Angus sale Saturated market?

[JHH]

I posted this in the cattle sales but didnt get any takers.

Went to a registered angus sale last night. This guy has a sale every spring and sells at least 45 bulls sometimes more. He has been doing this since at least 05 but maybe longer. Anyway in 05 his top selling bull was 7000.00 in 06 I think he got 10,000. for one, last year I think one brought 7000.00. This year top selling bull was 3500.00. So is the economy playing a role here or is it just an angus saturated market or just a bad night?

I thought the bulls looked good (fat but good) and maybe better than in the past. He also sold some commercial cows and they sold really good. 1450.00 to 1200.00 ea.Low was 1200.00
He sold three bulls that he advertised as all natural grass fed no protein and blue stem hay only fed and the top one was 1300.00 and the other two were 1100.00 These bulls were not fat they were lean and ready to work but not skinny.

Thought on this? or just a saturated market. He has to compete with sydenstrickers so this may have the market saturated.

 

[tom4018]

I have been to a couple sales around here, one was his first sale. The other has been having sales for 15 years, both of them prices were real good. Most of these bulls were in the $2000 - $2500 range, they average better than some years have for the same quality bull.

 

[Frankie]

I posted this in the cattle sales but didnt get any takers.

Went to a registered angus sale last night. This guy has a sale every spring and sells at least 45 bulls sometimes more. He has been doing this since at least 05 but maybe longer. Anyway in 05 his top selling bull was 7000.00 in 06 I think he got 10,000. for one, last year I think one brought 7000.00. This year top selling bull was 3500.00. So is the economy playing a role here or is it just an angus saturated market or just a bad night?

I thought the bulls looked good (fat but good) and maybe better than in the past. He also sold some commercial cows and they sold really good. 1450.00 to 1200.00 ea.Low was 1200.00
He sold three bulls that he advertised as all natural grass fed no protein and blue stem hay only fed and the top one was 1300.00 and the other two were 1100.00 These bulls were not fat they were lean and ready to work but not skinny.

Thought on this? or just a saturated market. He has to compete with sydenstrickers so this may have the market saturated.

Probably all of the above. Beef demand is down, but so is the size of the nation's cow herd. It seems that there's someone raising registered Angus on every corner. There are something like 20 Angus bull sales in the state of Oklahoma just during the month of March. Sydenstricker isn't that much of a drive from Oklahoma. Neither is Gardiners.

Interesting about the price on grass fed bulls. How old were they compared to his other bulls?

 

[VanC]

Is there any evidence that the breed's recent problems with genetic defects is effecting the demand?

 

[SRBeef]

I know several folks that have gotten out of Angus completely. Not sure of exact reasons. My sense is that it is a combination of the genetic problems and the edge wearing off of this "angus beef is better" advertising campaign. At some point the truth comes out that the hide color, the basis of much of the "angus beef", has nothing at all to do with beef quality. jmho. jim

 

[WichitaLineMan]

Dang, SR you just went and started another fight!

 

[Frankie]

Is there any evidence that the breed's recent problems with genetic defects is effecting the demand?

Watching some sales on RFDTV, the identified "carrier" bulls seemed to sell about as well as other bulls. So I don't think so. A couple of years ago Randy Blach from CattleFax told the Gelbvieh board of directors that, as the national cow herd shrinks, we'll need 50,000 fewer bulls. Recently, I saw another CattleFax estimate of needing 77,000 fewer bulls. That's lots of bulls.

http://www.gelbvieh.org/gelbvieh_world/ ... e_0708.pdf

 

[DOC HARRIS]

SR-

" . . . . . ;-) Hey, Uh . . Guys . . . Uh. . . :devil2: Uh . . . Knock this cow chip off my shoulder! :roll: . . :???: :tiphat: :wave: Have a good day!! :banana:

(By the Way - as Frankie said - it is a combination of all those things). Plus - very few cattlemen are watching the future predictions relating to what the beef demand is going to be in a couple of years! If they had been reading the right information and thinking about their BU$INE$$ future, they would be taking advantage of the current low seedstock opportunities, and preparing for the increased demand which WILL occur in a couple of years! :???:

DOC HARRIS

 

[alexfarms]

SR-

" . . . . . ;-) Hey, Uh . . Guys . . . Uh. . . :devil2: Uh . . . Knock this cow chip off my shoulder! :roll: . . :???: :tiphat: :wave: Have a good day!! :banana:

(By the Way - as Frankie said - it is a combination of all those things). Plus - very few cattlemen are watching the future predictions relating to what the beef demand is going to be in a couple of years! If they had been reading the right information and thinking about their BU$INE$$ future, they would be taking advantage of the current low seedstock opportunities, and preparing for the increased demand which WILL occur in a couple of years! :???:

DOC HARRIS

I sure hope you're right about that "demand" thing you were talking about.

