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<blockquote data-quote="dun" data-source="post: 285937" data-attributes="member: 34"><p>This article is long and tedious. Pretty much what is says is the wehat market has gone nuts and the corn and bean market may follow suit. USDA lowered the crop predictions this month</p><p></p><p>This guy is the manager of a coop near here and puts out this weekly letter </p><p>on their website. He explains pretty well whats going on in the markets.</p><p></p><p></p><p>It's getting cold! 10/13/2006</p><p>Dear Friends:</p><p>As the central Illinois harvest continues to move</p><p>ahead, we have had a new element added to the</p><p>mix - cold temperatures. About 5:00 Wednesday</p><p>night, a cold front entered the area sending the</p><p>mercury in to its hole looking for cover and sent</p><p>farmers into their closets looking for their coveralls.</p><p>Yesterday morning, we had our first frost of the season</p><p>as morning lows came in around 28 degrees. The</p><p>weatherman is calling for temperatures to return to</p><p>normal, between the mid 40's to 60's over the weekend.</p><p>However, he sure got our attention the last couple of</p><p>days.</p><p>As far as the harvest, 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain during</p><p>the night Tuesday slowed down the progress of the</p><p>soybean harvest for a day or so. However the corn</p><p>harvest is still progressing nicely. Based on our best</p><p>guess, we believe the local corn harvest is now 74%</p><p>complete, while the local soybean harvest has hit the</p><p>80% mark.</p><p>While the rain Tuesday night was not very large, it</p><p>was certainly welcome. I haven't heard of any field</p><p>fires yet this year (there was a combine fire this week,</p><p>but it wasn't directly related to the dry conditions).</p><p>However, the dust being discharged from the back of</p><p>combines is just hanging in the air. I heard of a car</p><p>wreck over in the Champaign area this week due to poor</p><p>visibility from the hanging dust clouds. At least for</p><p>a couple of days, the rain has helped the dust issue</p><p>tremendously.</p><p>As far as the US as a whole, corn harvest is now</p><p>29% complete. State by state here in the corn belt,</p><p>progress is: Missouri 84%, Kansas 69%, Illinois 44%,</p><p>Indiana 19%, Nebraska 18%, Iowa 17%, North Dakota</p><p>17%, South Dakota 16%, Wisconsin 10%, and Ohio,</p><p>Michigan and Minnesota are all at 8%.</p><p>The US soybean harvest is now 47% complete. Again,</p><p>state by state here in the corn belt is: North Dakota 77%,</p><p>Iowa 68%, Minnesota 62%, South Dakota 52%,</p><p>Nebraska 49%, Illinois 47%, Missouri 37%, Kansas 32%,</p><p>Wisconsin 22%, Michigan 19%, Indiana 18%, and Ohio</p><p>15%.</p><p>The county just north of here (Macon County, Illinois)</p><p>released the results of their 2006 Macon County Corn and</p><p>Soybean Plots this week. In corn, they had 54 varieties</p><p>in the plot which ranged from 144.2 bushels per acre up</p><p>to 249.2 bpa, for an entire plot average of 200.6. In</p><p>soybeans, they had 51 varieties in the plot which ranged</p><p>from 48.7 bpa up to 70.9 bpa. The soybean plot averaged</p><p>59.9 bpa. (These average yields are well above what we</p><p>will average in Shelby and Christian County.)</p><p>I know this is corn and soybean country, but most</p><p>of the agricultural news I picked up this week all</p><p>concerned wheat. It has been a wild ride for wheat</p><p>over the last week and a half, and I am not sure</p><p>that it is anywhere near being over. Let me give you</p><p>a quick run down on some of the excitement in</p><p>wheat here lately. First of all, drought conditions in</p><p>various parts of the world are causing some real concern</p><p>about world wheat supplies this next year. The</p><p>Australian Wheat Board announced this week that</p><p>they expect their wheat crop to total 11.5 million</p><p>metric tons as compared to 25.0 mmt last year.</p><p>Because of this, they have suspended wheat exports</p><p>for the time being in order to protect their domestic</p><p>supply. The US Ag Attaché to Brazil lowered estimates</p><p>on the Brazilian wheat crop to 2.4 mmt vs. a crop of</p><p>4.8 mmt last year. Russian consultants predicted</p><p>the Russian wheat crop at 43 mmt vs. 47.7 mmt last</p><p>year. The government of Ukraine has suspended exports</p><p>of wheat due to grain companies refusal to meet the</p><p>government's terms and conditions for increasing their</p><p>country's strategic wheat reserve... And so on. No</p><p>good news anywhere to speak of (except some good</p><p>rains this week in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas,</p><p>which may lead to a better US crop next year).