grain prices

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GMN

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We got our cow grain today, it went up again. Asked the guy if it was ever go down again, to what it use to be, and he said he did not know, what do you all think, will grain ever be cheap again?

Gail
 
yes it will as always it might take awhile and it may not go as low as it was. but last time i went town to get corn i bought "screens" instead(it is just the small stuff that they screen that falls through it is cracked corn, wheat, milo, sunflower seeds. then you dont have to run it through the cracker) it is cheaper and it is just as good every once in awhile you will get a bad load but other than that it is great and cheaper. i would tell you how much it is but i cant find the reciept
 
They say what goes up, must come down. I sure hope so. Don't know if we can hold on long enough to find out. Just sent 70 head of sows, 100#ers, and 60#ers down the road today because of $4 corn. Will be sending another load out in a week or two. Can't stand the loss. Don't know where our futures headed. It's been a really rough couple of days around here with no end in sight.
 
if my memory is correct.ive been caught in the high feed prices a few times.when feed would go from $7.73/100 to $9/100 an even some $10/100 feed costs as well.itll come back down sooner or later.the thing is when it goes up high.you cut back on feeding your dry cows an heifers.if it was me id sale all my heifers.so id only have to feed the milking an dry cows.heifers are 20% of the feed bill.an no return on they till they come fresh.you can buy fresh cows an heifers cheaper than you can raise them.
 
There's a different player now, it's called ethanol. Using 25% of the 06 corn crop and 40% of 07 crop. Ethanol is subsidized. don't look for corn to come down much.
 
Grain and some other crops will be sold according to their BTU output potential from here out.

It's a new game.
 
mnmtranching":3bplh517 said:
There's a different player now, it's called ethanol. Using 25% of the 06 corn crop and 40% of 07 crop. Ethanol is subsidized. don't look for corn to come down much.

If grain prices were up because the supply was short - - you would expect a good production year to bring prices back down. But we are having high grain production and high grain prices due to all the ethanol plants coming on line. These plants will keep running even if their subsidy is cut. The only thing that would really impact them is crude oil prices. I don't think we can expect cheap oil soon...

Latin America has had high priced grain and still produced a lot of beef, but most of it is grass feed.

I have been converting crop land to beef pasture. It was a no brainer when folks were losing money growing $2 corn, but the comparison of grain vs. grazing returns has really changed this past year.
 
Moocow11":fikxq0bz said:
yes it will as always it might take awhile and it may not go as low as it was. but last time i went town to get corn i bought "screens" instead(it is just the small stuff that they screen that falls through it is cracked corn, wheat, milo, sunflower seeds. then you dont have to run it through the cracker) it is cheaper and it is just as good every once in awhile you will get a bad load but other than that it is great and cheaper. i would tell you how much it is but i cant find the reciept
I beleive this to be true to a point. With the price increase more farmers will find it more profitable to raise corn insteat of less profitable crops. This will tend to bring the price down a bit or at least stabelize it.
I talked to my feed supplier yesterday and he is looking into less expensive substitutes.
It will take a while for the adjustments to take effect. Until then we will have to manage pastures a lot better, and grow a very high quality hay.
 
I talked to an individual involved in the upper managment in the ethanol industry. He told me to prepare for a $3.50 bottom on corn he stated that ethanol plants will need to bid atleast $3.50 to keep the corn away from the export markets. He also said he doesn't look for a high price of over $4.00 to last any extent of time. I guess it will only be a matter of time to figure out if he was right or not.
 
Won't the supply increase since demand is increasing? What I mean is won't more people start growing corn? Won't the price fix itself in the long run?

Walt
 

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