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<blockquote data-quote="farmerjan" data-source="post: 1397938" data-attributes="member: 25884"><p>This is a decent time to buy cattle. But, there is no guarantee they will stay where they are, and the talk is that they will stagnate for several more years. That's the "talk". Talk had it that prices would stay up until 2016 or 2017 because the cow herd numbers would take at least that long to rebuild.... well guess what, the prices crashed to HALF or less of what they were in 2014 and early 2015. I don't think they will lose another 50% of their value....but if the economy of this country can't get going all bets are off. And if the liberal *%#$@* idiots don't quit trying to stop the new administration from at least trying to fix some of this mess, then we are going to go no where.</p><p></p><p>All that said, we have bought some and continue to buy and sell some. We had borrowed to be able to expand, BEFORE it got crazy and I wish that we had sold a third of the cows when it hit the highs in 2014. We could have sold 40 and bought back 70 or more for the same or less money. HINDSIGHT..</p><p></p><p>I would not touch your 401K. I would only put in what your company matches, take any extra and put it towards cows. I would also be inclined to buy another 30 or so bred cows or cow/calf pairs. Bank or farm credit loan...lowest interest you can find. NOT FANCY stuff as Dave has said. Just decent stuff that can be had in alot of places for less than 1000 a piece. We are buying stuff in the 900 range avg. Our last 19 lt weight heifers paid for the 10 bred cows we bought that are due to calve this spring. We still have nearly all the mommas of those 19 heifers also due to calve in the spring. In 2 years you ought to be able to pay off most of the borrowed money on the calf sales at TODAYS prices. That's not figuring what it will cost you to keep the cows, but if the land is available to rent/lease; and it doesn't require alot of work like fences, then the third year SHOULD find you coming out somewhat near even. If something happens, and you lose the lease, you will hopefully be able to sell the cows as pairs or with calves by their side for at least what you have in them and pay off the loan with no loss. In the process you should be able to keep 5-10 of the best heifers to add to the herd, and to cover any sales of old or open cows. </p><p></p><p>It's a gamble at this point. DO NOT QUIT your job, keep it for as long as you can to see if this will work. Plus a couple more things to consider. HEALTH CARE; do you have it through work? Who knows what will happen in the next couple of years. And at the outside, even if it gets cheaper or more available....what happens if you get hurt and you don't have it because you don't have that job.....Take it from someone who is older, and about to lose mine through no fault of my own, with several years left before I am eligible for medicare....</p><p></p><p>How long will your 401K last if you do retire at 42?...you won't be eligible for SS for a minimum of 20 years for reduced benefits, if it is even still there by then. With everything paid for, those cows will hopefully give you a small paycheck...but what if you have a disaster and you lose even 10 calves....There goes your paycheck. </p><p></p><p>Not trying to be negative. Just don't get yourself in too deep, going from 30 to 100 in one fell swoop. Maybe try doubling your numbers with some fair to decent cows...not tripling. Keep your heifers to heavier weights, keep the steers to heavier weights on the extra land. Utilize the land with what you already have available so you don't have so much invested. </p><p></p><p>If you can get the "family land" do it as a BUSINESS venture; legal lease, so that you have control for the lease period, so everyone knows that they are getting and not getting, so that there are NO hard feelings if it doesn't work and you get out at the end. If it works, then great. Try to buy them out, do a lease/purchase...BUT DO IT as a business deal. Protect yourself and your wife.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="farmerjan, post: 1397938, member: 25884"] This is a decent time to buy cattle. But, there is no guarantee they will stay where they are, and the talk is that they will stagnate for several more years. That's the "talk". Talk had it that prices would stay up until 2016 or 2017 because the cow herd numbers would take at least that long to rebuild.... well guess what, the prices crashed to HALF or less of what they were in 2014 and early 2015. I don't think they will lose another 50% of their value....but if the economy of this country can't get going all bets are off. And if the liberal *%#$@* idiots don't quit trying to stop the new administration from at least trying to fix some of this mess, then we are going to go no where. All that said, we have bought some and continue to buy and sell some. We had borrowed to be able to expand, BEFORE it got crazy and I wish that we had sold a third of the cows when it hit the highs in 2014. We could have sold 40 and bought back 70 or more for the same or less money. HINDSIGHT.. I would not touch your 401K. I would only put in what your company matches, take any extra and put it towards cows. I would also be inclined to buy another 30 or so bred cows or cow/calf pairs. Bank or farm credit loan...lowest interest you can find. NOT FANCY stuff as Dave has said. Just decent stuff that can be had in alot of places for less than 1000 a piece. We are buying stuff in the 900 range avg. Our last 19 lt weight heifers paid for the 10 bred cows we bought that are due to calve this spring. We still have nearly all the mommas of those 19 heifers also due to calve in the spring. In 2 years you ought to be able to pay off most of the borrowed money on the calf sales at TODAYS prices. That's not figuring what it will cost you to keep the cows, but if the land is available to rent/lease; and it doesn't require alot of work like fences, then the third year SHOULD find you coming out somewhat near even. If something happens, and you lose the lease, you will hopefully be able to sell the cows as pairs or with calves by their side for at least what you have in them and pay off the loan with no loss. In the process you should be able to keep 5-10 of the best heifers to add to the herd, and to cover any sales of old or open cows. It's a gamble at this point. DO NOT QUIT your job, keep it for as long as you can to see if this will work. Plus a couple more things to consider. HEALTH CARE; do you have it through work? Who knows what will happen in the next couple of years. And at the outside, even if it gets cheaper or more available....what happens if you get hurt and you don't have it because you don't have that job.....Take it from someone who is older, and about to lose mine through no fault of my own, with several years left before I am eligible for medicare.... How long will your 401K last if you do retire at 42?...you won't be eligible for SS for a minimum of 20 years for reduced benefits, if it is even still there by then. With everything paid for, those cows will hopefully give you a small paycheck...but what if you have a disaster and you lose even 10 calves....There goes your paycheck. Not trying to be negative. Just don't get yourself in too deep, going from 30 to 100 in one fell swoop. Maybe try doubling your numbers with some fair to decent cows...not tripling. Keep your heifers to heavier weights, keep the steers to heavier weights on the extra land. Utilize the land with what you already have available so you don't have so much invested. If you can get the "family land" do it as a BUSINESS venture; legal lease, so that you have control for the lease period, so everyone knows that they are getting and not getting, so that there are NO hard feelings if it doesn't work and you get out at the end. If it works, then great. Try to buy them out, do a lease/purchase...BUT DO IT as a business deal. Protect yourself and your wife. [/QUOTE]
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