Beef market trends?

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Stocker Steve

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Locally light calves too small to go to grass had dropped at least $.20 in the last month, and then the feeder market roared back this week with about an $.08 gain.
I have having an adult beverage last night during the Twins highlights :shock: and started to dream a bit about the "hard culling" recommended here.

Where to you see the cull cow market going the next couple months?
 
Holding steady- may creep up if meat in the stores goes up in price. They should go up in stores, but if they feel resistance from customers the demand might drop which would balance out the increasing shortage. Wild card is exports, they seem to have more money and want meat.

We are actually at a point where it is worthwhile to feed culls and push them into heavy yields.
I would not sell anything that will produce a decent calf(if I had grass). Their prices are going to be thru the roof come spring. And the kill market will still be there then.

I am expecting a wild ride this year with more record breaking prices all the way around(there might be a short term over reaction to some bad news- but it won't last long). Problem is I think feed/fuel costs are going to go right with it and suck the extra profit away.
Right now grass and cow/calf-- is where the money is at.Time to go spend some money and fertilize the pastures. Unless you have good land then it should be cropped :)
 
I have a couple "improved pastures" that need to be renovated, so I am looking at culling a few before going with one year of corn for the N credit, grazing the stalks, and then reseeding. I also can retain 2 weanling heifers for < cost of feeding one cow and have this option to build numbers back.

The interesting thing is we have more MT pastures locally than I can remember. A few dispersed their herds to focus on ethanol corn :( , and two recently divorced and subdivided the farm, and I think one did not have the cash to buy back grass cattle this spring. I offered to cross fence one place and rent it but the owner was not able to make a decision and move on. Apparently no one wants to run cattle when the price is high. :shock:
 
Read a complex university NPV study last night. Their conclusion was that you could cull older cows, and then buy back heifers if they were less than $1300. I did some Bud Williams cowboy math this spring and came up with the same general result, but size does matter. ;-)
 

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