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Caustic's Crystal Ball
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<blockquote data-quote="Stocker Steve" data-source="post: 807599" data-attributes="member: 1715"><p>The sharp pencil folks state that most producers do not capture all the costs of production, and that $150/cwt calves are needed to trigger cow herd expansion. Seems reasonable to me if you want to focus on market price rather than your own operation.</p><p></p><p>The sustainable folks state that producers have to reduce the amount of (increasingly expensive) inputs, and that mob grazing is a great tool to do this. Seems reasonable to me if you want to focus on variable cost that you control and thus buy in less material.</p><p></p><p>My 2011 gross margin projections look OK for all enterprises - - but I think the underlying issue is how much OH can you support for a beef animal. Can you afford to renovate adding lime and P and K and seed??? Can you afford to put in fence and water??? Can you afford to buy the hobby farm next door??? Can you afford to replace a tractor???</p><p></p><p>I think we all need to focus our niche even at these better 2011 prices. My calves did not sell for $150. <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite3" alt=":(" title="Frown :(" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":(" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Stocker Steve, post: 807599, member: 1715"] The sharp pencil folks state that most producers do not capture all the costs of production, and that $150/cwt calves are needed to trigger cow herd expansion. Seems reasonable to me if you want to focus on market price rather than your own operation. The sustainable folks state that producers have to reduce the amount of (increasingly expensive) inputs, and that mob grazing is a great tool to do this. Seems reasonable to me if you want to focus on variable cost that you control and thus buy in less material. My 2011 gross margin projections look OK for all enterprises - - but I think the underlying issue is how much OH can you support for a beef animal. Can you afford to renovate adding lime and P and K and seed??? Can you afford to put in fence and water??? Can you afford to buy the hobby farm next door??? Can you afford to replace a tractor??? I think we all need to focus our niche even at these better 2011 prices. My calves did not sell for $150. :( [/QUOTE]
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