Inconclusive BSE Test

[Texan]

Please note that this is only an inconclusive test. Some rumors are reporting it to be a second confirmed case. We've already had several of these that were all negative on confirmatory tests!

Release No. 0501.04
by Andrea Morgan
Associate Deputy Administrator
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture

November 18, 2004

“Early this morning, we were notified that an inconclusive BSE test result was received on a rapid screening test used as part of our enhanced BSE surveillance program.

   “The inconclusive result does not mean we have found another case of BSE in this country. Inconclusive results are a normal component of screening tests, which are designed to be extremely sensitive so they will detect any sample that could possibly be positive.

  “Tissue samples are now being sent to USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories—the national BSE reference lab—which will run confirmatory testing.

“Because this test is only an inconclusive test result, we are not disclosing details specific to this test at this time.

“APHIS has begun internal steps to begin initial tracebacks, if further testing were to return a positive result. However, it is important to note, that this animal did not enter the food or feed chain.

“Confirmatory results are expected back from NVSL within the next 4 to 7 days. If the test comes back positive for BSE, we will provide additional information about the animal and its origin.

“USDA remains confident in the safety of the U.S. beef supply. Our ban on specified risk materials from the human food chain provides the protection to public health, should another case of BSE ever be detected in the United States.

“Screening tests are often used in both human and animal health and inconclusives are not unexpected. These tests cast a very wide net and many end up negative during further testing.

“And some subset of these animals may even turn out to be positive for BSE. While none of us wants to see that happen, that is not unexpected either. Our surveillance program is designed to test as many animals as we can in the populations that are considered to be at high risk for BSE."

 

[Jake]

I think everybody needs to pray that we don't have another case out of this....

 

[ollie]

Don't get me wrong Jake I don't want more BSE . Tell me though why you think this case would be worse than the last. Seems to me that the American consumer "consumed" and we found our way out of the last BSE case. As much as I respect and appreciate what our friends to the north are doing to stay afloat, this isn't Canada. I can't see why the fundamentals are so much different than the last case and if the case is confirmed then I would expect what we had last time as it relates to price swings and market volitility

 

[Jake]

my biggest concern is that if we have two confirmed cases:
1. We'll lose our export market to Japan again
2. It will give even more of a chance of an open border because who's beef would be safer? Canadians 1 cow herd or our 2 cow herd?
3. I'd hate to see the effect on the consumers minds if all of a sudden we no longer have a "safe" product... who knows another cow may be all it takes

 

[ollie]

Jake from reports that I have seen the American consumer is very satisfied with the safety of U. S. Beef. As far as your other two concerns I think they are unvalid. Gentlemen we can't run back into the house everytime a raindrop hits us. This is a mature market with no room for error if your looking for profits. The same maturity also has entrenched shoping habits and eating habits that cannot disolve over night. If this suspected case is confirmed all we would have to do as an industry is shoot one of our cows and go buy one to replace her and the price would increase. It is supply and demand. The demand will be there.

 

[frenchie]

Please note that this is only an inconclusive test. Some rumors are reporting it to be a second confirmed case. We've already had several of these that were all negative on confirmatory tests!

Release No. 0501.04
by Andrea Morgan
Associate Deputy Administrator
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture

November 18, 2004

“Early this morning, we were notified that an inconclusive BSE test result was received on a rapid screening test used as part of our enhanced BSE surveillance program.

   “The inconclusive result does not mean we have found another case of BSE in this country. Inconclusive results are a normal component of screening tests, which are designed to be extremely sensitive so they will detect any sample that could possibly be positive.

  “Tissue samples are now being sent to USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories—the national BSE reference lab—which will run confirmatory testing.

“Because this test is only an inconclusive test result, we are not disclosing details specific to this test at this time.

“APHIS has begun internal steps to begin initial tracebacks, if further testing were to return a positive result. However, it is important to note, that this animal did not enter the food or feed chain.

“Confirmatory results are expected back from NVSL within the next 4 to 7 days. If the test comes back positive for BSE, we will provide additional information about the animal and its origin.

“USDA remains confident in the safety of the U.S. beef supply. Our ban on specified risk materials from the human food chain provides the protection to public health, should another case of BSE ever be detected in the United States.

“Screening tests are often used in both human and animal health and inconclusives are not unexpected. These tests cast a very wide net and many end up negative during further testing.

“And some subset of these animals may even turn out to be positive for BSE. While none of us wants to see that happen, that is not unexpected either. Our surveillance program is designed to test as many animals as we can in the populations that are considered to be at high risk for BSE."

Why do they even bother announcing this. Why not wait till they have a confirmed case.

 

[Texan]

I expect that we should all prepare for the worst with this one. :shock:

 

[ollie]

The worst as far as Frenchie is concerned is that it is another Canadian origin cow. If that should happen to be the case my Canadian friends are in a pinch.

