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Why Herefords are Vanishing
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<blockquote data-quote="Herefords.US" data-source="post: 687006" data-attributes="member: 3972"><p>I first realized that there was something "wrong" with selection primarly by EPDs when I attended several dispersion sales a few years back. I had spent hours going over the catalogs picking the cattle with "the best" EPDs, marking them, studying their pedigrees, and preparing my own purchase list. Then when sale time came, I couldn't help but notice that some of the most noteworthy and successful Hereford cattle breeders were totally ignoring the cattle I had marked in my catalog and were bidding on and buying cattle with lesser and sometimes "below average" EPDs instead. After I saw it happen over and over again, I could only come to two possible conclusions. Either these very successful cattlemen had suddenly become totally ignorant in their craft or I still had a whole lot to learn about these so-called "magic" numbers and their importance - or lack thereof. The fallacy of my selection by EPDs was further supported when a number of the cattle that I purchased, with those STELLAR EPDs, were the very first to get sent to auction when actually put into production.</p><p></p><p>It took me 6 years of studying EPDs in specific cattle, and monitoring the movements in them through the twice yearly EPD adjustments, to finally realize that the most important number in EPDs is their accuracy. I agree with the assessment by Dr. Bob Hough of the Red Angus Assn. that an EPD with an accuracy of less than .4 is unreliable and EPDs only become somewhat trustworthy once that accuracy reaches .6 or more.</p><p></p><p>And that means that the EPDs of unproven Hereford bulls and virtually all Hereford cows, regardless of age, are unreliable.</p><p></p><p>But apparently some can just look at a couple of profit indices and declare a bull's "greatness" - even though he hasn't even sired a calf yet.</p><p></p><p>George</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Herefords.US, post: 687006, member: 3972"] I first realized that there was something "wrong" with selection primarly by EPDs when I attended several dispersion sales a few years back. I had spent hours going over the catalogs picking the cattle with "the best" EPDs, marking them, studying their pedigrees, and preparing my own purchase list. Then when sale time came, I couldn't help but notice that some of the most noteworthy and successful Hereford cattle breeders were totally ignoring the cattle I had marked in my catalog and were bidding on and buying cattle with lesser and sometimes "below average" EPDs instead. After I saw it happen over and over again, I could only come to two possible conclusions. Either these very successful cattlemen had suddenly become totally ignorant in their craft or I still had a whole lot to learn about these so-called "magic" numbers and their importance - or lack thereof. The fallacy of my selection by EPDs was further supported when a number of the cattle that I purchased, with those STELLAR EPDs, were the very first to get sent to auction when actually put into production. It took me 6 years of studying EPDs in specific cattle, and monitoring the movements in them through the twice yearly EPD adjustments, to finally realize that the most important number in EPDs is their accuracy. I agree with the assessment by Dr. Bob Hough of the Red Angus Assn. that an EPD with an accuracy of less than .4 is unreliable and EPDs only become somewhat trustworthy once that accuracy reaches .6 or more. And that means that the EPDs of unproven Hereford bulls and virtually all Hereford cows, regardless of age, are unreliable. But apparently some can just look at a couple of profit indices and declare a bull's "greatness" - even though he hasn't even sired a calf yet. George [/QUOTE]
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