mwj
Well-known member
''Perceived value'' is a strong sales tool!
Actually Cattle Prices Should Be Even Higher
- Thread starter rocfarm
- Start date
Dave
Well-known member
Of course that WINCO we shop at at least 50% of the shoppers there are speaking Spanish. Something tells that they aren't looking for prime beef. I do see beef tongue there for $8.59. Don't see tongue in the meat contour at other stores. They do have about 40 feet of shelve taller than my head that has a huge selection of tortilla shells
Travlr
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- NW Arkansas, W South Dakota, retired in Utah
Tongue generally goes in the offal bin... but they still charge that kind of money for it. It's just like side pork being twice the price of bacon when it's the same thing but not cured.
Took my Mom to Sam's in Knoxville last week. I thought their beef was very nice. Was priced accordingly too. The brisket i held up was right around $150. Two thick cut ribeyes were $60 or $70. Made me feel better about my price.
Dave
Well-known member
I doubt the big guy toss the tongue. It gets skinned and goes into hot dogs etc,
A couple weeks ago I saw brisket for about $8 a pound I don't remember the total dollars. Average cut rib eyes was $15 a pound.
Travlr
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Yeah... But then isn't that what the offal goes in to?
rocfarm
Well-known member
If the U.S. can import almost unlimited amounts of the frozen lean beef, it seems to me that the American rancher should reduce his costs and focus on a premium product. The maximum profitability in this scenario is to get paid a premium price for what you can produce with the lowest inputs possible, IMO.
If most ranchers jumped on board, there’d be little chance of our margins disappearing, IMO.
Again, the powers that be want to encourage ranchers to torpedo their own market and once again have almost zero margin, work off-farm to subsidize consumers’ beef purchases, and thank them for their graciousness in letting the rancher invest all this capital, time, and for taking the inherent risks.
Why should the rancher agree to this?
As far as the potential for beef to sell off back to half its current price, not much chance IMO, even with herd rebuilding.
If most ranchers jumped on board, there’d be little chance of our margins disappearing, IMO.
Again, the powers that be want to encourage ranchers to torpedo their own market and once again have almost zero margin, work off-farm to subsidize consumers’ beef purchases, and thank them for their graciousness in letting the rancher invest all this capital, time, and for taking the inherent risks.
Why should the rancher agree to this?
As far as the potential for beef to sell off back to half its current price, not much chance IMO, even with herd rebuilding.
kenny thomas
Well-known member
For beef in the store I doubt we will ever see it half current prices.
For live cattle on the hoof its a definite possibility.
simme
Old Dumb Guy
Some info online in regard to weights, cuts, and such. Based on a 1300# YG3 steer.
Carcass weight of 806# (62%). Edible beef products of 639#. 21% of carcass is inedible bone, fat and connective tissue.
38% of the 639# will become ground beef. The rest steaks, roasts and other cuts.
The Chuck will be 29% of that 806# carcass - 234#. 35# of the chuck is inedible - bones and fat. 125# of the chuck will be ground and stew beef. Rest roasts, ribs and steaks.
The Rib will be 9% of the carcass, 73#. 9# inedible. 21# of ground and stew beef. Rest roasts, ribs and steaks.
The Loin will be 16% of the carcass, 129#. 30# inedible. 20# of ground and stew beef. Rest steaks and roasts.
The Round will be 22% of the carcass, 177#. 36# inedible. 3# of ground and stew beef. Rest steaks and roasts.
The Thin Cuts (Brisket, Plate and Flank) will be 19% of the carcass, 153#. 23# inedible. 90# of ground and stew beef. Rest brisket, flank and skirt steak.
Then Miscellaneous with 6# edible and 34# breaking fat loss.
So, there is your breakdown of burger vs cuts. And fat and bone loss. And which primal cut it came from. Obviously, the numbers change depending on the cuts and what gets ground. Info is from "the chart" attached.
Last Christmas, I purchased a whole beef tenderloin at Sam's. Choice and already trimmed (untrimmed whole tenderloin has a good bit of waste). $32/pound. Pork tenderloin was $3/pound. The beef was mighty fine. But the pork tenderloin is pretty tasty as well. With the beef tenderloin at 10 times the price of the pork, there is a pretty good premium for the beef.
Carcass weight of 806# (62%). Edible beef products of 639#. 21% of carcass is inedible bone, fat and connective tissue.
38% of the 639# will become ground beef. The rest steaks, roasts and other cuts.
The Chuck will be 29% of that 806# carcass - 234#. 35# of the chuck is inedible - bones and fat. 125# of the chuck will be ground and stew beef. Rest roasts, ribs and steaks.
The Rib will be 9% of the carcass, 73#. 9# inedible. 21# of ground and stew beef. Rest roasts, ribs and steaks.
The Loin will be 16% of the carcass, 129#. 30# inedible. 20# of ground and stew beef. Rest steaks and roasts.
