dispersal

[farmwife]

Recent sale results comparison:

ALOT Angus Sale, Mt. Pleasant, TX: bull average $2215 and female average $1849

Texas All-Star Sale, Sherman, TX: bull average $2218 and female average $2535

I tried to locate the averages for the Northeast Texas Hereford sale also held in Mt. Pleasant, but couldn't find them on Herfnet. I'm pretty sure they would be a close comparison as I recall from being at the sale.

 

[TexasBred]

>>I figure $100K could buy her<<

I just hope if you buy her you don't get hit with a 100% Fibonacci Retracement. That would hurt!

LOL

Made me think of all the money I made this year buy and selling naked call and put options of POT (Potash) which is the major fertilizer player in the world. I am glad I didn't get caught in the sell off that is occuring right now (strike talk and oil sell off). She should be getting close to bottoming this cycle. It appears to be trading inline with oil futures. I figure a triple could be made in a short time in the near term future......In the meantime, buy your fertilizer and chemicals now for next year.

OK dude..which is it?? You can't have both at the same time and make any money. All potash stocks are a definite "SELL" right now but not short. Real investors could make 500% in less than a year but not selling short.

 

[Frankie]

Recent sale results comparison:

ALOT Angus Sale, Mt. Pleasant, TX: bull average $2215 and female average $1849

Texas All-Star Sale, Sherman, TX: bull average $2218 and female average $2535

I tried to locate the averages for the Northeast Texas Hereford sale also held in Mt. Pleasant, but couldn't find them on Herfnet. I'm pretty sure they would be a close comparison as I recall from being at the sale.

Sometimes averages can be misleading. The Texas All Star sale only sold a 3 bulls. ALOT sold maybe 75 bulls? And ALOT sold a lot more females in their May female sale than the 54 sold in the All Star sale.

 

[R-E]

I would love to get some of those herford cows and bulls. You can use the bulls on just about any breed of cattle and get calves that will make you some money. In my area people get herford cows and put a brangus bull on them to get baldies and vice versa. I think it works better with brangus cows and a herford bull, but if you can get some excellent herford cows why not use them.

 

[HerefordSire]

>>I figure $100K could buy her<<

I just hope if you buy her you don't get hit with a 100% Fibonacci Retracement. That would hurt!

LOL

Made me think of all the money I made this year buy and selling naked call and put options of POT (Potash) which is the major fertilizer player in the world. I am glad I didn't get caught in the sell off that is occuring right now (strike talk and oil sell off). She should be getting close to bottoming this cycle. It appears to be trading inline with oil futures. I figure a triple could be made in a short time in the near term future......In the meantime, buy your fertilizer and chemicals now for next year.

OK dude..which is it?? You can't have both at the same time and make any money. All potash stocks are a definite "SELL" right now but not short. Real investors could make 500% in less than a year but not selling short.

Potash, used in my context, is the name of a Canadian company traded also on the NYSE and I disagree, now is a time to consider becoming long POT or MOS or other "potash stocks". I will disagree with you again. You can maintain a long and a short position simultaneously and be in the money. That is the main reason they were created. You can research straddles and spreads in the context of security options if you would like. So far this year, I have only held calls or puts at one time and never both at the same time but I do switch sides all the time. I sell short many times but not POT. 500% return of the short side is achievable in less than a year. I am not following you completely as a real investor to me is the same as a normal investor. I am not considered an investor but merely a speculator (trader).

 

[HerefordSire]

It makes me believe Herefords are following legacy Longhorns in its departure of mainstream cattle breeding. Huth, Remitall, Deshazer, and a couple of majors, just this year, are having or have had dispersal sales. Angus and their breeders may have finally pushed Herefords past the equilibrium point. In a prior post, I mentioned Hereford registration numbers falling swiftly. There may be two ways to look at this just like always: positively and negatively. Someone new to the Hereford business, like myself, could really rake in extra positioning provided they had some moo moo backaroo chips to play with.

