Brazil

[HDRider]

... the recent USDA announcement regarding the new trade status with Brazil. That discussion noted that Brazil will be operating under the Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) outside of country-specific agreements such as we have with Canada and Mexico. As such, Brazilian imports will fall under a quota limit shared with other countries of 64.8 million tons. And under that quota system, access to U.S. markets is on a first-come, first-served basis for countries lacking a specific agreement with the U.S.

Based on the moving average, year-over-year, monthly imports are down nearly 27 million pounds (9%) versus this same time last year. Meanwhile, the same comparison indicates exports are down only 13.8 million pounds (7%) versus 2015. Viewed from the broader perspective, if the total quota under which Brazil will ship product was filled on a monthly basis, it would represent only about 4% of total imports (TRQ = 10.8 million pounds vs. total imports averaging 260 million pounds).

Therefore, quantitatively speaking, the direct economic effect of additional supply from Brazil will likely be limited even at the highest rate of quota fulfillment. The bigger concern comes from a qualitative standpoint.

That is, if there were ever a shortfall in inspection and/or an opening for foot and mouth disease infection in the U.S., the fallout would be catastrophic from any number of perspectives including potential for stop-movement orders, breakdown of commerce continuity and loss of international markets – not to mention potential impact on the dairy industry. The quantitative versus qualitative perspective represent two very different concerns.

http://beefmagazine.com/beef-exports/wh ... a9e2d6b3ee

 

[HDRider]

The weekly weighted Five Area average cash steer price, which includes Texas, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas and Iowa, was 57 cents lower at $118.35, compared with $118.92 the previous week.

The cash dressed steer price was $186.91, 91 cents lower compared with 187.82 the previous week. The Five Area total cash steer and heifer volume was 98,000 head, compared with 102,000 the previous week.

http://beefmagazine.com/cattle-markets/ ... teady-weak

 

[Margonme]

Valuable information. Well presented!

Brings into question the over emphasis the Brazil imports have had on market prices. University of Kentucky news I follow says it is more to do with the value of the dollar.

 

[HDRider]

Valuable information. Well presented!

Brings into question the over emphasis the Brazil imports have had on market prices. University of Kentucky news I follow says it is more to do with the value of the dollar.

I was thinking the same thing.

We have done everything we can (mostly unintentional it seems) to bring down the value of the dollar,and yet it is still stronger than most currencies, and a mill stone around our neck regarding international trade.

 

[arkie1]

I'm not smart enough to understand all the import, outport, inboard, outboard stuff. I usually watch US Farm report every weekend at least for a few minutes. Earlier this year and late last year they were all very worried about Brazil and how they had removed quotas it seems and were able to grow beans year round. Last I heard there was no longer a major threat to US farmers from Brazil due to all the civil unrest and government corruption. Personally I wouldn't put too much worry into a third world country. Sure you should keep an eye on it but you never know what could happen. Disease outbreak, civil war, government could fall apart, anything like that can upset the analyst's predictions real quick.

 

[redcowsrule33]

"That is, if there were ever a shortfall in inspection and/or an opening for foot and mouth disease infection in the U.S., the fallout would be catastrophic"

My primary concern right there.