Corn futures?

[kenny thomas]

What happened in the corn market to make the prices jump so much today? Sure is hurting the feeder prices.

 

[Angus Cowman]

don't know what happened but they sure did
maybe they heard you were making too much money on them calves KT

 

[bannedagain]

155.8 That was down almost 4% from last time.

 

[kenny thomas]

Bad thing is I was going to sell about 20 next Monday. Already have the orders for part of them. Most of them weighing over 700 so they will have to be weaned soon. Bet I get a call tomorrow telling me to lower the bid next week.
Good thing the lot is empty. Might just buy more and make a load and keep them a few more weeks.

 

[kenny thomas]

Every time the government report comes out the numbers are way different.

 

[bannedagain]

The corn crop isn't there. It is what it is.

 

[john250]

You might say the USDA numbers "beat the point spread". The "analysts" who do their own yield surveys had the crop around 160. Down from USDA last month but higher than USDA this month. It sucks if you have calves to sell.

 

[kenny thomas]

I agree the crop probably is just not there. The hard part is the government reports "found" 300 million bushels a couple of weeks ago. Price up and down so fast sure makes it hard to plan. We don't have the land to grow our own corn, too hilly, so this price jump really hurts.

 

[bannedagain]

I agree the crop probably is just not there. The hard part is the government reports "found" 300 million bushels a couple of weeks ago. Price up and down so fast sure makes it hard to plan. We don't have the land to grow our own corn, too hilly, so this price jump really hurts.

You don't need to grow the corn to set your input costs for your cattle.

 

[kenny thomas]

My feed price is locked in so the input is not the problem for me. For some of the people I buy for it is.
Selling price on the calves is a problem for all of us.
Maybe the grain farmers can at least make a few bucks. With 155.8 they are not going to get rich either.

 

[bannedagain]

well 155.8 is an average. Taking into considertion I have 1740 acres of corn with a 231 APH, someone else has 1740 acres with a 80.6 APH. I'm not sure where these acres are at, not anywhere in this area. The numbers are still not proven for this year I do think however the corn price shall contine to rise to around $5.10. Just a guess.

 

[kenny thomas]

I hope your guess is close. With futures today at 5.28 and some months at 5.45 is will put a scare into the calf market.

 

[Douglas]

Any of you guys used cattle futures/options or the USDA risk program to minimize your downside risk with calves?

 

[bannedagain]

Any of you guys used cattle futures/options or the USDA risk program to minimize your downside risk with calves?

I use them for the upside risk on corn and calves and the downside risk for fats. Essentially I use them for everything.

 

[TexasBred]

I hope your guess is close. With futures today at 5.28 and some months at 5.45 is will put a scare into the calf market.

Haven't checked in a while but what is the basis now? About a week ago it was something like $.67 under the board. Some of the big swings have just been profit taking by the speculators.

 

[jedstivers]

I hope your guess is close. With futures today at 5.28 and some months at 5.45 is will put a scare into the calf market.

Haven't checked in a while but what is the basis now? About a week ago it was something like $.67 under the board. Some of the big swings have just been profit taking by the speculators.

Basis here is .10 under now, 0 Jan del. off march an .15 under next Sept.

 

[TexasBred]

I hope your guess is close. With futures today at 5.28 and some months at 5.45 is will put a scare into the calf market.

Haven't checked in a while but what is the basis now? About a week ago it was something like $.67 under the board. Some of the big swings have just been profit taking by the speculators.

Basis here is .10 under now, 0 Jan del. off march an .15 under next Sept.

doesn't make sense.

 

[Texas PaPaw]

I hope your guess is close. With futures today at 5.28 and some months at 5.45 is will put a scare into the calf market.

Haven't checked in a while but what is the basis now? About a week ago it was something like $.67 under the board. Some of the big swings have just been profit taking by the speculators.

On Thursday in the central TX panhandle the elevator I deal with was Dec +.10/bu basis. Because it is a very grain deficit area it has some of the best seller basis in the country. Didn't talk to them yesterday, but wouldn't be too surprised if the basis wasn't lowered. Have heard of several who expect it to be up the limit again on the Sunday night/Monday trade.

On Thursday bought 625-650# bull calves $2 lower than on Tuesday. Light calves held up better.

With these high grain prices, it will be hard for these yearling prices to hold up.

 

[Howdyjabo]

Yearlings will hold for now-- the money lenders want fast turnovers or no money for most people. That will keep the 8 wts in demand as there is a limited supply of them.

 

[TexasBred]

Yearlings will hold for now-- the money lenders want fast turnovers or no money for most people. That will keep the 8 wts in demand as there is a limited supply of them.

Corn up $.45 overnight....Dec. headed for $6.00 bushel.