Kill cows up

[Dave]

Kill cows are back up over $1.40. In fact Toppenish's report has some up to $1.57. I think with prices the way they have been we have about cleaned the country out of kill cows. But hamburger demand is still real strong. I know that the 3 cows here that lost their calves will be taking a trip as soon as weather and time allows us to sort them out of the herd.

 

[ClinchValley86]

Kill cows are back up over $1.40. In fact Toppenish's report has some up to $1.57. I think with prices the way they have been we have about cleaned the country out of kill cows. But hamburger demand is still real strong. I know that the 3 cows here that lost their calves will be taking a trip as soon as weather and time allows us to sort them out of the herd.

Sounds like things are about to get wild in the female department?

 

[MurraysMutts]

Running outta kill cows.

Been hearing that forever it seems. Next thing ya know. There's 500 more at the next sale. I think whoever keeps track, don't keep very good track of such things. OR the people who report their cow numbers might be just guessing (or lying) about how many they actually have!!

I do have a sneaking suspicion that's it's definitely gonna catch up to us one day. One day there will definitely not be many kill cows left. When that time actually comes..... who really knows!

But it's gonna get real crazy

 

[Dave]

Running outta kill cows.

Been hearing that forever it seems. Next thing ya know. There's 500 more at the next sale. I think whoever keeps track, don't keep very good track of such things. OR the people who report their cow numbers might be just guessing (or lying) about how many they actually have!!

I do have a sneaking suspicion that's it's definitely gonna catch up to us one day. One day there will definitely not be many kill cows left. When that time actually comes..... who really knows!

But it's gonna get real crazy

For the last month or so the numbers of kill cows at our sales has been steadily dropping. The 2 closest sales went from 400 cows a week to less than 100. Toppenish is still up on numbers but that is because there is a lot of mega dairies in that part of the world. Their report is broke down by percentages of critters. Of their 600 kill cows about 550 are dairy cows. Not many beef cows for a sale that serves that big of an area.

 

[SBMF 2015]

The lack of kill cows may add value to the dairy strs. Once Tyson quit killing dairy cattle there value was pretty much zero.

 

[PPRM]

Dave, the other thing that muddies up reports is Bill's ethnic cow purchases. The really fat butcher cows over 1600 pounds. He tries to get them for $1.24 in the winter but when a second buyer shows up, they go $1.60.

You are absolutely correct on a lack of beef cows. We used to feed them up and there really aren't any to buy

 

[Stocker Steve]

For the last month or so the numbers of kill cows at our sales have been steadily dropping.

Same here for both kill cows and bred cows since early December. What do you expect for one n done cows next winter?

I started a fall calving herd last winter and a small, supplemented Granny group this winter. Cow cull rate is close to zero.

 

[Dave]

Same here for both kill cows and bred cows since early December.
What do you expect for one n done cows next winter?

There will still be those around. They are about to raise their last calf for the present owner. Next fall when the ranchers preg check and age cows some of those broken mouth cows will go to town.

 

[Stocker Steve]

There will still be those around. They are about to raise their last calf for the present owner. Next fall when the ranchers preg check and age cows some of those broken mouth cows will go to town.

True. The better question is how will they be priced? The price premium above kill increased here, as number of breds for sale went down.

 

[Dave]

True. The better question is how will they be priced? The price premium above kill increased here, as number of breds for sale went down.

I had to pay more for the cows I bought in January than I paid in late October. But that happens every year. I always let next year take care of next year. If they get too far out of line there will be something else which is cheap.

 

[greybeard]

Running outta kill cows.

Been hearing that forever it seems. Next thing ya know. There's 500 more at the next sale. I think whoever keeps track, don't keep very good track of such things. OR the people who report their cow numbers might be just guessing (or lying) about how many they actually have!!

I do have a sneaking suspicion that's it's definitely gonna catch up to us one day. One day there will definitely not be many kill cows left. When that time actually comes..... who really knows!

But it's gonna get real crazy

Knowbody knows how many head there really are in the US, and if USDA was honest, they'd tell ya they have no idea how many farms there are in the US either. All they go by is how many people fill out and turn in that every 5 yr ag census and my guess from talking to people on the ground, is less than 1/2 send it in and lots of those just pencil crap in to be able to say they did it..

