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<blockquote data-quote="rocfarm" data-source="post: 1764628" data-attributes="member: 42715"><p>Before the rainprices for choice cow/calf pairs were around 1000. Also, some auctions even said in their market reports 'no demand for replacements right now' which seemed a good indicator to me that you'd get a good deal if you could find them. </p><p></p><p>These past few weeks have seeen them go up to 1200 to 1400 or so. But replacement heifers are expensive right now, from what I can tell. Seems you pay the similar price per pound for a 700# heifer as a 450# heifer, which even members on this forum say is not 'normal' in most years. However, I must confess I haven't been to the auction lately, only looked at their market reports.</p><p></p><p>But even up north, if you watch the YouTube videos of the soybean farmers, corn farmers, and farmer/feeders, there are soybean farmers that only made 2 bushel per acre and gave up harvesting, corn farmers just chopping for silage the crops they'd normally want to harvest for grain, and farmer/feeders weaning early because they are out of grass. Other guys who've preached that winter stockpile is the way to go are stocking up on hay because they don't have as much stockpile. Other guys saying that this year they never got a third cutting of their alfalfa and can't remember that happening. </p><p></p><p>And even with the rain, my place has only received about 12.5 inches of rainfall total this year. Normal rainfall is around 32 inches. Long term forecast is that there's a 50/50 chance La Niña will persist next year.</p><p></p><p>So it seems to me that 1) Cattle prices could drop in the short term because it's more economically efficient to send them to slaughter. 2) Our recent rain in Texas could be all we get for a while, and it's probably smarter to let grass in Texas recover a bit from the tough year this fall rather than trying to immediately restock and stressing already drought-stressed forage (maybe if you have irrigated fields this is not an issue) and 3) keeping stocking rate low relative to historical carrying capacity will give me</p><p>options next spring and fall whether the rains come or not.</p><p></p><p>But I think all can agree that, when the current drought ends, he who has stock will probably receive high prices for his stock.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="rocfarm, post: 1764628, member: 42715"] Before the rainprices for choice cow/calf pairs were around 1000. Also, some auctions even said in their market reports ‘no demand for replacements right now’ which seemed a good indicator to me that you’d get a good deal if you could find them. These past few weeks have seeen them go up to 1200 to 1400 or so. But replacement heifers are expensive right now, from what I can tell. Seems you pay the similar price per pound for a 700# heifer as a 450# heifer, which even members on this forum say is not ‘normal’ in most years. However, I must confess I haven’t been to the auction lately, only looked at their market reports. But even up north, if you watch the YouTube videos of the soybean farmers, corn farmers, and farmer/feeders, there are soybean farmers that only made 2 bushel per acre and gave up harvesting, corn farmers just chopping for silage the crops they’d normally want to harvest for grain, and farmer/feeders weaning early because they are out of grass. Other guys who’ve preached that winter stockpile is the way to go are stocking up on hay because they don’t have as much stockpile. Other guys saying that this year they never got a third cutting of their alfalfa and can’t remember that happening. And even with the rain, my place has only received about 12.5 inches of rainfall total this year. Normal rainfall is around 32 inches. Long term forecast is that there’s a 50/50 chance La Niña will persist next year. So it seems to me that 1) Cattle prices could drop in the short term because it’s more economically efficient to send them to slaughter. 2) Our recent rain in Texas could be all we get for a while, and it’s probably smarter to let grass in Texas recover a bit from the tough year this fall rather than trying to immediately restock and stressing already drought-stressed forage (maybe if you have irrigated fields this is not an issue) and 3) keeping stocking rate low relative to historical carrying capacity will give me options next spring and fall whether the rains come or not. But I think all can agree that, when the current drought ends, he who has stock will probably receive high prices for his stock. [/QUOTE]
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