I think CLEARLY the nation is moving solidly towards an Angus cowherd. I think that DOES simplify things considerably. 15 years ago we were talking about an infinite number of breed combinations. I think now we are more or less forced to accept the idea that we will have a ~50% Angus cowherd. The question is "what will we breed the Angus too?" Charolais seems to be solidifying it's place as the new number two breed. Both of these developments CAN be good developments for Herefords as Herfs cross well too Angus and too Charolais and even work in three way crossbreeding systems with the other two breeds. Brangus seems to be winning the "American breed" wars and the Herf crosses well with them as well. If the Hereford breed can promote itself better and emphasize the roll of Herefords in crossbreeding, the breed can prosper again though I really doubt that we will ever see the vast numbers of straightbred Hereford commercial cows that dominated the ranching business for almost a century.

I think there is more to this than meets the eye. I cannot put my finger on it but maybe some readers can.

Is there a pattern of ex-board members of the AHA having dispersal sales? If there is a pattern, there could be some ugly non-public information on the verge of surfacing.

 

[farmwife]

Recent sale results comparison:

ALOT Angus Sale, Mt. Pleasant, TX: bull average $2215 and female average $1849

Texas All-Star Sale, Sherman, TX: bull average $2218 and female average $2535

I tried to locate the averages for the Northeast Texas Hereford sale also held in Mt. Pleasant, but couldn't find them on Herfnet. I'm pretty sure they would be a close comparison as I recall from being at the sale.

Sometimes averages can be misleading. The Texas All Star sale only sold a 3 bulls. ALOT sold maybe 75 bulls? And ALOT sold a lot more females in their May female sale than the 54 sold in the All Star sale.

Granted, but the fact remains that folks are willing to pay relatively the same price for red and black.

 

[Avalon]

I think the only thing that will really tell us trends will be breed registrations. Because money is so tight the cattle industry will eventually hone in on Just what is profitable. A lot of it will be based on environmental conditions such as grass, climate, proximity to feedyards etc. Even hobby ranchers are culling down to the most economical breed for their area or niche market.

 

[1982vett]

I think there is more to this than meets the eye. I cannot put my finger on it but maybe some readers can.

Is there a pattern of ex-board members of the AHA having dispersal sales? If there is a pattern, there could be some ugly non-public information on the verge of surfacing.

Maybe it is called "smart money", unlike daytrading, these people look at the long term aspects of a business. Maybe they realize that John Q. Public might no be willing to give up his luxuries in order to buy expensive cuts of beef to put on the table to eat. As he starts his whineing about his high grocery bills, more and more imported beef will be crossing the borders to make sure they can continue to spend money on cigarette taxes, booze taxes, gas taxes, communication taxes, and remember all the tax funded stadiums, arenas, conference centers and race tracks that are in line for disposable income before putting a roof or food on his table. Maybe the "smart money people" have concluded that passing thru the increased cost of producing a pound of beef from the rancher to John Q does not appear to provide a good risk/reward senerio. If this is one of the reasons, maybe they are making a wise trade. Especially if they can cut up their huge land holdings into 40 acer ranchetts that will fetch a quarter to half a million each. Seems like a no-brainer. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the capital gains rate returning to the pre-2003 levels in 2011 either.

 

[HerefordSire]

I think there is more to this than meets the eye. I cannot put my finger on it but maybe some readers can.

Is there a pattern of ex-board members of the AHA having dispersal sales? If there is a pattern, there could be some ugly non-public information on the verge of surfacing.

Maybe it is called "smart money", unlike daytrading, these people look at the long term aspects of a business. Maybe they realize that John Q. Public might no be willing to give up his luxuries in order to buy expensive cuts of beef to put on the table to eat. As he starts his whineing about his high grocery bills, more and more imported beef will be crossing the borders to make sure they can continue to spend money on cigarette taxes, booze taxes, gas taxes, communication taxes, and remember all the tax funded stadiums, arenas, conference centers and race tracks that are in line for disposable income before putting a roof or food on his table. Maybe the "smart money people" have concluded that passing thru the increased cost of producing a pound of beef from the rancher to John Q does not appear to provide a good risk/reward senerio. If this is one of the reasons, maybe they are making a wise trade. Especially if they can cut up their huge land holdings into 40 acer ranchetts that will fetch a quarter to half a million each. Seems like a no-brainer. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the capital gains rate returning to the pre-2003 levels in 2011 either.

Smart Money?

