new refineries

[dj]

You need a fast connection to watch the video clip.
For those with slow connections it is an interview and update on the progress of a refinery being built near Yuma,AZ.
It's kinda funny nobody is talking about this but AZ locals.
I've been trying to keep track of this for about a year now. I haven't heard anything from the national media, but
whining about no new refineries.

 

[Bluestem]

If i'm not mistaking the AZ refinery is replacing one closing in CA.

 

[cmjust0]

High gas prices have nothing to do with refineries.. High gas prices are a result of high oil prices... High oil prices are a result of a slipping dollar... The dollar's slide is a result of out of whack trade deficits and too many dollars floating around..

Look at a 5 year chart of oil, gold, silver, platinum, copper, etc. Pretty much all global commodities, things that all economies compete for, have tripled in price in the last 5 years.. It's not a coincidence -- it's inflation, pure and simple.. The US is printing dollars like they're going out of style, and there's nothing behind them.. Every dollar they print makes the rest of them worth a little less..

The only reason people don't notice their paychecks shrinking outside of gas prices is because China's currency is seriously undervalued, and everything Wal-Mart sells is made in China... In other words, your dollar still goes fairly far at Wal-Mart, so you think inflation is in check.. It's not.. It's completely out of control.. Your dollar is worth about 30% of what it was in '01, on the global market.

You may have heard that the US government is trying to get China to revalue their currency upward, too... Guess what happens if they do? Everything at Wal-Mart doubles in price overnight, and inflation becomes 100%.. Why would the government want this to happen?

Because everything doubling in price overnight is the same thing as our wages being cut in half, which makes the US more competitive -- wage wise -- with the rest of the world..

And you wondered how we could compete with an Indian who works for peanuts... :lol:

You guys probably think I'm crazy, but if you don't believe me, go to Lowes and price a roll of 12ga electrical wire.. You'll find that it's more than doubled in price in the last year.. Why? Because copper is a global commodity.. It takes twice as many dollars to buy it because our dollars are smaller than they used to be, and they don't go very far outside of our own borders..

Do what you want with that information.. I'll be over here adjusting my tinfoil hat (and researching which commodities to buy as a hedge against further inflation...) :lol:

 

[skyeagle]

I second that Cmjusto. We'r just waiting for the bottom
to drop out. I think China is setting the US up for a big
fall. Thay will wipe the US out and not even fire a shot.
And the US will haved payed for it. Nice , Go Bush'. I don't
like to work anyway.

 

[dj]

cmjust0, I'd have got back to you quicker but I forgot the shield was up blocking the signal.
Refining capacity has a lot to do with the price of gasoline.
And we have been losing capacity even with improvements to
plants. All I hear from the media is "no new refineries in 30 years". None are reporting this developement in AZ.

 

[cmjust0]

Refining capacity has a lot to do with the price of gasoline.
And we have been losing capacity even with improvements to
plants. All I hear from the media is "no new refineries in 30 years". None are reporting this developement in AZ.

Yeah, well, you just keep on telling yourself that.

I'll be over here using my knowledge of the TRUTH to make money...

 

[dj]

Refining capacity has a lot to do with the price of gasoline.
And we have been losing capacity even with improvements to
plants. All I hear from the media is "no new refineries in 30 years". None are reporting this developement in AZ.

Yeah, well, you just keep on telling yourself that.

I'll be over here using my knowledge of the TRUTH to make money...

fair nuf and in your journey to financial enlightenment if you come across any Americans using ingenuity and innovation to decrease independence on imports (of any kind) please feel free to share with me. Not interested in all your hedging. So you can keep the investment secrets. And Luck to you with them. Stole this OLD data just to illustrate what my point was here.http://www.cis.state.mi.us/mpsc/reports ... torgas.htm

"Nationally, refinery output of gasoline is averaging 8.6 million b/d in 2004, an increase of 1.5 percent over 2003. Over the first 6 months of 2004, refineries have operated at an average sustained level of 92 percent of rated capacity. Any demand not met by domestic refinery production is balanced through imports of refined gasoline. Imports of finished gasoline to the U.S. are running just under ½ million barrels per day so far this year."

I'm positive the current numbers are more dismal.
America is the answer to the energy crisis.
We gave the world the technolgy for current energy use and we will develope the next solution. I hope you use your new found wealth to support the efforts.