The Round will be 22% of the carcass, 177#. 36# inedible. 3# of ground and stew beef. Rest steaks and roasts.
The Thin Cuts (Brisket, Plate and Flank) will be 19% of the carcass, 153#. 23# inedible. 90# of ground and stew beef. Rest brisket, flank and skirt steak.
Then Miscellaneous with 6# edible and 34# breaking fat loss.
So, there is your breakdown of burger vs cuts. And fat and bone loss. And which primal cut it came from. Obviously, the numbers change depending on the cuts and what gets ground. Info is from "the chart" attached.
Last Christmas, I purchased a whole beef tenderloin at Sam's. Choice and already trimmed (untrimmed whole tenderloin has a good bit of waste). $32/pound. Pork tenderloin was $3/pound. The beef was mighty fine. But the pork tenderloin is pretty tasty as well. With the beef tenderloin at 10 times the price of the pork, there is a pretty good premium for the beef.
A lot of that trim gets thrown in with extra lean ground beef too.
SBMF 2015
Well-known member
Most ranchers are lacking one very important factor in producing prime beef. . . . Feed
The western feedlots feed on days. The midwestern cattlemen feed for quality.
There’s a good reason that Chicago, Omaha, Sioux City, and St Paul stockyards surround the corn belt. We have unlimited feed resources.
They all figured out long ago that it was less expensive to raise cattle in the big grass states and ship them back to the Midwest to feed out than it was to try and ship enough feed west.
RDFF
Well-known member
St. Paul stockyards have been gone since April of 2008. Sioux Falls since June of 2009. Sioux City stockyards closed in March of 2002. Omaha stockyards closed in 1999. Chicago stockyards closed in July of 1971.
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SBMF 2015
Well-known member
Yes, but the reason why they were built is where the livestock was fed.
They closed because there wasn’t enough livestock to keep them open. Vertical infrastructure and packer owned feed yards bypassed the stockyards.
It was very surprising to me , talking with people who live only five hours southwest that no one feeds cattle out. They can’t raise enough corn. They raise hay and are either cow/calf guys or stockers.
Several folks on CT have mentioned that they don’t have a packing plant for fat cattle anywhere close. I can think of eight different plants that kill fat cattle within six hours of me. One is twenty minutes away.
The packing plants tend to be where the quality fat cattle are.
rocfarm
Well-known member
It’s possible, but not likely. About 5% chance IMO.
The new blanket 15% tariffs aren’t going to help it get there. And the age demographics of the ranching community is likely to push prices the other way as well.
But you are right. Never say never.
My base scenario is that prices on feeder cattle could head back to 220 CWT. I’m baking things into my operation to be resilient if that happens.
rocfarm
Well-known member
Yes, but we Texas ranchers still make money off of the deal. If we produce a calf that will feed to grade, the northerners up there will come down to Texas and buy them, at least sometimes. These last three summers I’m pretty sure I saw buyers come down here and pick up some of the better cattle and send them up there to feed on quality. It’s raised the average price of feeder cattle in Texas, I think. But no hard evidence.
Also, some of us in Texas are heading the quality route. There are deals out there to be had for ranchers who want to raise cattle that will grade well after finishing. One just has to ask around.
From my entire shopping experience down here in Texas, people ARE willing to pay primium prices for good cuts of beef. I do it a few times a year—spending about 100 on some ribeyes or NY strip or tenderloin each time. Last time I bought some Akuashi beef at Kroger. It was worth the price.
Good cattle x waygu bulls with the beef sold as American Waygu seems to be taking off in Texas lately as well. Some packers are willing to make deals with producers for providing these calves, and the rancher also gets exposure to the premium beef market. Seems to be a win/win for me. For the rancher it’s an easy switch. Just use Waygu bulls and keep the same quality angus/angus X type mommas.
kenny thomas
Well-known member
If feeders fall back to 2.20 thats still a long way from the 3.64 they were today. About 60% of current prices.
But was 3.70 Friday morning.
branxchar&charx
Well-known member
In case anyone was wondering, organ and offal "meats" are required to be declared on the label. The vast majority of hotdogs, bologna, etc are made up of trim from the various protein sources. 
Note: pork and pork hearts are listed as separate ingredients in this example.
Note: pork and pork hearts are listed as separate ingredients in this example.
rocfarm
Well-known member
I don’t think they will. But if the economy crashes, I think it’s possible.
My based scenario would be they’ll run between 3.20 and 4.00 as we rebuild the herd.
If ranchers play it smarter than they did in 2014, I think good prices could be here to stay.
I know I’m not going to chase this market. Going to stick to the original stocking rate and focus on adding value.
Looking like an El Niño year, so some people might start rebuilding. I think prices go up from here.
We have not seen the high yet for cows in Texas. Like 80% of the state is in a drought and a lot of the dense cattle areas are in severe drought. If the clouds ever cut loose cows will get crazy.
kenny thomas
Well-known member
Ok, what do you refer to as playing it smarter? I would love to see current prices be the normal.