It took Huth, Remitall, Deshazer, and several majors, that had dispersals just this year alone, years to build a high quality brand name. A name when I hear or see it, lets me know it is a quality product. Business cycles go up and down and sometimes generate fractals. Smart money buys low and sells high and is in timing with business cycles. If this is smart money and they are truly exiting, surely they think prices will drop for quite some time. After all, think what building a brand name like Remitall took?

 

[Third Row]

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the capital gains rate returning to the pre-2003 levels in 2011 either.

Do you mean estate tax?

 

[Red Bull Breeder]

There is going to be alot of change in the cattle industry in the next few years. Mostly cattle producers better figure out what will make them money and quite trying to please everybody else.

 

[1982vett]

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the capital gains rate returning to the pre-2003 levels in 2011 either.

Do you mean estate tax?

No, Capital gains will reset to pre 2003 levels just like the estate taxes will.

 

[Third Row]

Oh, I don't know why I thought it was always 15%.

 

[1848]

Thanks for the interesting information!

It makes me believe Herefords are following legacy Longhorns in its departure of mainstream cattle breeding. Huth, Remitall, Deshazer, and a couple of majors, just this year, are having or have had dispersal sales. Angus and their breeders may have finally pushed Herefords past the equilibrium point. In a prior post, I mentioned Hereford registration numbers falling swiftly. There may be two ways to look at this just like always: positively and negatively. Someone new to the Hereford business, like myself, could really rake in extra positioning provided they had some moo moo backaroo chips to play with.

I wrote a couple of email letters to Deshazer and Remitall so I could potentially buy some of their fine cattle. All of the emails I sent were ignored. I wonder if ignoring important emails has anything to do with existing their choice of business. I know I wanted to invest about 1/4 million dollars into cattle and they ignored me.

they probably get that all the time.

HS probably mentioned the Golden Ratio or Fibonacci numbers in his e-mails to them and they needed to do further research into his "Final Frontier" hypotheses before replying. :banana:

My "one-liner" contribution! :lol:

George

hahahahah! (mine)

 

[S&amp;S Farms]

Huth sold all but his heifer crop of that year of his dispersal. His kids are going to college and he just down sized. The same with Red Hills kept 100 heifers and 300 eggs inthe tank.

If you read Hanks letter it seems that Tim may be purchasing the ranch or is at least staying on to manage it. Some of these guys got into the business after making their money in other avenues. They dont have children to take it over and they dont want to do it until it is time for a dirt nap.


Jeff

 

[HerefordSire]

HS probably mentioned the Golden Ratio or Fibonacci numbers in his e-mails to them and they needed to do further research into his "Final Frontier" hypotheses before replying. :banana:

My "one-liner" contribution! :lol:





hahahahah! (mine)




Final Frontier = to breed where no man has gone before....to think outside of the box where many become slaves....understanding genetic outliers and what outlier limits acually are....to beome the Michael Phelps of breeding....to breed 3008 with his daughters for that one combination...to go where no man has gone before....

 

[1848]

a.... yeah, at warp speed, flying by the seat of your pants, while still at the mercy of technology and helpless at speeding up your own time space continuum.

HS probably mentioned the Golden Ratio or Fibonacci numbers in his e-mails to them and they needed to do further research into his "Final Frontier" hypotheses before replying. :banana:

My "one-liner" contribution! :lol:





hahahahah! (mine)




Final Frontier = to breed where no man has gone before....to think outside of the box where many become slaves....understanding genetic outliers and what outlier limits acually are....to beome the Michael Phelps of breeding....to breed 3008 with his daughters for that one combination...to go where no man has gone before....

 

[HerefordSire]

a.... yeah, at warp speed, flying by the seat of your pants, while still at the mercy of technology and helpless at speeding up your own time space continuum.

Spock, have Scotty beam 1848 up so I can speak with him/her face to face.

 

[1848]

Scotty's answer to Spock:

Hey spike! Tell the #!&$@! Captain to pick him up on earth.........he said he'll walk on.

a.... yeah, at warp speed, flying by the seat of your pants, while still at the mercy of technology and helpless at speeding up your own time space continuum.

Spock, have Scotty beam 1848 up so I can speak with him/her face to face.