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<blockquote data-quote="cmjust0" data-source="post: 226833" data-attributes="member: 2882"><p>Everything you say is true, though I sort of disagree that it all comes down to the price of a gallon of gasoline.. In fact, I don't even think it comes down specifically to the fuel content of oil.. Oil has so many uses beyond fuel, and every one of those uses is another pathway to inflation. Best not to ignore them, or we'll end up with pockets full of little tiny dollars before we know what hit us..</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Speaking of China, India, and crude oil, here's an interesting little thing I read the other day...</p><p></p><p>In 1900, the average American used 1 bbl/year.. Japan was at 1 bbl/year/person in 1950. In 1965, South Korea was using 1 bbl/year/person.. At those times, each country was just beginning an industrial revolution.. Today, the average American uses 27 bbls/year, and the average Japanese and South Korean each use 17 bbls/year.. </p><p></p><p>Now for the scary part.....</p><p></p><p>The average Chinese person uses the equivalent of 1.3 bbls/year of crude, and the average Indian uses 0.7 bbls/year -- and they're each at the beginning of the fastest, most high-tech industrial revolutions that the world has ever seen.. Add to that the fact that, between the two, they boast 2.4 BILLION people... If you figure on them getting up to around, say, 15 bbls/year/person (conservatively), you're looking at an *additional* 30+ BILLION bbls/year of consumption... Today's total, global oil usage is estimated at about 30 billion bbls/year.. </p><p></p><p>Not good. :shock: </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>...for now...</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>100% agreed. Then, realizing that they can't keep taking money from our economy and expect us to be able to buy anything, they buy T-Bonds to keep cash in our pockets... In other words, they're allowing us -- as a nation -- to make payments on their crap.. And given that the dollar is shrinking faster than T-Bonds grow, they're actually taking a hit on the loans...</p><p></p><p>They won't do that indefinitely...</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Agreed 100%, but again, they're working to move away from such complete dependency on our rampant consumerism...</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Could be true, but it all depends on when such a scenario might occur.. If we stopped buying their stuff today, we're all screwed -- but they're screwed to a MUCH greater degree.. If we stop buying their stuff in, say, a decade, who knows?? Remember, there are 1.3 billion people in China, and the vast majority of them are dirt poor today.. A rising tide lifts all boats, and China's tide is rising FAST.. Before you know it, they'll have their own little domestic economy rolling along, and they might not need us Americans to buy their crap to keep them going.. </p><p></p><p>When they don't need us anymore, they'll stop buying all those money-losing T-Bonds, and our economy will hemhorrage.. Needless to say, we'll see STIFF tariffs placed on imports and everything will get hellatious expensive.. Inflation rates will be terrible, and interest rates will skyrocket... We'll be lucky if housing prices just stagnate, instead of falling through the floor.. Stocks will go down the crapper.. Commodities will *continue* to soar (foreshadowing?).. Higher consumer prices will spur domestic production within the US... Americans will be forced to stop spending money they don't have on crap they don't need, they'll tighten their belts, and they'll go to work making the stuff the Chinese used to make.. </p><p></p><p>As the standard of living the US falls, the standard of living in India, China, Russia, Brazil, etc. will rise.. Eventually, standards in industrial nations will more or less equalize.. </p><p></p><p>Naturally, we'll be miserable and long for the good old days, but they'll be absolutely ecstatic that they can finally trade their mule for a tractor and be able to afford *a* (singular) motor vehicle for the family.. </p><p></p><p>That's my take on things to come in this "global economy."</p><p></p><p>[/RANT] :lol:</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="cmjust0, post: 226833, member: 2882"] Everything you say is true, though I sort of disagree that it all comes down to the price of a gallon of gasoline.. In fact, I don't even think it comes down specifically to the fuel content of oil.. Oil has so many uses beyond fuel, and every one of those uses is another pathway to inflation. Best not to ignore them, or we'll end up with pockets full of little tiny dollars before we know what hit us.. Speaking of China, India, and crude oil, here's an interesting little thing I read the other day... In 1900, the average American used 1 bbl/year.. Japan was at 1 bbl/year/person in 1950. In 1965, South Korea was using 1 bbl/year/person.. At those times, each country was just beginning an industrial revolution.. Today, the average American uses 27 bbls/year, and the average Japanese and South Korean each use 17 bbls/year.. Now for the scary part..... The average Chinese person uses the equivalent of 1.3 bbls/year of crude, and the average Indian uses 0.7 bbls/year -- and they're each at the beginning of the fastest, most high-tech industrial revolutions that the world has ever seen.. Add to that the fact that, between the two, they boast 2.4 BILLION people... If you figure on them getting up to around, say, 15 bbls/year/person (conservatively), you're looking at an *additional* 30+ BILLION bbls/year of consumption... Today's total, global oil usage is estimated at about 30 billion bbls/year.. Not good. :shock: ...for now... 100% agreed. Then, realizing that they can't keep taking money from our economy and expect us to be able to buy anything, they buy T-Bonds to keep cash in our pockets... In other words, they're allowing us -- as a nation -- to make payments on their crap.. And given that the dollar is shrinking faster than T-Bonds grow, they're actually taking a hit on the loans... They won't do that indefinitely... Agreed 100%, but again, they're working to move away from such complete dependency on our rampant consumerism... Could be true, but it all depends on when such a scenario might occur.. If we stopped buying their stuff today, we're all screwed -- but they're screwed to a MUCH greater degree.. If we stop buying their stuff in, say, a decade, who knows?? Remember, there are 1.3 billion people in China, and the vast majority of them are dirt poor today.. A rising tide lifts all boats, and China's tide is rising FAST.. Before you know it, they'll have their own little domestic economy rolling along, and they might not need us Americans to buy their crap to keep them going.. When they don't need us anymore, they'll stop buying all those money-losing T-Bonds, and our economy will hemhorrage.. Needless to say, we'll see STIFF tariffs placed on imports and everything will get hellatious expensive.. Inflation rates will be terrible, and interest rates will skyrocket... We'll be lucky if housing prices just stagnate, instead of falling through the floor.. Stocks will go down the crapper.. Commodities will *continue* to soar (foreshadowing?).. Higher consumer prices will spur domestic production within the US... Americans will be forced to stop spending money they don't have on crap they don't need, they'll tighten their belts, and they'll go to work making the stuff the Chinese used to make.. As the standard of living the US falls, the standard of living in India, China, Russia, Brazil, etc. will rise.. Eventually, standards in industrial nations will more or less equalize.. Naturally, we'll be miserable and long for the good old days, but they'll be absolutely ecstatic that they can finally trade their mule for a tractor and be able to afford *a* (singular) motor vehicle for the family.. That's my take on things to come in this "global economy." [/RANT] :lol: [/QUOTE]
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