cattle numbers

[ALACOWMAN]

with the low numbers and high prices,, i hear guys here. talking about selling out completely.. which would send the numbers even lower... average joe cattleman cant afford replacements at the cost.. so the ones that want in, cant get in... and the ones that could stay in, are getting out. i just cant see these prices lasting even with low numbers or we are gonna be right up there with seafood ... and chicken will rule as the common mans meat ....

 

[Douglas]

At some point consumer will not pay higher and higher prices. Just like corn. At high prices for several years, the users of corn find alternatives. Many believe the decline in corn prices recently has been a result of demand destruction. Consumers will switch to pork and chicken at some point. Also exports have a lot to due with our meat prices. A rising dollar would cut export a lot and prices could come way down very fast. I don't know if that will happen, but all these uncertanities make cattle guys reluctant to expand.

 

[ALACOWMAN]

its happening at a bad time,, if this country were rolling again, i wouldnt be concerned as much. to many folks stuggling to keep food on the table, let alone high dollar meat

 

[Isomade]

I'll sleep naked in a pile of leaves before I give up beef. Man can't live on chicken.

 

[SRBeef]

The cattle market differs from pork and chicken in that it takes much longer to make any significant change in herd size. Beef supplies just don't increase very quickly. And if someone does increase his herd size by retaining heifers there is the near term loss of income at good prices. I just don't see the US cattle numbers increasing dramatically any time soon. With the drought and all cattle numbers go down a lot faster than they go up.

Folks can make an instant decision to sell but to replace those takes a lot longer if done by building internally or very expensive if looking to purchase replacements.

And even in a tough economy, folks will still buy hamburger. We have also been moving to a wider spread in incomes in the US over the last decade or so. Yes many folks are having a tough time. But there is also a lot of money in the economy and the folks with the money will be buying quality beef. jmho.

Jim

 

[bigbull338]

cowmen you talk of all the people that are selling out an quiting.an that cuts the cow an feeder calf #s in 2 ways.1.with the high cull cow price over half of a herd will go to slaughter.2.that means half as meny calves going to the feedlot in the next year.1.the topend cows will go back to the farm.2.once again half as meny calves going to the feedlots.plus as said alot of people will buy hamberger meat.plus you have berger king an macdonalds selling alot of bergers on the $1 menue.

 

[Aaron]

We are going through a massive change. I agree a lot of the older producers (60+) are looking at getting out before prices drop again and the few young producers around are getting as big as they can, as fast as they can. Just talked to a producer about 30 years old who bought another full section of land and another 30 heifers this year, giving him a herd of about 75 cows. So in one year, he spent over 400k of bank money. His day job (paper mill) is in jeopardy right now, so the long-term outlook is unknown. I don't have the off-farm job to expand and don't have the balls to take on any amount of debt, so my expansion is continual, but smaller.

Other than hamburger, I think most people are backing off beef. A prime rib can be upwards of $50 here and a good roast is at least $35. It is the export demand from overseas that will keep North American prices up.

Even with expansion, if 50 young producers increase their herds by 30 cows, it won't make up for the 100 older producers who disperse their 30-50 cow herds. :cowboy:

 

[bigbull338]

arron over half of the herds that you talk about will go to slughter.so you take 50 producers buying 50 cows that puts the # at 2500 cows.thats a pretty stable # of the 4000hd.

 

[Aaron]

arron over half of the herds that you talk about will go to slughter.so you take 50 producers buying 50 cows that puts the # at 2500 cows.thats a pretty stable # of the 4000hd.

Stable, perhaps. But in no way a full-blown expansion.

 

[xbred]

I am strongly considering selling out..at the prices offered..i can't see passing it up...get back in stocker operation with someone else's money...

 

[AllForage]

its happening at a bad time,, if this country were rolling again, i wouldnt be concerned as much. to many folks stuggling to keep food on the table, let alone high dollar meat

When I hear about folks turning in their iphones and thrift stores selling out of clothes I will get more worried.

 

[houstoncutter]

Over the many years, I have gotten in and out of the cattle biz. Most times I was playing the cattle cycle. The first time I got out due to bangs, so that one doesnt count. This is the first time that I am seriously not considering getting back in. At this point, imputs are just too high to risk my capital. I figure its just a short time before our markets are flooded with imported beef.

 

[ALACOWMAN]

im in no position to really get out, and be able to get back in later.... unless the prices dropped to the point where i hope they dont ,,, plus if i get out i might find out, theres life after cattle :cowboy: ... right now i feel like their gold, going up every day... and even to sell at a higher price now... wouldnt be waiting for the big payoff..

 

[bigbull338]

im in no position to really get out, and be able to get back in later.... unless the prices dropped to the point where i hope they dont ,,, plus if i get out i might find out, theres life after cattle :cowboy: ... right now i feel like their gold, going up every day... and even to sell at a higher price now... wouldnt be waiting for the big payoff..

yeah i found out what there was without owning cattle once depession.an that was no fun.ive owned cattle off an on since i was 15.an never had a day when there wasnt cattle on this place by family.then in 2007 i decided to get back in cattle till the day i die.

 

[backhoeboogie]

im in no position to really get out, and be able to get back in later.... unless the prices dropped to the point where i hope they dont ,,, plus if i get out i might find out, theres life after cattle :cowboy: ... right now i feel like their gold, going up every day... and even to sell at a higher price now... wouldnt be waiting for the big payoff..

I am at a little less than 1/2 from a year ago. From my perspective, that puts me at a break even operation considering fixed lease and fertilizer costs. But with higher prices, break even should not be a factor. Make sense? If these prices hold, I'll make money, stock pile hay, and expand a little at a time.

 

[ALACOWMAN]

i hope you Texans that held on, get a break this year ..looks like were gonna get our monthly 10+ inchs of rain.. 6 of them last week. the ground is like stepping on rotten apples

 

[TexasBred]

im in no position to really get out, and be able to get back in later.... unless the prices dropped to the point where i hope they dont ,,, plus if i get out i might find out, theres life after cattle :cowboy: ... right now i feel like their gold, going up every day... and even to sell at a higher price now... wouldnt be waiting for the big payoff..

When the prices are too high to get back in that's when you take time to fix up everything you been patching for years, relax a little bit more and wait for the prices to come down. If they do, get back in. If they don't....just buy another round.

 

[ALACOWMAN]

champaign taste..... on a beer budget :cowboy:

 

[backhoeboogie]

champaign taste..... on a beer budget :cowboy:

And wore Out equipment wearing out this body.

 

[Jake]

I am honestly hoping that some folks around us decide to cash in and open up some pasture. The opportunity cost is our main cost against our heifers but I am more than willing to overlook it and continue expansion. We may be on a high cycle but my brother and I are young enough to ride this bucking beast out and take advantage of opportunities that may arise.