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The beef cattle market over the next 10 years
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<blockquote data-quote="SRBeef" data-source="post: 983277" data-attributes="member: 7509"><p>I read an article recently that mentioned a slight drop in the ratio of heifers to steers in the US slaughter mix. The implication is that folks are finally starting to retain heifers. US beef herd is currently at 1942 levels. This may mean the decline in herd numbers is maybe coming out of a dive to level flight but not likely to increase significantly for 4-5 years if then.</p><p></p><p>As good beef calves get scarce compared to demand, black hide color will suddenly maybe be not so important. Producers will be looking more at traits than just color. I think you can start to see it at the upper midwest salebarns now - quality calves bringing top price even if they are not full black.</p><p></p><p>Dairy steers will fill the hamburger market but there will be more emphasis on quality beef-breed beef. Folks are more concerned every day about what they are eating and feeding their kids. At least the more profitable portion of the market is concerned.</p><p></p><p>Corn will come down a bit to around $4 if and when the US midwest gets a good weather year. Latest word I heard at a seminar recently is that we are likely in for a multi-year almost 1930's style drought across the midwest - last year was not just a one year anomaly. World wide weather patterns are changing.</p><p></p><p>If this is true, we will be looking at different, more efficient ways to produce quality beef. jmho.</p><p></p><p>Jim</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="SRBeef, post: 983277, member: 7509"] I read an article recently that mentioned a slight drop in the ratio of heifers to steers in the US slaughter mix. The implication is that folks are finally starting to retain heifers. US beef herd is currently at 1942 levels. This may mean the decline in herd numbers is maybe coming out of a dive to level flight but not likely to increase significantly for 4-5 years if then. As good beef calves get scarce compared to demand, black hide color will suddenly maybe be not so important. Producers will be looking more at traits than just color. I think you can start to see it at the upper midwest salebarns now - quality calves bringing top price even if they are not full black. Dairy steers will fill the hamburger market but there will be more emphasis on quality beef-breed beef. Folks are more concerned every day about what they are eating and feeding their kids. At least the more profitable portion of the market is concerned. Corn will come down a bit to around $4 if and when the US midwest gets a good weather year. Latest word I heard at a seminar recently is that we are likely in for a multi-year almost 1930's style drought across the midwest - last year was not just a one year anomaly. World wide weather patterns are changing. If this is true, we will be looking at different, more efficient ways to produce quality beef. jmho. Jim [/QUOTE]
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