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Coffee Shop
Predicting the future
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<blockquote data-quote="SRBeef" data-source="post: 1117375" data-attributes="member: 7509"><p>US retail beef prices are still very modest by world standards.</p><p></p><p>The US cattle herd is still very low and not going to change very quickly. It can't.</p><p></p><p>World population is increasing and becoming wealthier and they want beef.</p><p></p><p>Most people are not looking at chicken or pork as a direct substitute for beef. They want beef.</p><p></p><p>I am growing my herd by retaining heifers. That removes them from the near term beef supply.</p><p></p><p>It takes 4 to five years to make a net increase in the US beef herd.</p><p></p><p>I don't think the current cattle situation will change dramatically in the near future. There will continue to be a steady but slow increase in fat prices as heifers are retained, culls sold.</p><p></p><p>Drought conditions cause an increase in liquidations causing pauses in fat price increases but the increase will continue as liquidations taper off...there aren't a whole lot of cattle left to liquidate.</p><p></p><p>Jmho</p><p></p><p>Jim</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="SRBeef, post: 1117375, member: 7509"] US retail beef prices are still very modest by world standards. The US cattle herd is still very low and not going to change very quickly. It can't. World population is increasing and becoming wealthier and they want beef. Most people are not looking at chicken or pork as a direct substitute for beef. They want beef. I am growing my herd by retaining heifers. That removes them from the near term beef supply. It takes 4 to five years to make a net increase in the US beef herd. I don't think the current cattle situation will change dramatically in the near future. There will continue to be a steady but slow increase in fat prices as heifers are retained, culls sold. Drought conditions cause an increase in liquidations causing pauses in fat price increases but the increase will continue as liquidations taper off...there aren't a whole lot of cattle left to liquidate. Jmho Jim [/QUOTE]
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