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Coffee Shop
Predicting the future
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<blockquote data-quote="Jogeephus" data-source="post: 1117298" data-attributes="member: 4362"><p>I think most everyone is pleased with cattle prices but I think many may also have some concern as well and I'm wondering what people's predictions are for the future and if any are planning on expanding or just sitting tight. I know there are a lot of factors like drought and reduction of inventory in the west but seeing 4 wt calves bringing $1000 you gotta wonder how can this pencil out from the barn to the grocery shelf.</p><p></p><p>I've always been in the camp that is leery of high beef prices since alternatives such as chicken or pork can so easily cut into the market and cause a surplus of beef which can drive down the price to an artificially low price and the producer ends up being left to shoulder the burden.</p><p></p><p>After spending some time looking at the price spread between various types of meat at a grocery store I was surprised to see how little spread there was between chicken, pork and beef and I wonder if my fear of beef being scrapped from people's menu's is still as valid as it once was.</p><p></p><p>I'm just wondering what others take on this situation is. Myself, I plan on expanding my herd with holding back some replacements. I don't plan on buying any or doing anything rash because I'd rather lose some opportunity rather than money.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Jogeephus, post: 1117298, member: 4362"] I think most everyone is pleased with cattle prices but I think many may also have some concern as well and I'm wondering what people's predictions are for the future and if any are planning on expanding or just sitting tight. I know there are a lot of factors like drought and reduction of inventory in the west but seeing 4 wt calves bringing $1000 you gotta wonder how can this pencil out from the barn to the grocery shelf. I've always been in the camp that is leery of high beef prices since alternatives such as chicken or pork can so easily cut into the market and cause a surplus of beef which can drive down the price to an artificially low price and the producer ends up being left to shoulder the burden. After spending some time looking at the price spread between various types of meat at a grocery store I was surprised to see how little spread there was between chicken, pork and beef and I wonder if my fear of beef being scrapped from people's menu's is still as valid as it once was. I'm just wondering what others take on this situation is. Myself, I plan on expanding my herd with holding back some replacements. I don't plan on buying any or doing anything rash because I'd rather lose some opportunity rather than money. [/QUOTE]
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