 

[DOC HARRIS]

Let's consider this situation realistically. The National Cow Herd has been thinned out because of age, economy, lowered demand from overseas, and other reasons. Farmers and ranchers have 'thinned' out (culled) their older and less productive breeding cows in order to reduce their costs. Rightly so! In two or three more years, that will be even more prevalent than now. More people are being born than are dying, they are living longer, baby-boomers are retiring and are going to be traveling more and eating out more, and the overseas demand for beef will continue to escalate. Consequently, the demand for GOOD beef products will increase. From whence is this beef supply going to come? From North American farmers and ranchers who have had the foresight to take advantage of the lower prices of seedstock today, and have increased their cow herd to produce the demand. It takes six to ten years to build up a breeding herd to the point where the producer KNOWS what his cattle will produce! If you wait until the demand is hitting you in the face - it will cost you lost income! The economy will improve. It always has - it always will! The skeptics will lose. The optimists will PROFIT.

My Motto is: "Have Faith, Confidence and Belief in your Products, Services and Ideas"!

Take it step by step. But - DO IT NOW!

DOC HARRIS

 

[mwj]

Doc I always thought that ''roll high and sleep in the street's'' was the motto of choice :cowboy:

 

[alexfarms]

Let's consider this situation realistically. The National Cow Herd has been thinned out because of age, economy, lowered demand from overseas, and other reasons. Farmers and ranchers have 'thinned' out (culled) their older and less productive breeding cows in order to reduce their costs. Rightly so! In two or three more years, that will be even more prevalent than now. More people are being born than are dying, they are living longer, baby-boomers are retiring and are going to be traveling more and eating out more, and the overseas demand for beef will continue to escalate. Consequently, the demand for GOOD beef products will increase. From whence is this beef supply going to come? From North American farmers and ranchers who have had the foresight to take advantage of the lower prices of seedstock today, and have increased their cow herd to produce the demand. It takes six to ten years to build up a breeding herd to the point where the producer KNOWS what his cattle will produce! If you wait until the demand is hitting you in the face - it will cost you lost income! The economy will improve. It always has - it always will! The skeptics will lose. The optimists will PROFIT.

My Motto is: "Have Faith, Confidence and Belief in your Products, Services and Ideas"!

Take it step by step. But - DO IT NOW!

DOC HARRIS

I am a pretty optimistic person....although I am often accused of the opposite. I ran accross this article today: http://www.ksallink.com/?cmd=displaysto ... ormat=html
http://www.billhelmingconsulting.com/book.php

 

[Brandonm22]

I am a contrarian to Doc's view. Yes the Boomers are rapidly approaching retirement; BUT stocks were flat over the course of the decade that just ended and with the recent economic chaos a lot of high earning older workers got pushed off the cliff at a lot of companies. the Boomers have made a killing over their lifetimes every time they swapped a house, now their house is worth ~10-40% less than it was just 4-5 years ago. Their IRAs are a lot smaller than what their brokers were promising they would be 10-20 years ago. Manufacturing jobs went overseas and the heavy regulatory burden means the kind of economic growth we have seen since WWII is likely a thing of the past. More and more of the nation's babies are being born to unwed Mothers and in broken homes. Most of those kids live near or below the poverty line. The sort of household disposable income that we have become accustomed too is increasingly not part of those kids' daily existence. Even where economics is not bleak, time is often limited. Today's kids are a whole lot more likely to be fed microwavable chicken nuggets than they are pot roasts. The theory that household dispoable income is going to steadily increase so that they can enjoy more steak nights I find doubtful. Obviously, we are going to see an economic recovery (and an increase in beef prices); but I think it is really going to be very weak, very limited, not very broad, and not very long lasting.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Same here:

Hard to sell angus bulls, but good demand for heifers. You can buy some good bulls from not so well know seedstock guys for steer price.

I think there are less (small cow/calf) bull users, and more AI...

 

[bse]

ive been to sales all across TN this year i think the averages are up compared to last year on good angus bulls A.I. seems to play a part and a good enhancement program, but i dont see to many 5 to 7 thousand dollar bulls around here about 2500 dollar average. good cow calf pairs seem to be doing well also this year.

 

[JHH]

I posted this in the cattle sales but didnt get any takers.