 

[4hfarms]

Tomorrow's kill cows were some ones producer last year.

Prepare to thin the herd.

Again...

 

[bird dog]

You also have to consider the size of kill cows. They are getting smaller so it take more of them to meet hamburger requirements. Big cows are leaving at a much more rapid pace than the 1000 lb'ers. A short bred cow around here over 1400 lbs has very little chance going back to the farm no matter what her age is. This is where we are losing good quality animals.

In my one and done group this year I bought a 1450 lb Brangus cow that the vet called solid mouth bred 5 months. She was not real pretty, a little bit spooky and has a lot of ear. I only paid about $100 over kill prices which with her weight was a lot of money for a one and done. In the three months I have owned her she shaped up, calved a nice bull calf and calmed down to where she is no worry to be standing 5' from her. Her udder is as good as you could hope for. She will join my main herd even though she is bigger than I like.

 

[mwj]

Those kill cows are not going to be all burger. Check the USDA web sight on cow slaughter and you will find a majority goes out as higher value cuts. Commercial food service uses a lot of cow beef.

 

[Dave]

You also have to consider the size of kill cows. They are getting smaller so it take more of them to meet hamburger requirements. Big cows are leaving at a much more rapid pace than the 1000 lb'ers. A short bred cow around here over 1400 lbs has very little chance going back to the farm no matter what her age is. This is where we are losing good quality animals.

In my one and done group this year I bought a 1450 lb Brangus cow that the vet called solid mouth bred 5 months. She was not real pretty, a little bit spooky and has a lot of ear. I only paid about $100 over kill prices which with her weight was a lot of money for a one and done. In the three months I have owned her she shaped up, calved a nice bull calf and calmed down to where she is no worry to be standing 5' from her. Her udder is as good as you could hope for. She will join my main herd even though she is bigger than I like.

Here any short breds (3/4 months or less) go to kill 95% of the time no matter what their size is. I figured out the average price per pound on the 60 one and done cows here. It came out to a little under $1.30 a pound. The last 14 I bought on January 16. They averaged costing $1.44 a lb. That is not a lot over kill price on that day.

 

[ClinchValley86]

Those kill cows are not going to be all burger. Check the USDA web sight on cow slaughter and you will find a majority goes out as higher value cuts. Commercial food service uses a lot of cow beef.

just got done eating a ribeye from a 7 to 8 year old. Was perfect! Ate one yesterday too. Great flavor without the corn

 

[ClinchValley86]

going to guess this one is 5 to 7. She's currently hanging at the processor. Gonna be extra good eating. Fed 1.5% bw in corn for 60 days and free choice clover/grass hay. It's headed to all a freezer in Alabama.

Sadly this game/strategy is a thing of the past. This one I paid $1.48/#. After hauling and feeding and hauling again there was hardly anything left over.

 

[Dave]

going to guess this one is 5 to 7. She's currently hanging at the processor. Gonna be extra good eating. Fed 1.5% bw in corn for 60 days and free choice clover/grass hay. It's headed to all a freezer in Alabama.

Sadly this game/strategy is a thing of the past. This one I paid $1.48/#. After hauling and feeding and hauling again there was hardly anything left over.

Not a thing of the past. Just temporarily not economical to do. These prices wont high stay forever. Might take a year or three. Just like the old one and done cows or buying heifers, breeding and selling as bred heifers. They can make you a lot of money but the time will come when it wont. The secret is when to get in and when to get out.

 

[SBMF 2015]

if USDA was honest, they'd tell ya they have no idea how many farms there are in the US either

Now what fun would that be for the speculators in the market? Lol

 

[ClinchValley86]

Not a thing of the past. Just temporarily not economical to do. These prices wont high stay forever. Might take a year or three. Just like the old one and done cows or buying heifers, breeding and selling as bred heifers. They can make you a lot of money but the time will come when it wont. The secret is when to get in and when to get out.

the one and done thing is something I'd like to give a whirl too. Share all the dang secrets w me!!!

How high you think these pound cows could go?