EPD's are BS

[Midtenn]

I don't know if that's true, but i got your attention. Case in point.....VAR Generation 2100, considered a high accuracy sire....right now His milk is 20 at .41 accuracy. I looked back at the spring catalogue and he was 44 at .27 accuracy. Can someone explain to me how that is even possible?
He is just one of hundreds of examples you could name of numbers changing drastically.

Another example is this yearling bull here at the house. He weighed 69# at birth and his epd was ced 6 and bw 1.0. DNA test brought his ww number down but bw and ced stayed steady. then after i turned in actual ww his numbers changed drastically to ced 0 and bw 3.0. No ancestor in his bloodline was ever over 2.0 bw. I think I'm going to ignore the numbers and use him on heifers come December.
But what really bothers me, one of his contemporary who was basically same actual bw and ww. I sold him to a customer who specifically did not want "little bitty" calves. His ced was like 9 and bw was like +.8. A week after the sale his numbers went to ced 15 and bw -2.0. I told the customer about the number change and offered to let him trade for a different bull. I just hope he ends up with some nice healthy 85 pounders.

 

[talltimber]

LOL Good click bait title! I had to look.

This reminds me of what my neighbor said to me once. "Do you ever wonder why the guys selling low bw bulls never have a calf over 70 pounds?", and "I bet if you look around, you can find some October born fair calves on the ground right now" (this was in August)
I don't know how they change going through an Assoc like that, but the rest is pretty easy to understand how that works.

 

[Bright Raven]

Some of the anomalies you mention are a function of a paucity of data. In statistics (that is all EPDs are is statistics based on data points), if there are too few data points it accentuates the extremes. As data points increase so does accuracy. In the first couple years, a bulls numbers have the potential of reflecting extremes. As data accumulates, those extremes mellow out. Statistics is a fascinating study. It is amazing the difference between say 10 data points and 100.

I would not accept your assertion that EPDs are BS. On the other hand, they are not absolutes, they are statistics.

 

[Chocolate Cow]

The Angus Assoc recently revised their EPD system to something called "One Step". It made a lot of changes in a lot of animals. It's touted as having greater accuracy.

 

[Bright Raven]

The Angus Assoc recently revised their EPD system to something called "One Step". It made a lot of changes in a lot of animals. It's touted as having greater accuracy.

Do you know the mechanics of how it collects and reports data?

 

[Chocolate Cow]

Bright Raven, I've been told this article explains One Step very well. I haven't taken time to read it. There are just a few EPD's I consider worth looking at and the type of Angus I prefer, The Association doesn't treat them well anyway.
https://wlj.net/article-permalink-14428.html

 

[Bright Raven]

Bright Raven, I've been told this article explains One Step very well. I haven't taken time to read it. There are just a few EPD's I consider worth looking at and the type of Angus I prefer, The Association doesn't treat them well anyway.
https://wlj.net/article-permalink-14428.html

Interesting. Thanks. Made me aware of how much modeling and statistical equations are involved. Relating EPDs to DNA markers really increases the value of EPDs, iMO.

 

[Chocolate Cow]

You're welcome.

 

[boondocks]

The Angus Assoc recently revised their EPD system to something called "One Step". It made a lot of changes in a lot of animals. It's touted as having greater accuracy.

I don't know if it's a function of that or not, but when we were recently picking Angus AI sires from the Select Sires catalog, I went online to see updated EPDs. They had changed far more drastically than in prior years, since the catalog was mailed just a few months' earlier. Almost all had "worse" EPDs than before. In some cases, the changes were startling.

 

[Chocolate Cow]

In my not-worth-much opinion....EPD's were in their own race to the sky. The $Beef, Milk, Weaning numbers were rocketing to some incredibly lofty highs. I wondered how, when or if they would rein it in. Try to slow the hyper number race down. Maybe this is their answer? I really struggle with giving much credibility to EPD's. CED, milk and $EN are the ones I utilize. Interestingly, $EN is the one most breeders would like to do away with.

 

[Son of Butch]

A top 10% bull is still a top 10% bull epds are for comparing individuals to each other or vs breed average use the
% ranking. $W and $B are also affected by the drop in beef prices vs year ago or whenever your bull book was published.

 

[Midtenn]

In my not-worth-much opinion....EPD's were in their own race to the sky. The $Beef, Milk, Weaning numbers were rocketing to some incredibly lofty highs. I wondered how, when or if they would rein it in. Try to slow the hyper number race down. Maybe this is their answer? I really struggle with giving much credibility to EPD's. CED, milk and $EN are the ones I utilize. Interestingly, $EN is the one most breeders would like to do away with.