Went to a registered angus sale last night. This guy has a sale every spring and sells at least 45 bulls sometimes more. He has been doing this since at least 05 but maybe longer. Anyway in 05 his top selling bull was 7000.00 in 06 I think he got 10,000. for one, last year I think one brought 7000.00. This year top selling bull was 3500.00. So is the economy playing a role here or is it just an angus saturated market or just a bad night?

I thought the bulls looked good (fat but good) and maybe better than in the past. He also sold some commercial cows and they sold really good. 1450.00 to 1200.00 ea.Low was 1200.00
He sold three bulls that he advertised as all natural grass fed no protein and blue stem hay only fed and the top one was 1300.00 and the other two were 1100.00 These bulls were not fat they were lean and ready to work but not skinny.

Thought on this? or just a saturated market. He has to compete with sydenstrickers so this may have the market saturated.

Probably all of the above. Beef demand is down, but so is the size of the nation's cow herd. It seems that there's someone raising registered Angus on every corner. There are something like 20 Angus bull sales in the state of Oklahoma just during the month of March. Sydenstricker isn't that much of a drive from Oklahoma. Neither is Gardiners.

Interesting about the price on grass fed bulls. How old were they compared to his other bulls?[/quote]


Yes they were older. I think they were 2 yr olds. Other bulls were 15 to 18 month olds

 

[BRG]

I think Doc is correct. The world population is growing by leaps and bounds and they all need to eat. Sure most won't eat high quality beef, but lots of the will eat some beef, poor, average, or good beef, doesn't matter, as long as they eat some, and I believe they will. Plus the cow numbers are extremely low, which will help the most. I don't see it getting real good until the world economy is back on track, but once it is, look out!!!

 

[alacattleman]

I think Doc is correct. The world population is growing by leaps and bounds and they all need to eat. Sure most won't eat high quality beef, but lots of the will eat some beef, poor, average, or good beef, doesn't matter, as long as they eat some, and I believe they will. Plus the cow numbers are extremely low, which will help the most. I don't see it getting real good until the world economy is back on track, but once it is, look out!!!

nothing like a good dose of reality to set things in order,, just like the car business its a buyers market

 

[JHH]

I am a contrarian to Doc's view. Yes the Boomers are rapidly approaching retirement; BUT stocks were flat over the course of the decade that just ended and with the recent economic chaos a lot of high earning older workers got pushed off the cliff at a lot of companies. the Boomers have made a killing over their lifetimes every time they swapped a house, now their house is worth ~10-40% less than it was just 4-5 years ago. Their IRAs are a lot smaller than what their brokers were promising they would be 10-20 years ago. Manufacturing jobs went overseas and the heavy regulatory burden means the kind of economic growth we have seen since WWII is likely a thing of the past. More and more of the nation's babies are being born to unwed Mothers and in broken homes. Most of those kids live near or below the poverty line. The sort of household disposable income that we have become accustomed too is increasingly not part of those kids' daily existence. Even where economics is not bleak, time is often limited. Today's kids are a whole lot more likely to be fed microwavable chicken nuggets than they are pot roasts. The theory that household dispoable income is going to steadily increase so that they can enjoy more steak nights I find doubtful. Obviously, we are going to see an economic recovery (and an increase in beef prices); but I think it is really going to be very weak, very limited, not very broad, and not very long lasting.

You got that right. What has happened to the kids? I think they are mostly just plain lazy.

 

[BSKDixie]

Wow quite the doom and gloom group here holy cow!

A. Demand for Angus is down a little (calm down doesn't mean end of the world is coming) because of their genetic defects fiasco (Association had lowest registration levels in quite some time last year)
B. Like every other person has said on this thread the economy has been down, its pretty simple
C. Easy on the young people are the death of the world angle you're playing there (Brandonm22 and JHH), every generation before every other generation has said the the next generation is lazy, I'm pretty sure each era has their pros and cons, and I would play the high and mighty card very carefully and perhaps a little bit of support and optimism as opposed to cynicism might help your own outlook on future generations.
D. In an economic downturn, consumers turn to lower priced food sources its pretty cut and dry, chicken and pork are cheaper, steak not so much, hence more consumers have been buying chicken and pork and demand for steaks and higher meat cuts has been down along with most all feeder calf prices

Demand will return, most of the trends occurring right now are pretty simple economics, supply and demand, recession, markets etc. and I believe a recovery is on its way whether its small or large or whatever but understanding those economics is above my pay grade, what I'm saying is a recovery in all sectors of the beef industry is on its way, especially since it is a cyclical industry, so no the sky is not falling, and yes beef demand will return as will demand for high quality genetics