Scotty shields up ;-)

 

[cmjust0]

Well, while you're busy burying your head in the sand, if you happen to run across any real world examples which illustrate your position that an increase in the consumption of a finite resource will actually LOWER the price of said resource, feel free to let me know..

I wouldn't look too hard, though, given that such a stupid theory runs totally contrary to even the most basic of economic principals..

Clearly, you have no clue what you're talking about. :roll:

 

[dj]

yup too clueless to stick to the topic.
now let's get back to refining capacity and costs
of fuel. your saying one has nothing to do with the other?

 

[cmjust0]

your saying one has nothing to do with the other?

If refineries couldn't produce enough gasoline, there would be a shortage.. If there was a shortage, the price of gasoline would go up. So, yes, there *could* be a correlation.

Of course, none of that matters, because that's not the current situation. There's no gasoline shortage, period.

Ask anyone who knows anything about the oil industry, and they'll tell you that gasoline prices are high because oil is expensive -- NOT the other way around.

Ask anyone who knows what looming debt, massive trade deficits, and too much currency does to an economic system based on fiat money, and they'll tell you that oil and all other commodities are costly because the American dollar is shrinking.

But, like I said, you just keep on doing whatever it is that you're doing to protect you and yours against the inevitable collapse of the US dollar (nothing) and I'll keep doing what I'm doing...

We'll see who ends up in the soup line.

 

[dj]

Again you tie every thing under the sun to a thread.
The thread was about refineries.
And your personal insults grow tiresome.
Plain english. This is my last post to you.

 

[cmjust0]

This is my last post to you.

:clap:

 

[Campground Cattle]

dj you are actually right building new refineries would help as there is a refined product shortage. If the supply goes up it takes the speculators out of the market. If there is a surplus of products they don't want to be holding any as the chances for them losing there hind end goes up.
You have to remember refineries in the USA don't make products just for the USA they make refined products that are bought and sold many times to the highest bidder by traders and speculators. Refined products is a commodity market.

 

[cmjust0]

dj you are actually right building new refineries would help as there is a refined product shortage.

No there isn't, and I can prove it. Keep reading and it'll make sense.

If the supply goes up it takes the speculators out of the market. If there is a surplus of products they don't want to be holding any as the chances for them losing there hind end goes up.

Right! Ok, now picture yourself as an investor in crude oil.. You just bought 10,000 barrels -- $700,000 worth.. Just as you complete the transaction, every refinery in the world shuts down for one reason or another -- except ONE.. One refinery remains open.. What kind of shape are you in NOW?

Let that roll around for a few minutes...







That's right... You're effed. Suddenly, there are millions and millions of barrels going to *one* refinery.. That means there is a sudden *surplus of crude oil* on the market, and you're holding 10,000 barrels of it.. If there's any question about what just happened to your investment, go back and read your own quote about surpluses.


Now, explain to me how a refinery shortage can INCREASE the price of crude oil again???

:help: :lol:

You have to remember refineries in the USA don't make products just for the USA they make refined products that are bought and sold many times to the highest bidder by traders and speculators. Refined products is a commodity market.

That may all be true, but has no bearing on the current high price of gasoline..

Gasoline is high because oil is high.. Oil -- and all other commodities -- are high because the treasury is printing dollars like there's no tomorrow.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I see that arrogant little young man is trying to teach Camp how the oil business works. LMAO I guess there's nothing he thinks he's not an expert in. Cattle markets, NAIS, packers, now the oil and gas pricing structure. He thinks he's the greatest economics advisor the board has ever had.

 

[cmjust0]

Call me an 'arrogant little young man' if you want, Caustic, but you'd look a lot better doing it AFTER you've proven me wrong.

I double dog dare you to try.


In any case, I don't necessarily enjoy being a prick, but it seems to be the only thing most folks respond to around here.. Network news would call them "desensitized," I reckon.. Now, I dunno why that is exactly, but I'm guessing it's got something to do with a handful of crusty old farts beating people about the face and ears on a daily basis..

After all, you've got to get the mule's attention before you can plow -- right pot, errr kettle, errr Caustic?

:roll:

 

[Caustic Burno]

Call me an 'arrogant little young man' if you want, Caustic, but you'd look a lot better doing it AFTER you've proven me wrong.

I double dog dare you to try.


