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EPD's What Do They Mean?
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<blockquote data-quote="norriscathy" data-source="post: 168021" data-attributes="member: 2961"><p>In my humble and uninformed opinon; no one knows what the EDP numbers mean.</p><p></p><p>WHAT DOES A +2 BIRTH WEIGHT EPD MEAN?</p><p></p><p>Don't think it means the bull will actually hit an +2. The statistical odds of hitting one number are probably unbelievably high. More than likely the +2 is the center of a range of numbers. With a standard deviation of 5# our box (range) would be from +22 to a -18 BW (4 standard deviations). If the standard deviation is .5 then our box is from +4 to 0. Which box is it? Don't know; as far as I know that information is not readily available.</p><p></p><p>WHAT DOES AN "ACCURACY" OF 30% MEAN?</p><p></p><p>Does this mean they are only 30% confident that their results are correct? I hope not; you'd do better throwing darts at a Ouija Board. I know of no one that what do any kind of statistical work with out a 90% to 95% confidence level that their work was correct. So let's give them the benefit of the doubt on this one. Does the 30% accuracy mean the bull will have a +2 BW EPD within a 30% range; +1.4 to +2.6; kind of similar to standard deviation? I think not; because then a 60% accuracy would mean a range of +.8 to +3.2; actually a worse result than 30%. We all "know" 60% is better than 30%. Therefore is is a reasonable assumption to believe that a 30% "accuracy" is a 30% probability.</p><p></p><p>A 30% PROBABILITY OF SOMETHING HAPPENING ALSO MEANS THERE IS A 70 % PROBABILITY IT WON"T HAPPEN. </p><p></p><p>So now we have a +2 BW EPD being anywhere from a -18 to a +22 with a 70% chance it will be nowhere in that range!</p><p></p><p></p><p>Would someone with a little knowledge please help my old and feeble mind understand what these numbers mean!!!!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="norriscathy, post: 168021, member: 2961"] In my humble and uninformed opinon; no one knows what the EDP numbers mean. WHAT DOES A +2 BIRTH WEIGHT EPD MEAN? Don't think it means the bull will actually hit an +2. The statistical odds of hitting one number are probably unbelievably high. More than likely the +2 is the center of a range of numbers. With a standard deviation of 5# our box (range) would be from +22 to a -18 BW (4 standard deviations). If the standard deviation is .5 then our box is from +4 to 0. Which box is it? Don't know; as far as I know that information is not readily available. WHAT DOES AN "ACCURACY" OF 30% MEAN? Does this mean they are only 30% confident that their results are correct? I hope not; you'd do better throwing darts at a Ouija Board. I know of no one that what do any kind of statistical work with out a 90% to 95% confidence level that their work was correct. So let's give them the benefit of the doubt on this one. Does the 30% accuracy mean the bull will have a +2 BW EPD within a 30% range; +1.4 to +2.6; kind of similar to standard deviation? I think not; because then a 60% accuracy would mean a range of +.8 to +3.2; actually a worse result than 30%. We all "know" 60% is better than 30%. Therefore is is a reasonable assumption to believe that a 30% "accuracy" is a 30% probability. A 30% PROBABILITY OF SOMETHING HAPPENING ALSO MEANS THERE IS A 70 % PROBABILITY IT WON"T HAPPEN. So now we have a +2 BW EPD being anywhere from a -18 to a +22 with a 70% chance it will be nowhere in that range! Would someone with a little knowledge please help my old and feeble mind understand what these numbers mean!!!! [/QUOTE]
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