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Why Herefords are Vanishing
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<blockquote data-quote="buymorebulls" data-source="post: 688519" data-attributes="member: 7270"><p>Brandonm22, Most sane folks would agree that it is true the Grids change on a daily basis. It was even big news recently when the Choice-Select spread was inverted for a few days.</p><p></p><p>The fact of the matter is, the math still works, as I showed previously. And, like I said in my post, those were the last grid values that I personnally sold into, so I used them in my real world example.</p><p></p><p>For your benefit;</p><p></p><p>I'm not aware of AHA having published the actual values used in calculating $CHB, so for your sake, we can use the 3-yr rolling average that Angus Association uses in it's indexes. I'm sure these are similar to what the Hereford Association is using.:</p><p></p><p>Grid assumptions: </p><p>Quality components: </p><p>Prime premium (above Choice) $8.00 </p><p>CAB premium (above Choice) $3.50 </p><p>Choice-Select spread $11.00 </p><p>Standard discount $-15.00 </p><p> </p><p>Yield components: </p><p>YG 1 premium $3.00 </p><p>YG 2 premium $1.50 </p><p>YG 3 base $0.00 </p><p>YG 4 & 5 discount $-25.00 </p><p>Avg. carcass wt., lb. 816 </p><p>Heavyweight discount $-20.00 </p><p></p><p></p><p>Most folks will see that $8 and $11 (quality grade) are more than $3 and $1.50 (yield grade). SO, the QG components add/decrease value quicker than the YG components. (The $25 YG4 & YG5 discount doesn't usually affect folks that get their feeders managed and marketed in a timely manner!)</p><p></p><p>The comparison of the 2 bulls in my example doesn't require knowledge of the cow side genetics. The bulls $CHB index tells us their contribution to the resulting progeny. </p><p></p><p>No doubt that the cow side is a little more than 50% of the genetics(including mitochondrial) and important to how the animals kill, but all the progeny will not be 100% Select-Y4's if the cow genetics "stink" or 100% Prime-Y2's if the cows are "great"or even 100% Choice-Y2's. There will be variation in the group. (By the way, "stink" and "great" are very subjective terms and my banker doesn't utilize them in his profit/loss calculations.) For sure herds are different and have different needs. That's how a smart breeder can utilize the EPD's to adjust/improve his herd.</p><p></p><p>My example was meant to show the real world affects of REA vs. MARB EPD's on the bottom line. It does that.</p><p></p><p>The problem with "things like $CHB" and EPD's is not that they don't work, they do work. The problem is that breeders and producers first fail to understand them, then fail to utilize them in a prudent manner and eventually say "they don't work" when the results don't meet their emotions. Now that is "REAL WORLD".</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="buymorebulls, post: 688519, member: 7270"] Brandonm22, Most sane folks would agree that it is true the Grids change on a daily basis. It was even big news recently when the Choice-Select spread was inverted for a few days. The fact of the matter is, the math still works, as I showed previously. And, like I said in my post, those were the last grid values that I personnally sold into, so I used them in my real world example. For your benefit; I'm not aware of AHA having published the actual values used in calculating $CHB, so for your sake, we can use the 3-yr rolling average that Angus Association uses in it's indexes. I'm sure these are similar to what the Hereford Association is using.: Grid assumptions: Quality components: Prime premium (above Choice) $8.00 CAB premium (above Choice) $3.50 Choice-Select spread $11.00 Standard discount $-15.00 Yield components: YG 1 premium $3.00 YG 2 premium $1.50 YG 3 base $0.00 YG 4 & 5 discount $-25.00 Avg. carcass wt., lb. 816 Heavyweight discount $-20.00 Most folks will see that $8 and $11 (quality grade) are more than $3 and $1.50 (yield grade). SO, the QG components add/decrease value quicker than the YG components. (The $25 YG4 & YG5 discount doesn't usually affect folks that get their feeders managed and marketed in a timely manner!) The comparison of the 2 bulls in my example doesn't require knowledge of the cow side genetics. The bulls $CHB index tells us their contribution to the resulting progeny. No doubt that the cow side is a little more than 50% of the genetics(including mitochondrial) and important to how the animals kill, but all the progeny will not be 100% Select-Y4's if the cow genetics "stink" or 100% Prime-Y2's if the cows are "great"or even 100% Choice-Y2's. There will be variation in the group. (By the way, "stink" and "great" are very subjective terms and my banker doesn't utilize them in his profit/loss calculations.) For sure herds are different and have different needs. That's how a smart breeder can utilize the EPD's to adjust/improve his herd. My example was meant to show the real world affects of REA vs. MARB EPD's on the bottom line. It does that. The problem with "things like $CHB" and EPD's is not that they don't work, they do work. The problem is that breeders and producers first fail to understand them, then fail to utilize them in a prudent manner and eventually say "they don't work" when the results don't meet their emotions. Now that is "REAL WORLD". [/QUOTE]
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