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Culling by age?
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<blockquote data-quote="Jafruech" data-source="post: 1660866" data-attributes="member: 24025"><p>I understand the thinking behind what you're saying, and I've been to several marketing and management groups that think along the same lines. I think it depends what your goals are. For my goals it would take me in the wrong direction. The risk mitigation piece and profitability goes far beyond a simple equation of asset value and replacement which is what that model is essentially based off of. </p><p></p><p>The problem with buying a bred heifer is she is an unknown value. The cow is a proven value, with proven fertility, longevity, udders, etc. If they heifer fails to breed back I'm going to lose more than if the cow does. </p><p></p><p>For one you have to consider the value of having those kind of genetics kept in your herd...from year 10-18 I've gotten 5 replacements from her. It's hard to quantify the value of great genetics in your cows...and I will keep praying for heifers out of her till she stops breeding. Unless you're running stockers, genetics are an important aspect of profitability. </p><p></p><p>Here's the problem...I could sell her at 10 years and get a bred Heifer for maybe $300 difference....but that heifer would have to produce for 9 years....again...there's as much risk in introducing an unknown value as the known value failing to perform.</p><p></p><p>Most of the things you mention as risk are mitigated by the other culling criteria. If she doesn't breed back in the first 2 cycles then she will be culled. Chances are she will still be bred when I sell her at that point and the price gap for a replacement is small. R If she starts having a hard time maintaining condition... same...so that leaves injury or death of natural causes...which...by introducing an unknown value to your herd...are risks anyway. </p><p></p><p>Not sure how you think I would lose 3 years profit lol. You must by some expensive cows. </p><p></p><p>3 years calves x 600lbs x 158=cwt=$2844 </p><p></p><p>Sell old bred cow-$800 (might be able to get a bit more but I can get that pretty easily)</p><p></p><p>$3644 -$280 per year cost for cow =$840....so $2804 net profit for those 3 years. I pay $1100 for my replacements when I purchase them. So given her cull value I'm not even losing half of 1 year's profit. </p><p></p><p></p><p>But again my numbers for what I can sell and replace for are probably not yours. My marketing and my goals for my herd are different than yours. Just my opinion though.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Jafruech, post: 1660866, member: 24025"] I understand the thinking behind what you're saying, and I've been to several marketing and management groups that think along the same lines. I think it depends what your goals are. For my goals it would take me in the wrong direction. The risk mitigation piece and profitability goes far beyond a simple equation of asset value and replacement which is what that model is essentially based off of. The problem with buying a bred heifer is she is an unknown value. The cow is a proven value, with proven fertility, longevity, udders, etc. If they heifer fails to breed back I'm going to lose more than if the cow does. For one you have to consider the value of having those kind of genetics kept in your herd...from year 10-18 I've gotten 5 replacements from her. It's hard to quantify the value of great genetics in your cows...and I will keep praying for heifers out of her till she stops breeding. Unless you're running stockers, genetics are an important aspect of profitability. Here's the problem...I could sell her at 10 years and get a bred Heifer for maybe $300 difference....but that heifer would have to produce for 9 years....again...there's as much risk in introducing an unknown value as the known value failing to perform. Most of the things you mention as risk are mitigated by the other culling criteria. If she doesn't breed back in the first 2 cycles then she will be culled. Chances are she will still be bred when I sell her at that point and the price gap for a replacement is small. R If she starts having a hard time maintaining condition... same...so that leaves injury or death of natural causes...which...by introducing an unknown value to your herd...are risks anyway. Not sure how you think I would lose 3 years profit lol. You must by some expensive cows. 3 years calves x 600lbs x 158=cwt=$2844 Sell old bred cow-$800 (might be able to get a bit more but I can get that pretty easily) $3644 -$280 per year cost for cow =$840....so $2804 net profit for those 3 years. I pay $1100 for my replacements when I purchase them. So given her cull value I'm not even losing half of 1 year's profit. But again my numbers for what I can sell and replace for are probably not yours. My marketing and my goals for my herd are different than yours. Just my opinion though. [/QUOTE]
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