</p><p>When you add to this, all of the games being played</p><p>in the wheat spreads (which I talked about last week),</p><p>the price of wheat has sky rocketed. On the Chicago</p><p>Board of Trade, wheat futures have closed on "limit up"</p><p>moves four times so far this month, and prices have hit</p><p>levels that are at 10 year highs. When will it all end?</p><p>The answer to that question is not currently known.</p><p>However, the volatility will most likely continue until the</p><p>world gets comfortable that old crop wheat supplies</p><p>won't run out.</p><p>On Thursday, the USDA released their October</p><p>Crop Production Estimates, and man did they</p><p>surprise some people. While most of the trade</p><p>was trying to predict how much the USDA would raise</p><p>their corn production number, the USDA actually lowered</p><p>it. The September corn production estimate was 11.114</p><p>billion bushels. In October, their new number is 10.905</p><p>billion. In soybeans, the production estimate went up,</p><p>but not as much as expected. The USDA September</p><p>number was 3.093 billion bushels. The October number</p><p>is 3.189 billion.</p><p>The first case of soybean rust was found in Illinois</p><p>and in seven counties in Western Kentucky over the last</p><p>couple of weeks, but it is late enough that it won't cause</p><p>any crop damage or yield loss. The Illinois county where</p><p>it was found is in Pope County. Pope County is in</p><p>extreme southern Illinois, located in the heart of the</p><p>Shawnee National Forest. It borders the state of Kentucky,</p><p>and is probably only about 40 miles from Indiana. Since</p><p>the rust spores can not winter in freezing conditions, it</p><p>will be everyone's hopes the get some exteme cold in</p><p>southern Illinois this winter. I will share more news on</p><p>this as I get it.</p><p>I don't know what to tell you about grain prices, except</p><p>hang on for the ride, folks. What a crazy week. I already</p><p>told you a little about why the wheat market went up so</p><p>much this week, but who would have guessed that corn</p><p>and soybeans would have followed. Are you ready for</p><p>these prices? Here you go. The closeing cash prices</p><p>for grain in Assumption tonight are: corn $2.98 (up 46</p><p>cents for the week), soybeans $5.61 (up 34 cents),</p><p>and wheat $4.64 (up 61 cents for the week).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="dun, post: 285937, member: 34"] This article is long and tedious. Pretty much what is says is the wehat market has gone nuts and the corn and bean market may follow suit. USDA lowered the crop predictions this month This guy is the manager of a coop near here and puts out this weekly letter on their website. He explains pretty well whats going on in the markets. It's getting cold! 10/13/2006 Dear Friends: As the central Illinois harvest continues to move ahead, we have had a new element added to the mix - cold temperatures. About 5:00 Wednesday night, a cold front entered the area sending the mercury in to its hole looking for cover and sent farmers into their closets looking for their coveralls. Yesterday morning, we had our first frost of the season as morning lows came in around 28 degrees. The weatherman is calling for temperatures to return to normal, between the mid 40's to 60's over the weekend. However, he sure got our attention the last couple of days. As far as the harvest, 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain during the night Tuesday slowed down the progress of the soybean harvest for a day or so. However the corn harvest is still progressing nicely. Based on our best guess, we believe the local corn harvest is now 74% complete, while the local soybean harvest has hit the 80% mark. While the rain Tuesday night was not very large, it was certainly welcome. I haven't heard of any field fires yet this year (there was a combine fire this week, but it wasn't directly related to the dry conditions). However, the dust being discharged from the back of combines is just hanging in the air. I heard of a car wreck over in the Champaign area this week due to poor visibility from the hanging dust clouds. At least for a couple of days, the rain has helped the dust issue tremendously. As far as the US as a whole, corn harvest