 

[ollie]

[If the test comes back positive for BSE, we will provide additional information about the animal and its origin.

 

[frenchie]

The worst as far as Frenchie is concerned is that it is another Canadian origin cow. If that should happen to be the case my Canadian friends are in a pinch.

It would be even worse if it is An American cow, who do you think the majority of our boxed beef is exported to.

To be very honest I pray that no-one in the U.S ever gets to experience a homegrown case of B.S.E

 

[Texan]

To be very honest I pray that no-one in the U.S ever gets to experience a homegrown case of B.S.E

Thanks, Frenchie. I'd also really hate to have one. Then all of us would have to reap the seeds that R-CALF has sown!

 

[MrBilly]

For what it is worth, the current quick test is a three well test. Originally, if the first well was positive it was reported to the public. That was changed and the current animal was positive in both well one and two, so the information was released.

Cattle Fax on November 19, 2004 quoted part of the joint understanding, "The joint understanding that the US and Japan outlined......Both.... have food safety systems in place that are sufficiently robust such that identification of a few additional BSE cases will not result in market closures and disruption ....without scientific foundations." Not sure what the latter part of the statement means?

Of course the markets really haven't opened quite yet, but are poised to do so.

My personal feeling is that the USDA should keep quiet until preliminary positive quick tests are confirmed to be BSE by immunohistochemistry, or the "gold Standard, test. Frankly, it helps no one to cause this anxiety among producers, markets and the public. Hopefully, when we get a new Sectretary of Agriculture this policy will change.

We should be hopeful that our State Cattle Associations, and the National Beef Cattlement's Association, will do all they can to keep the public informed as they have done in the past. It's a small price to pay to belong to such organizations that are in such a position and have the resources to help educate the public when needed.

MrBilly :cboy:

 

[amazed]

The worst as far as Frenchie is concerned is that it is another Canadian origin cow. If that should happen to be the case my Canadian friends are in a pinch.

Actually that is not quite accurate.

It is not as important where she was born as when. Let's all hope if this animal is positive that it was born prior to the feed ban.

Canada would be allowed 12-13 positive animals and still be classified a minimal risk country according to OIE standards based on current cattle population.

It is a fact that there is BSE in both countries and we will find more positives in both due to increased testing. Seek and ye shall find!

 

[amazed]

my biggest concern is that if we have two confirmed cases:
1. We'll lose our export market to Japan again
2. It will give even more of a chance of an open border because who's beef would be safer? Canadians 1 cow herd or our 2 cow herd?
3. I'd hate to see the effect on the consumers minds if all of a sudden we no longer have a "safe" product... who knows another cow may be all it takes

1. You can't lose your market to Japan because you haven't getten it back. The Japanese aren't stupid. They have known all along there will be more cases in N.America so I don't I don't see this as a big factor as long as they want to view the science and not the politics.

2.As long as positives don't enter the food and feed supply beef will continue to be as safe as it was yesterday.

3.R-half has already pushed the envelope on that one and there is no going back now. I wouldn't want to be an r-half leader and explain some of their stupid stunts they have pulled regarding Canadian beef in the past 18 months. I don't expect the crow they will be eating will taste too good and let's all hope that the American consumer sees them for what they are.

 

[amazed]

You make some good points in your post MrBilly however you are missing one important fact.

"We should be hopeful that our State Cattle Associations, and the National Beef Cattlement's Association, will do all they can to keep the public informed as they have done in the past. It's a small price to pay to belong to such organizations that are in such a position and have the resources to help educate the public when needed."

Not all state asscoiations support NCBA! Some have thrown their support and funding behind R-half. You know, the group who has been running around for the past 18 months saying BSE IS A HUMAN HEALTH risk and that beef from countries with BSE is DISEASED and TAINTED.

It is time for some US producers to start asking some hard questions of the state Associations they belong to. Check the R-calf USA website and see who their affiliate members are!

 

[MrBilly]

Yeah, I heard about that, but I live in a state where our association supports us, not some other organization like the National Beef Cattlemen's Association.

The fact that they happen to think similarly is good, but we have a strong, vibrant and hard working association which gets input from membership and seems to respond to the thinking of the membership. Not being in an association at all, would probably be worse because then it is you alone against the masses. You know what that means? It takes leadership within the cattlemens' membership to get associations to think right. And, if they don't. you change the thinking of the leadership of the association by voting them out. Working hard within the membership to change things is key in my opinion. It takes work, hard work.

 

[ollie]

Just off the usda web page Mon. the 22nd at 6:19 ..... I don't know what is taking so long. Last time they retested the cow Dec. the 23rd that they got a positive test the 22nd.