Decoding their jiberish

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Jogeephus

Jogeephus

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Joined
Jul 17, 2006
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South Georgia
Been watching the weather closely lately with hay doings and have seen them miss the forecasts terribly. Also have seen them change their low forecast of rain to 60% chance within the same day. It baffles me trying to figure out whether to cut or not to cut hay.

This week I listened to a program on radio where they were drilling a forecaster as to just what do they mean with these forecasts and his explanation was far from what I expected. According to the weather guru a 30% chance of rain means that within the forecast area 30% of the area will get 1/10th of an inch or more. 60% means 60% of the forecast area will get 1/10th of an inch or more. This really isn't that useful to me. He also said there is some talk of changing how they forecast weather to something more like there will be a high chance of a frog strangler or something on those lines. This I think would be better. I mean if there is going to be a good chance of a light drizzle I'd like to know that because I can relate to that and can work around it. A frog strangler is something totally different.
 
They nailed it didn't they!

I liked the idea of putting something more descriptive in their report than what they do so I hope they follow through on this. I think a 50% chance of rain when you have a high sitting on you is much different than a 50% when you are in the low pressure zone.

I cut some of the best hay I've cut in years Saturday. It was so lush it was almost blue in color. When cutting it I could taste the sugar in the air. Its thick on the ground and will require at least 2 full days to dry if teddered. I hope I've deciphered their forecast properly. There was a 40% then a 60% and now a 50% chance of rain the day it should be bailed but after that I have 2 days of hot weather with minimal chances of rain till it jumps to 60% again. The 60% we've had lately has only brought scattered showers with non appreciable amounts. I"m in a high pressure area now and hope it holds. If it just misses me Monday I will have some wonderful hay but its just a crap shoot.
 
I have found old pilots to be far better at predicting short term weather (12-24hrs). Lives depend on it. Find a smallish general aviation airport near you, preferably one with a cafe. Stop in for breakfast on a Saturday morning. You might meet your next best resource.

I flew to Saint Louis with a 30 something year old, low time pilot. We left Wednesday morning. I called the older pilot (my customer in Saint Louis) to let him know we were on our way. He told me "you'll make it here alright, but you won't make it back home today".
He was right, but the forecast did not say anything about severe weather, and my pilot looked at the same weather models I did. We made it as far as Harrison AR and had to drop from 10,000 to land in less than 5 minutes. We put the plane in a hangar there. The electric power went out soon after, and we were stuck the night. Old pilot was right.
Now I don't believe pilots are any better at forecasting days out than the weather liars, but if you want to know what time the fog will lift tomorrow, or when the pop-ups will start forming, call your local old pilot
 

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