is now 29% complete. State by state here in the corn belt, progress is: Missouri 84%, Kansas 69%, Illinois 44%, Indiana 19%, Nebraska 18%, Iowa 17%, North Dakota 17%, South Dakota 16%, Wisconsin 10%, and Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota are all at 8%. The US soybean harvest is now 47% complete. Again, state by state here in the corn belt is: North Dakota 77%, Iowa 68%, Minnesota 62%, South Dakota 52%, Nebraska 49%, Illinois 47%, Missouri 37%, Kansas 32%, Wisconsin 22%, Michigan 19%, Indiana 18%, and Ohio 15%. The county just north of here (Macon County, Illinois) released the results of their 2006 Macon County Corn and Soybean Plots this week. In corn, they had 54 varieties in the plot which ranged from 144.2 bushels per acre up to 249.2 bpa, for an entire plot average of 200.6. In soybeans, they had 51 varieties in the plot which ranged from 48.7 bpa up to 70.9 bpa. The soybean plot averaged 59.9 bpa. (These average yields are well above what we will average in Shelby and Christian County.) I know this is corn and soybean country, but most of the agricultural news I picked up this week all concerned wheat. It has been a wild ride for wheat over the last week and a half, and I am not sure that it is anywhere near being over. Let me give you a quick run down on some of the excitement in wheat here lately. First of all, drought conditions in various parts of the world are causing some real concern about world wheat supplies this next year. The Australian Wheat Board announced this week that they expect their wheat crop to total 11.5 million metric tons as compared to 25.0 mmt last year. Because of this, they have suspended wheat exports for the time being in order to protect their domestic supply. The US Ag Attaché to Brazil lowered estimates on the Brazilian wheat crop to 2.4 mmt vs. a crop of 4.8 mmt last year. Russian consultants predicted the Russian wheat crop at 43 mmt vs. 47.7 mmt last year. The government of Ukraine has suspended exports of wheat due to grain companies refusal to meet the government's terms and conditions for increasing their country's strategic wheat reserve... And so on. No good news anywhere to speak of (except some good rains this week in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, which may lead to a better US crop next year). When you add to this, all of the games being played in the wheat spreads (which I talked about last week), the price of wheat has sky rocketed. On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures have closed on "limit up" moves four times so far this month, and prices have hit levels that are at 10 year highs. When will it all end? The answer to that question is not currently known. However, the volatility will most likely continue until the world gets comfortable that old crop wheat supplies won't run out. On Thursday, the USDA released their October Crop Production Estimates, and man did they surprise some people. While most of the trade was trying to predict how much the USDA would raise their corn production number, the USDA actually lowered it. The September corn production estimate was 11.114 billion bushels. In October, their new number is 10.905 billion. In soybeans, the production estimate went up, but not as much as expected. The USDA September number was 3.093 billion bushels. The October number is 3.189 billion. The first case of soybean rust was found in Illinois and in seven counties in Western Kentucky over the last couple of weeks, but it is late enough that it won't cause any crop damage or yield loss. The Illinois county where it was found is in Pope County. Pope County is in extreme southern Illinois, located in the heart of the Shawnee National Forest. It borders the state of Kentucky, and is probably only about 40 miles from Indiana. Since the rust spores can not winter in freezing conditions, it will be everyone's hopes the get some exteme cold in southern Illinois this winter. I will share more news on this as I get it. I don't know what to tell you about grain prices, except hang on for the ride, folks. What a crazy week. I already told you a little about why the wheat market went up so much this week, but who would have guessed that corn and soybeans would have followed. Are you ready for these prices? Here you go. The closeing cash prices for grain in Assumption tonight are: corn $2.98 (up 46 cents for the week), soybeans $5.61 (up 34 cents), and wheat $4.64 (up 61 cents for the week). [/QUOTE]
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