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Seventh horse dies at Churchill Downs
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<blockquote data-quote="Son of Butch" data-source="post: 1804897" data-attributes="member: 14585"><p>Importance of post position in the Preakness matters a lot less with only 8 horses in the race.</p><p>History of Wins by post position in the Preakness, 1-2-3 each has won 10% of the races</p><p>4 12%</p><p>5 11%</p><p>6 14%</p><p>7 12%</p><p>8 9%</p><p>post 10+ each less than 2%</p><p>The shorter the race the more it matters to get a clean fast start out of the gate.</p><p>Post 1 has the shortest route, but if not first out of the gate they have to contend with the rail on 1 side which spooks some horses and horses on the other side pressuring them trying to cut them off.</p><p></p><p>I expect Mage will be the big emotional favorite on race day, dropping his odds and making him a sucker bet.</p><p></p><p>To me the best value bets on race day will be 5 Red Route One and 8 First Mission (depending on your adversity to risk)</p><p>RR One has the closing kick, but needs a better ride from his jockey. He can't get himself pinned 10 lengths off the lead</p><p>again and expect to catch this field in the home stretch. #3 Mage and First Mission are no slouches and can kick it too.</p><p></p><p>The Baffert and Brown horses #1 and #7 are serious threats too, but when betting I try to look for best value.</p><p>94% of the time I'll observe the horses in the post parade before placing a bet.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Son of Butch, post: 1804897, member: 14585"] Importance of post position in the Preakness matters a lot less with only 8 horses in the race. History of Wins by post position in the Preakness, 1-2-3 each has won 10% of the races 4 12% 5 11% 6 14% 7 12% 8 9% post 10+ each less than 2% The shorter the race the more it matters to get a clean fast start out of the gate. Post 1 has the shortest route, but if not first out of the gate they have to contend with the rail on 1 side which spooks some horses and horses on the other side pressuring them trying to cut them off. I expect Mage will be the big emotional favorite on race day, dropping his odds and making him a sucker bet. To me the best value bets on race day will be 5 Red Route One and 8 First Mission (depending on your adversity to risk) RR One has the closing kick, but needs a better ride from his jockey. He can't get himself pinned 10 lengths off the lead again and expect to catch this field in the home stretch. #3 Mage and First Mission are no slouches and can kick it too. The Baffert and Brown horses #1 and #7 are serious threats too, but when betting I try to look for best value. 94% of the time I'll observe the horses in the post parade before placing a bet. [/QUOTE]
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Seventh horse dies at Churchill Downs
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