demand (and with the strong US $, means less exports) , but your cost of gain is going to be low enough to make up the deference.
Only question you got to ask to yourself, can you survive without a pay check for that long, and do you have the storage and lot space to do it? Of course if you do need money, and can sell small lots over a long time, you would probably profit more then selling out right now.

I'm planning on keeping my spring calves till I wean my fall calves in March, and then shipping them all off in April.


*This is all my own opinion, and is based on my own experiences and understanding.*

Good call King. Was thinking the same thing.. if not going to sell them today, I would wait until Nov, Dec......or spring if a man has the feed supply cheap enough. But October is out.

 

[Nesikep]

I'm happy to have it over and done with.. perhaps I could eeke a couple bucks more by holding them, but in the current market "Take your money and run" sounds good to me

 

[Gerard Dawn]

I'll be holding on a couple of mine and see what happens this coming week.

 

[tom4018]

My dad said cattle were down another dime here in town today. I thought we had done rubbed the bottom, so I guess I was wrong.

Guthrie was down more, I just took 2 steers, a cull cow and one heifer that I thought was not good to keep. I kept all my other heifers, plan on keeping some and maybe consigning some to our county stockman's spring sale. Looking at the market report I think the steers did $2.04 and the heifer $1.95, cow was probably about $.90.

 

[bball]

Dropping every single day on the CME......

 

[Nesikep]

I don't foresee a real turnaround until the cold part of winter is over.. maybe feb-march will see a good turnaround.. I think prices will drop over the next 2 months, and then slowly come back.

 

[Bestoutwest]

My dad said cattle were down another dime here in town today. I thought we had done rubbed the bottom, so I guess I was wrong.

Guthrie was down more, I just took 2 steers, a cull cow and one heifer that I thought was not good to keep. I kept all my other heifers, plan on keeping some and maybe consigning some to our county stockman's spring sale. Looking at the market report I think the steers did $2.04 and the heifer $1.95, cow was probably about $.90.

Thing brings up something I've always wondered. Why are full grown animals so cheap (per 100 wt) vs. younger animals? Here's my newbie shining through: wouldn't a mature cow be ready for slaughter while a younger animal must be fed out thus requiring more time/feed at the feedlot?

 

[sim.-ang.king]

My dad said cattle were down another dime here in town today. I thought we had done rubbed the bottom, so I guess I was wrong.

Guthrie was down more, I just took 2 steers, a cull cow and one heifer that I thought was not good to keep. I kept all my other heifers, plan on keeping some and maybe consigning some to our county stockman's spring sale. Looking at the market report I think the steers did $2.04 and the heifer $1.95, cow was probably about $.90.

Thing brings up something I've always wondered. Why are full grown animals so cheap (per 100 wt) vs. younger animals? Here's my newbie shining through: wouldn't a mature cow be ready for slaughter while a younger animal must be fed out thus requiring more time/feed at the feedlot?

Cow are low yielding, lots of guts and bone.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Dropping every single day on the CME......

Not much motivation to buy when you see this.