In any case, I don't necessarily enjoy being a prick, but it seems to be the only thing most folks respond to around here.. Network news would call them "desensitized," I reckon.. Now, I dunno why that is exactly, but I'm guessing it's got something to do with a handful of crusty old farts beating people about the face and ears on a daily basis..

After all, you've got to get the mule's attention before you can plow -- right pot, errr kettle, errr Caustic?

:roll:

I believe I have read you are 25 or 26 and you post an amazing amount of expertise in such a short life on so many subjects.
I play quite a bit in a pasture that deals with commodity markets. Supply and demand has everthing to do with commodities no matter what the dollar value is. Supply is low demand high (price is high) Supply is long demand is down (price is low ) that is commodities 101.
I trade in oil futures the only thing that will bring oil prices down is reduction by the consumer increasing supply or increased supply by refining. Oil price's will fall due to inflation and the consumer haveing fewer spenable dollars to buy products increasing supply.

 

[la4angus]

I see that arrogant little young man is trying to teach Camp how the oil business works. LMAO I guess there's nothing he thinks he's not an expert in. Cattle markets, NAIS, packers, now the oil and gas pricing structure. He thinks he's the greatest economics advisor the board has ever had.

You reckon that may be that Running Horses guy that we had on here 2 or 3 yrs ago touting the Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures.

I wonder how his short positions did for him.

 

[cmjust0]

I believe I have read you are 25 or 26 and you post an amazing amount of expertise in such a short life on so many subjects.

I'm 28, and I never claimed to be an expert.. Like old Bob Dylan said, "you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

I pay attention, and I choose to look at and learn about all kinds of things that the average person chooses to ignore. That doesn't make me a weatherman per se, but it helps me seperate fact from fiction when I hear one telling me what's headed my way.

I play quite a bit in a pasture that deals with commodity markets. Supply and demand has everthing to do with commodities no matter what the dollar value is. Supply is low demand high (price is high) Supply is long demand is down (price is low ) that is commodities 101.

Agreed, except to say that it's not only commodities 101 -- it's economics 101..

I trade in oil futures the only thing that will bring oil prices down is reduction by the consumer increasing supply....

Agreed again.

....or increased supply by refining.

Here's where I disagree..

There are two supply/demand markets at work where crude oil and petroleum products are concerned -- not just one.

In the first market, the crude oil producers are dependent on refineries to consume the oil..

In the second market, the refineries are dependent on automobile drivers, factories, etc to consume the gasoline and other refined products..

If we were reduced to one refinery, the consumer price of the *refined* products (i.e., gasoline) would skyrocket... I think we can agree on that much..

However, that only accounts for the second market..

In the first market, a *decrease* in the capacity of consumers (refineries) would lead to a *surplus* in supply (crude), if production remained steady.. If it came down to, say, two refineries and crude production remained steady, those two refineries would only have to compete against one another for millions upon millions of barrels of crude, and the price would come WAAAY down...

Conversely, if there was *more* refinery capacity than there was crude, the price of crude would go up as a result of heavy consumer (refinery) competition..

I'm honestly not trying to sound like a prick here, but it's really a pretty simple concept..

Oil price's will fall due to inflation and the consumer haveing fewer spenable dollars to buy products increasing supply.

That depends on *who* is going through the inflation.. If you're talking about US inflation, I totally disagree.. If you're talking about global inflation...well...I still disagree, but less vehemently. :lol:

The US uses about 25% of the world's oil, but China and India are using more every day. If the US saw inflation go to 100% overnight, that would -- by definition -- mean that everything would cost twice as much the next day.. If oil were $70US/bbl the day before, it would be $140US the next day.. If half the US population could no longer afford to use oil, the *world* would see a 12.5% reduction in consumption..

Point is, if it comes down as a result of lowered US consumption, it won't come down much thanks to heavy Chinese and Indian consumption..

In fact, I just don't think that *any* commodity in short supply (oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel, aluminum, steel, etc.) with strong and ever growing global demand will drop very much as a result of isolated US inflation...

But boy if you had a pocketful of each before it happened......... ;-)

 

[cmjust0]

You reckon that may be that Running Horses guy that we had on here 2 or 3 yrs ago touting the Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures.

I wonder how his short positions did for him.

If you're suggesting that I'm some other ahole reincarnated, you're wrong.. I was born this way. :lol: