Hay stocks way down for 2022

[Dusty Britches]

Nationally the US is 7% lower year over year and 15% lower on the 10 year average. Regionally, it is even worse. Montana, SD, ND, WY are down 49.2%. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas are down 12% year over year and 25% on the 10 year average.

Oklahoma is down 48% year over year but Texas is up 33% year over year. Texas still lags the 10 year average, being down 10.6%.

CA, WA, OR, and ID had May 1 hay stocks up 6.1% from last year, but down 15% from the 10 year average.

CO had hay stocks up 152.2% year over year and up 30.3% over the 10 year average. Nebraska had May 1 hay stocks up 25% year over year and 14.1% above the 2012-2021 average.

Link: Beef

I'm thinking that adjusting for the higher costs of production and inflation, hay prices should rightfully be higher. This might be the year hay producers make some decent income.

 

[shaz]

I didn't buy chicken litter of fertilizer this year and it's looking dry. Probably not going to over winter a calf crop this year.

 

[Dave]

I'm thinking that adjusting for the higher costs of production and inflation, hay prices should rightfully be higher. This might be the year hay producers make some decent income.

With hay costing $300 a ton this last winter and having last year's input costs I think they made pretty decent money. This year with the cost of fertilizer and fuel I think the price will be out of sight just for them to break even. People who have to buy hay will be selling cows.

 

[Stocker Steve]

With hay costing $300 a ton this last winter and having last year's input costs I think they made pretty decent money. This year with the cost of fertilizer and fuel I think the price will be out of sight just for them to break even. People who have to buy hay will be selling cows.

So more imported beef once we run out of cows to kill?

 

[Dave]

So more imported beef once we run out of cows to kill?

I think a lot of bankrupt farmers. Beef guys who try to buy the high price feed. Hay and grain growers who paid the high input cost and can't sell it to the guys who sold all the cows. Which comes first the chicken or the egg?

 

[Stocker Steve]

Chicken.

Here Biden bucks and crop insurance and freight subsides have allowed most producers to pay the higher input prices. Obviously many price trends will reverse in the next couple years, but the cow calf guy who has been buying a lot of feed will out of business before then. I don't think some understand how risky this period is.

 

[DCA farm]

I just told my hay man to bring me 2 trailer loads of this cutting he asked me how many more im gonna need I told him put me down for 2 trailer loads off each cutting and to call me or message me if he thinks he can do more than 2 loads a cutting I'll come up with the money

 

[KAstocker]

Good time to have grass

 

[jltrent]

So more imported beef once we run out of cows to kill?

Exactly..........................cattle farmers have very little leverage. Not sure the imports will hold up long, but with $10+ a pound at the retailer who is going to keep buying at those prices?

 

[Stocker Steve]

Good time to have grass

Yes, and the quickist way to have grass is to have less cows.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Guys that feed thin cows this winter made money. Could make baleage this summer and try buying thin cows this fall.

I think these "none and done" cows will make more money than the ones you maintain for 8 to 12 years.