Until now, I also put a lot of emphasis on milk,EN, and CEM.....but with the example i used of VAR Generation, a so-called high accuracy bull, who's milk just moved 24 points overnight.....what's the use selecting sires based on numbers if they can move from top 10% to bottom10% before your semen arrives?

 

[Midtenn]

A top 10% bull is still a top 10% bull epds are for comparing individuals to each other or vs breed average use the
% ranking. $W and $B are also affected by the drop in beef prices vs year ago or whenever your bull book was published.

Incorrect statement you put there. The top 10% milk bull I mentioned "VAR generation"' , is no longer a top 10% bull. I'm not talking about dollar values at all. A pound of milk weighs the same every year ....a pound.
I would have never considered using this bull last spring, but now he's at the top of my list, a list in which I have very little confidence...

 

[GN+]

https://www.angus.org/Nce/Accuracy.aspx

Pretty interesting table from the angus association that explains the possible deviation from EPD's at different accuracies

 

[Midtenn]

https://www.angus.org/Nce/Accuracy.aspx

Pretty interesting table from the angus association that explains the possible deviation from EPD's at different accuracies

Thanks for showing that. It reminded me that one third of the time, epd numbers can mean absolutely nothing, regardless of accuracy levels.

 

[Son of Butch]

A top 10% bull is still a top 10% bull epds are for comparing individuals to each other or vs breed average use the
% ranking. $W and $B are also affected by the drop in beef prices vs year ago or whenever your bull book was published.

Incorrect statement you put there. The top 10% milk bull I mentioned "VAR generation"' , is no longer a top 10% bull. I'm not talking about dollar values at all. A pound of milk weighs the same every year ....a pound.
I would have never considered using this bull last spring, but now he's at the top of my list, a list in which I have very little confidence...

Of course individual bulls will rise and fall each year as more information is gathered until they reach the unattainable 100% accurate. VAR Generation never was a top 10% milk bull to 100% certainty, in example he was rated a top 10% milk bull to the degree of 50% certainty (maybe he is maybe he isn't) until more information became available proving that he is not and fell. It applies to either pounds or $ values.

+ $100 Beef looks great... until you realize $110 is breed average and $100 is actually 13% below breed average
so if your cows are breed average you are actually regressing genetically using less than a $110 sire.

My point is when using epds use percentile ranking and accuracy.
When using either a pound or $ ranking you better know it's rank vs breed average or you'll be making decisions
in the dark.

 

[Chocolate Cow]

If you are selecting a high $Beef bull, you are selecting towards a terminal sire. From the Angus Association: Beef Value ($B), an index value expressed in dollars per head, is the expected average difference in future progeny performance for postweaning and carcass value compared to progeny of other sires. $Feedlot, $Grid, and $Beef Values incorporate available carcass EPDs, converted into economic terms, incorporating industry-relevant components for feedlot performance and carcass merit.

 

[boondocks]

If you are selecting a high $Beef bull, you are selecting towards a terminal sire. From the Angus Association: Beef Value ($B), an index value expressed in dollars per head, is the expected average difference in future progeny performance for postweaning and carcass value compared to progeny of other sires. $Feedlot, $Grid, and $Beef Values incorporate available carcass EPDs, converted into economic terms, incorporating industry-relevant components for feedlot performance and carcass merit.

Can you explain this a little bit more?

 

[Son of Butch]

If you are selecting a high $Beef bull, you are selecting towards a terminal sire.
$Feedlot, $Grid, and $Beef Values incorporate available carcass EPDs, converted into economic terms, incorporating
industry-relevant components for feedlot performance and carcass merit.

Can you explain this a little bit more?

Chocolate Cow is pointing out that Maternal traits and Feedlot traits are antagonistic.
Whenever you select an extreme outlier of one you are usually giving up a lot of the other.
Breeding for well balanced cattle requires finding the happy medium of above average for both and that is nearly
impossible to achieve using extreme single trait selection.

 

[bse]

I started to use Generation 2 yrs ago, didn't personally like his calves so changed my mind.
Midten my question would be with milk at 20 how much milk do you want in your cattle? Are you just trying to raise that number on particular cows?
I
Numbers changed alot with the 1 step, but they readjust every couple of yrs and change lots of numbers.
Starting in the fall breeding season Im going back to breeding cows, not gonna cater to bull buyers and mess with all the extremes they think they require.